Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
401 PM EST Thursday Dec 5 2013
offshore high pressure will extend over the area through Friday. A
cold front will approach Friday night and will cross the region on
Saturday. A stronger cold front will cross the region Tuesday.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...isolated shower threat will continue over
coastal plains into early evening wtih low amplitude short WV. Latest
models generally agree that upstream activity over southeast SC will
dissipate as it approaches...thus do not plan probability of precipitation for tonight. With
some cloudiness and winds not expected to decouple...do not expect
widespread dense fog development over land tonight...appears to be more
of a lower stratus set up. Coastal waters will likely see some sea
fog which will impact adjacent coastal sections...and have continued
areas of fog/patchy dense fog wording there. Min temperatures mainly around
Short term /Friday/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...warm sector conditions with less cloud cover
expected for Friday as upper ridge over southeast US builds slightly. Low
level thicknesses near 1390 M support maximum temperatures inland of water near
80 degrees which will approach daily record highs. Southern obx and S coast
will see highs closer to 70 with S-SW wind off water.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...a very active period is in store for much of
eastern NC as we board a rollercoaster of varying temperatures and weather. An
anafront will be approaching the area Friday night/Saturday morning
giving way to a non-diurnal temperature curve for Saturday. The front will
move northwest-southeast through middle-day Saturday. Cold air advection/northerly flow will
develop behind the front...collocated with precipitation allowing
temperatures to slowly drop throughout the latter part of the afternoon.
The front will stall along the Panhandle of Florida. High pressure
from the Midwest will build into the area briefly Saturday
night/early Sunday. However...with a deepening trough taking shape
in the southern rockies...deformation will develop Sunday across the
eastern Continental U.S.. this will aid in surface low development across the
pre-existing axis of vorticity/front. Models are in good agreement
depicting two distinct surface low development...one along the Gulf
Coast states ejecting into the Great Lakes region and one along the
Gulf Stream. Eventually these systems will merge to our north with
an associated cold front that will cross early Tuesday.
Back to Sunday...the surface low will lift northward off the coast of NC
later Sunday as isentropic lift yields shower activity across much
of the area. Ahead of this however...high pressure will be nosing
down from the north (cad event for western nc) allowing northerly
winds to continue through much of Sunday. This will make for a cool
and damp day across eastern NC. Eventually as the surface low offshore
moves northward...southerly flow will erode the cad late Sunday. The
cold front associated with this system will be approaching from the
west Monday helping to surge temperatures into the 70s under strong
southerly flow. The front will push offshore Tuesday morning with
another round of precipitation and temperatures dropping through the
afternoon. Cold high pressure will build into the region behind the
front. Expect high pressure to be in control through the remainder
of the work week. There is a bit of a deviation in model guidance as
the GFS is now illustrating a more trough-like pattern across the
southern states. Like wpc...will dismiss this solution for now as
the the ensemble members suppresses such activity.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through 18z Friday/...
as of 1230 PM Thursday...warm sector VFR conditions will persist
through this evening. Kpgv and kiso will see some scu ceilings and possibly
a few light rain showers but not enough threat to include in tafs.
Increasing S-SW winds expected to keep lower levels better mixed
tonight and keep visibilities above IFR...but IFR stratus is expected late
tonight into early Friday. Conditions improving to VFR again by
middle-morning with some stronger SW winds likely mainly beyond taf
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...a front will approach the area to start the
long term taf period. Clouds and southerly flow will increase in
response. The front will move through the area Saturday morning with
precipitation just behind the main boundary. Winds will shift to the
north by mid-day. It will be a fairly wet pattern over the weekend
with showers continuing into Sunday as high pressure becomes damned
again the Appalachians and a surface low offshore moves northward Sunday
afternoon. This will likely produce both visibilities and ceilings below VFR
criteria. Showers will diminish for a brief period ahead of the
next cold front which will increase southerly flow across the area
through Monday night. The front will cross early Tuesday morning
bringing more precipitation. Strong northerly winds will develop
behind the front with high pressure building into the area through
the remainder of the work week.
short term /through Friday/...
as of 300 PM thurday...tightening pressure gradient with approaching cold
front and low pressure areas moving along it will result in increasing
S-SW winds to 15-20 kts late tonight and Friday. Ww3 and nwps in
good agreement on seas building to 4-5 feet.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
as of 300 PM Thursday...an active long term is in store for the
waters as a series of disturbances cross the area through the
weekend and first half of the work week. A cold front will cross
the region early Saturday with strong southerly flow developing
Friday afternoon. This will help build seas to 4 to 6ft. The front
will cross early Saturday with precipitation following quickly
after. Northerly flow will develop as high pressure noses down
across central NC. This will produce a surge in northeasterly
flow...especially across the northern waters. In past it has been
noted that models tend to underestimate seas building under such
flow regime...but for now will cap seas building to 7ft in
response. Sunday will be a cold...windy...and damp day as a surface low
offshore moves north Sunday afternoon. Seas will build ahead and
just behind the next cold front prognosticated to move through Tuesday
morning. In looking at wavewatch...feel it is overestimating seas
assuming a very strong gradient still lingering Tuesday. So will
tack these numbers back a bit with seas building to 7ft maximum which
may still be a bit too high. Winds will becoming northerly Tuesday
afternoon through the rest of the period as high pressure takes
control. Seas will subside thereafter.
below is a summary of the climatological record high temperatures
for Thursday...December 5th...and Friday...December 6th:
Record high for Dec 5:
New Bern 77 (1998)
Greenville 79 (1982)
Kinston 82 (1978)
Newport 79 (1998)
Bayboro 79 (1998)
Morehead City 74 (1998)
Williamston 77 (1978)
Cape Hatteras 77 (1982)
Ocracoke 74 (1975)
Manteo 73 (1978)
Record high for Dec 6:
New Bern 81 (1998)
Greenville 80 (1998)
Kinston 81 (1982)
Newport 77 (1998)
Bayboro 82 (1998)
Morehead City 74 (2011)
Williamston 76 (1998)
Cape Hatteras 77 (1982)
Ocracoke 73 (1975)
Manteo 78 (1998)