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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 am EDT Wednesday may 27 2015

high pressure will continue to extend over the area from offshore
through the weekend. A weak boundary will approach the region
early next week.


Near term /today/...
as of 932 am Wednesday...high pressure to the northeast will continue to
extend into eastern North Carolina through the day. Upper level
ridge will be suppressed as energy swings through trough over the
plains states. This will help initiate widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms later this morning through the afternoon.

Previous of 650 am Wednesday...high pressure continues to extend
into the region from offshore today...while strong upper ridge
gradually weakens. Latest radar imagery shows light rain showers
dissipating over the southern County Warning Area. Increased probability of precipitation slightly from
previous forecast based on latest 00z runs and hrrr/NSSL WRF...with
models showing scattered seabreeze showers developing late this morning
and early afternoon across the south-southwest zones then increasing in coverage
along and west of Highway 17 this afternoon and early evening. Will cap at
low chance. The NAM remains more unstable than the GFS...but given
little shear and forcing expect just typical diurnal popcorn type
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Low level thickness values and 850mb temperatures
support highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 3 am Wednesday...any lingering showers/thunderstorms should taper off
quickly with loss of heating this evening. Mild overnight with
lows in the middle/upper 60s.


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 240 am Wednesday...the upper ridge just off the coast will weaken
a bit through late week but remain strong enough to suppress most
convective potential along the beaches into the weekend. Will keep
slight to low chance probability of precipitation through the weekend...mainly inland
coinciding with afternoon/early evening diurnal cycles/sea breeze
interactions. For now Thursday looks to have best coverage of
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with axis of deeper moisture close by...with Friday the
driest as ridge builds west again.

Late in period GFS has become much faster pushing front through Sun
night and Monday with wetter cooler conditions Monday into Tuesday. Given
uncertainty will not change previous forecast much with front remaining
mainly north of region until Tuesday...with somewhat better chances of rain showers and
thunderstorms and rain early next week.

Low level thicknesses do not change much through the period with highs
mainly 85 to 90 inland and upper 70s/low 80s beaches. Lows will continue
in the 60s inland with around 70 CST. Did lower temperatures a bit Tuesday
with poss of front sagging into region.


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 650 am Wednesday...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period...though there will be the potential for periods of MVFR
ceilings through late morning based on forecast soundings/narre
and observation to the west. Scattered seabreeze showers/thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and early evening. Southerly winds continue with gusts around
15kt this afternoon.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 240 am Wednesday...VFR conditions should dominate through the
period. There will be typical threat of patchy late night fog as
low levels gradually moisten but coverage and duration shld be quite
limited. Also could be some isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain during afternoon/early
evening inland most days.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 934 am Wednesday...southerly flow over the North Carolina coastal
waters this morning. Speeds ranging from 10 knots or less in the
southern waters and 10 to 15 knots in the northern waters with 2 to
4 foot seas. High pressure over the area will keep southerly flow 5
to 15 knots with 2 to 4 foot seas today through tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 240 am Wednesday...high pressure will remain offshore through the
forecast period bringing mainly light S to southeast flow along the coast
through Thursday. Secondary high pressure building in from the north Thursday night
into Friday with surface flow backing to east/NE but remaining light. Winds
veer to southeast/south again during the weekend as the the high slides
further east and trough develops to the west. Seas will continue at 2 to 4
feet...but wavewatch continues to show southeast swell increasing a bit with
some 5 foot seas poss far outer central waters later Friday night into Sat


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...cgg
short term...cqd
long term...rf

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