Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
941 PM EDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
high pressure builds will move off the coast late tonight and
early Friday. A cold front and low pressure area will approach the
area this weekend...slowly moving off the coast by early next
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 940 PM Thursday...lowered init temperatures and overnight lows for
obx as dropping quick with light winds. Otherwise no changes with
high pressure overhead keeping skies mclr.
Previous disc...quiet weather continues tonight as high pressure
crests over the area. Clear skies and light winds to continue and
could see patchy fog develop late. Guidance is in excellent
agreement with lows in the middle to upper 50s inland and lower 60s
Short term /Friday night through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 300 PM Thursday...SW flow finally develops over the area
after a prolonged period of northerly and easterly flow. High
pressure will move offshore allowing a cold front to approach from
the west late. Expect sunshine to give way to increasing clouds
late in the day. The SW flow will lead to warm highs in the lower
80s inland (upper 70s beaches) and would not be surprised to see a
few middle 80s in the normally warmer locations.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 3 PM Thursday...models in good agreement in the long term. Upper
trough will drive a cold front southeast through the forecast area
Friday night and off the coast Saturday morning. Continued likely
probability of precipitation and also put in slight chance thunder late Friday night and
Saturday morning as models show some modest instability. The trough
will form a cutoff low along the southeast coast Sunday as an area
of low pressure forms on the front offshore. Tapered off probability of precipitation from
the northwest Saturday night and maintain chance probability of precipitation on Sunday
south of a line from Oregon Inlet to New Bern to Jacksonville.
System off the coast will move away slowly Monday and kept slight
chance South Coast and Outer Banks. Fast-moving cold front sweeps
through on Tuesday. Front will move through quickly so will limit
probability of precipitation to just slight chance for now.
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through Friday/...
as of 6 PM Thursday...high confidence in VFR into the evening
with high pressure over the region. Expect some fog to develop again
later tonight as high clouds look to be limited and with good
radiational cooling will see temperatures reach dewpoints. Core of high may
move east enough for light south-southwest winds deep inland but for now speeds
look to be very light. Will show some IFR and pgv/ewn late per
persistence with MVFR iso/oaj. Any fog that develops will burnoff
quickly Friday morning with VFR rest of the day as high clouds increase
later in advance of next front.
Long term /Friday night through
Tuesday/... as of 3 PM Thursday...rain chances will increase late
Friday night as a cold front approaches. Numerous showers after
midnight Friday night and through the day Saturday with sub-VFR
cigs/vsbys. Isolated thunder possible late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Rain will end from the northwest Sunday and
Sunday night as system moves off the coast. Isolated showers
possible Tuesday. Surface winds will veer quickly Friday night
from southwest to north as the front passes through. North winds
around 10 knots Saturday. Northeast around 10 knots Sunday.
Northwest around 5 knots Monday. West southwest around 10 knots
short term /through Friday/...
as of 940 PM Thursday...no changes with high pressure overhead
producing light winds overnight.
Previous disc...light winds 10 kts or less will continue over the
marine area tonight and most of Friday as high pressure moves
across the waters. The northerly flow will shift to east/southeast late
today as the high approaches the coast, then become light and
variable overnight as the high crests over the waters early Friday
morning. As a cold front approaches from the west late winds will
become SW Friday and will increase to 10 to 15 knots north of Oregon
Inlet late in the day.
Seas will subside from 3 to 5 feet this evening to 2-4 feet overnight
and 2 to 3 feet Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 3 PM Thursday...southwest flow across the marine zones Friday
night ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will veer to
north late Friday night over the northern waters north of Oregon
Inlet...with the switch to north reaching the southern waters
south of Cape Lookout not until Saturday afternoon. An area of low
pressure will form on the front off the coast on Sunday and brush
past the coast Sunday night into Monday. North to northeast flow
will be the rule Saturday night into Monday morning. Small craft
seas forecast north of Ocracoke late Saturday night through Sunday
night. Conditions will improve Monday as the front moves away and
a westerly offshore flow sets up.
as of 940 PM Thursday...NE Cape Fear River is dropping and
expected to go below flood stage late tonight or early Friday.