Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700 PM EDT Monday Sep 1 2014
Bermuda high pressure will extend over the area through Tuesday. A
weak cold front will approach the area from the north
Wednesday...then stall and dissipate Thursday. High pressure
ridges into the region from offshore Friday and Saturday...then
another cold front will drop into the area Sunday into Monday.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 7 PM Monday...no sig changes needed to ongoing forecast for
early evening update. Radar continues to show little to no
activity over the County Warning Area...though will continue to keep mention of
isolated probability of precipitation overnight with best chances along the coast after
midnight. Overnight...an approaching weak short wave will be
moving across the area and may result in isolated
shower/thunderstorm chances mainly east of Highway 17. Otherwise...will
continue with warm and muggy conditions as high pressure remains
over the area...bring light moist SW flow. Overnight lows in the
lower to upper 70s.
Short term /Tuesday/...
as of 320 PM Monday...hot and humid conditions will continue as
Bermuda high dominates the area with a southerly flow while the
upper level ridge flattens. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will
mainly develop along the seabreeze and thermal trough durng the
afternoon/evening. Highs will in the low 90s inland and middle/upper
80s along the coast.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 245 PM Monday...models are in good agreement with the overall
pattern and features into Saturday. The upper ridge flattens Tuesday
into Wednesday as a stronger shortwave moves across the Ohio River valley
and through New England. No significant changes to previous forecast
for Wednesday into Thursday with probability of precipitation around 30 percent as a backdoor cold
front drops into and stalls across the area. Upper level dynamics
remain rather weak with the core of the upper jet remaining well
north of the region but plenty of moisture will be in place with
moderate to strong instability to allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms...especially in vicinity of the front where better surface
convergence will reside. Shear and middle level lapse rates remain
rather weak so severe chances will remain low but could see locally
heavy precipitation with weak steering flow and high precipitable waters .
The frontal boundary dissipates late Thursday into Friday with high pressure
strengthening offshore and upper ridging building aloft and expect
mainly isolated diurnally driven convection Friday into Sat.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) show some differences Sunday into Monday. The GFS
has a more amplified upper trough across the east and drives a back
door cold front through the area on Sunday with strong northerly
flow on Monday. The European model (ecmwf) is not as strong with the upper trough and
hangs the front up just barely making it into our area. For the
forecast hedged towards wpc guidance which slowly brings the front
into the area and just through on Monday. With the slow moving front
and a series of shortwaves providing a focus for precipitation Sunday
into Monday could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts across the
Low level thicknesses support highs in the low 90s through much of
the extended. Warmest day looks to be Wednesday when low level thicknesses
are greatest. Slight cooling Thursday with greater cloud
cover...especially northern area where NE/Ely flow expected north of
the backdoor cold front...however winds expected to be rather light.
Will see more of a cool down Sunday into Monday with highs in the
middle to upper 80s.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 7 PM Monday...VFR conditions currently across the area with
light southwesterly flow. Main challenge again overnight will be the
potential for patchy fog and stratus. Will continue to trend with
persistence given the same airmass...with oaj having the best
chance for sub-VFR overnight. Any fog/stratus that develops should
burn off quickly after sunrise with pred VFR conditions returning.
Isolated convection possible again Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 245 PM Monday...generally VFR conditions expected through the
long term although patchy light fog possible during the early
morning hours. Isolate-scattered convection possible each day with best
chances Wednesday through Thursday as a backdoor front drops into the region.
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 7 PM Monday...Bermuda high over the western Atlantic will
continue to dominate the coastal waters tonight into Tuesday. SW
winds 10 to 15 knots will continue overnight...with latest observation
showing SW winds around 15 knots with gusts to 20kt north of
Ocracoke. Seas will be building 2 to 4 feet...mainly over the
northern/central waters. SW winds will increase Tuesday afternoon to
15 to 20 knots with seas of 2 to 4 feet.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 245 PM Monday...the Bermuda high offshore will bring S/SW winds
across the waters into Wednesday. Winds generally around 5-15 knots Tuesday
night and early morning Wednesday. A backdoor front drops into the region
Wednesday through Thursday bringing light winds...generally 10 knots across the
southern waters and less across the north. Winds north of the front
expected to be east to NE while remaining S/SW to the south. The front
is forecast to dissipate by Friday with southerly flow around 5-10 returning
to all waters...increasing to 10 to 15 knots by late Saturday ahead of
an approaching front. Models in good agreement keeping seas around
3-4 feet...locally to 5 feet near Diamond Shoals...into early Wednesday but
then subside to around 2 feet Thursday and Friday with light winds across
the waters...increasing to 2 to 3 feet Saturday.