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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
134 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

a stalled front over eastern North Carolina early this morning
will gradually lift back north of the region today. Offshore high
pressure will dominate over the weekend into early next week. A
cold front will approach from the north middle to late next week.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
surface high pressure centered over southeast new eng has wedged in over inland
areas early this morning under an upper ridge peaking over the
region tonight. Still expecting some patchy fog to develop given
the high surface dew points and light/calm winds but do not anticipate
widespread dense fog conditions given patchy cloud cover and very
light boundary layer mixing.

Will retain very low/slight chance probability of precipitation for coastal areas as a
weak inverted trough offshore drifts toward the coast, but the
chances for any showers reaching the coast before sunrise appear
to be dwindling given the current radar trends.

Lows with upper 60s to lower 70s most spots.


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...the upper ridge will remain over the area
Saturday and should inhibit diurnal convective development. Will
continue slight chance afternoon pop but not expecting much if any
activity. Highs will range from around 90 inland to the lower to
middle 80s.


Long term /Sunday through Saturday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...upper level ridge will continue to persist as surface
high pressure extends over the area from the western
Atlantic...bring warm and moist southerly flow as the Piedmont
trough builds inland. Sunday into next week will be a typical and humid with afternoon convection. Monday through Wednesday
will be a better day with convection as a broad trough will move
from north and flatten the upper level ridge allowing weak
shortwaves to move across the area. Will continue with 30/40 probability of precipitation
each afternoon/evening. By middle to late week...models continue to
bring a weak cold front to the area...but there remains some both GFS/European model (ecmwf) continue to differ with the timing.

High temperatures will be near to above normal through the period as low
level thickness support it. Expect...highs in the middle 80s to low 90s
and lows in the 70s.


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 06z Sunday/...
newest model guidance beginning to back off a bit on the potential
for fog formation early this morning. However still expect mainly
IFR conditions to develop for a combination of low stratus and
patchy fog given the favorable set up with high surface dew points,
clearing skies and light/calm winds. Any fog/stratus that does
form will gradually lift after sunrise with VFR then expected
from middle morning on into this evening. Chances for diurnal
convection appear to be very limited given the strong upper ridge
over the region today.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...VFR conditions expected through most of the
period. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection...increasing the
precipitation chances on Monday through Wednesday with periods of sub-VFR
with heavy rainfall. Fog development may occur late night/early
mornings...especially at sites where precipitation has fallen.


short term /through Saturday/...
as of 1000 PM Friday...front has pushed just to the S and will stall
overnight. Expected east-northeast winds 5 to 10 kts S and 10 to 15 kts central
and north. Seas 2 to 4 feet...highest outer central waters.

Previous disc...the weak front will stall over the southern waters
tonight then drift back to the north Saturday. 10 to 15 knots east to
northeast winds will subside to 10 knots late tonight then become
southeast to south on Saturday as the front lifts north.

2 to 4 feet seas late today will become 2 to 3 feet late tonight and

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...upper level ridge and surface high pressure will
dominate through the period. Winds will S/SW 5 to 15 kts Sunday
through Wednesday. Seas will mostly be 2 to 4 feet.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...btc
short term...jme

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