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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
655 am EDT Wednesday may 6 2015

high pressure over the area this morning will gradually move east
this afternoon and tonight. Low pressure developing near the
Bahamas will move north tonight and Thursday...and linger just
off the southeast coast through the weekend.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 645 am changes with update.

/Previuos discussion/
as of 330 am Wednesday...dry conditions will continue over area
today but with surface and upper ridging gradually weakening as
developing low pressure approaches from S. High cloudiness will
persist through the day but limited opacity will allow for pt
cloudy forecast. Maximum temperatures 79-82 inland with 70s beaches.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...upper low and assctd surface low development
will approach from S tonight...leading to increasing/thickening
cloudiness for eastern NC. Slight chance of showers for southern coastal areas
after midnight. Increased cloud cover and onshore flow will keep
min temperatures from upper 50s to lower 60s.


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...main feature through the period will be a
coastal low pressure system that is currently strengthening near
the Bahamas off the Florida coast.

00z models in much better agreement showing low pressure
strengthening off the southeast coast as it moves north-northwest Thursday...approaching
the Carolinas. Upper ridging continues over the eastern Continental U.S.
Setting up a Rex blocking pattern with little upper level steering
flow...which will allow low to likely slow and stall off the southeast
coast into the early weekend. Increasing rain chances Thursday...with
best chances along the southern coastal areas...then precipitation
expected to become more widespread Friday. Will continue to cap probability of precipitation
at high chance for now...with SC mention of thunderstorms. Models show
the low lingering off the southeast coast Sat and sun...before likely
weakening and moving along the NC coast late sun and Monday...then
finally pushing north-northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Will continue chance probability of precipitation
with SC thunderstorms this weekend into early next week...with best precipitation
chances tough to pin down at this time.

At this time the main impacts from this system will be limited to
periods of heavy rainfall...gusty winds along the coast and rough
surf/higher threat of dangerous rip currents. Though additional
impacts could be felt across eastern NC if track and/or strength

Gradual warm up through the period...with low level thickness
values supporting the warmest temperatures Monday and Tuesday with highs in the
low/middle 80s inland and upper 70s/low 80s along the coast.

Wednesday through low continues to move off the
middle-Atlantic coast a cold front will approach the area...likely
pushing through late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Should start to dry out
behind the boundary with northwesterly flow.


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 12z Thursday/...
as of 645 am Wednesday...high cloudiness from low pressure developing
near Bahamas has spread over area and will persist through taf
period. Some scu ceilings expected to develop late tonight with
onshore flow but shower threat will remain near coast through 12z.
Southeast winds around 10 knots expected today...becoming east-NE 5 knots tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...sub-VFR conditions expected to dominate much
of the period as an area of low pressure approaches from the south
Thursday into the weekend. Precipitation chances increase Thursday...becoming more
widespread Friday and Sat.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 645 am changes with update.

As of 330 am Wednesday...high pressure gradually moving offshore will
produce southeast-S winds 10-15 knots today. Developing low pressure approaching
from S will begin to tighten pressure gradient over area tonight with
winds becoming easterly and increasing to 15-20 knots southern half of
waters late tonight.

Seas 1-3 feet this morning will begin to build over southern waters this
afternoon and all waters tonight. Heights to around 6 feet expected outer
portions of southern and central waters by Thursday morning...and Small Craft Advisory

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...main feature through the period will be a
coastal low pressure system that is currently strengthening near
the Bahamas off the Florida coast. 00z models in better agreement than
previous runs...and forecast confidence has increased slightly.
Low is expected to gradually move north-northwest Thursday...then slow/stall off
the southeast coast into the weekend. Low then expected to weaken and
move along the coast late sun and Monday.

Conditions will gradually deteriorate Thursday...especially south of Oregon
Inlet. Will continue to forecast east/NE winds 10-20kt Thursday...then
east/southeast 10-20kt Friday and Sat...becoming south-southeast sun. Expect tighter
gradient across the southern there will be the
potential for stronger winds 20-30kt...though confidence is low
at this time and will depend on track and strength of low. Small Craft Advisory
will start off the period Thursday and continue into the weekend. Nwps
and wavewatch have seas building to 5 to 9 feet south of Oregon
Inlet and 3 to 5 feet north.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 6 am Thursday to 8 am EDT Saturday
for amz152-154-156-158.


near term...jbm
short term...jbm
long term...cqd

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