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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 PM EST Friday Dec 26 2014

high pressure centered over the area tonight will gradually
shift offshore Saturday. A cold front will move through the area
Monday. High pressure will build in from the west through middle


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 230 PM Friday...surface high pressure and upper ridge continue over
the area tonight...with another quiet night on tap. Good radiational
cooling overnight with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Overnight
lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Could see some very patchy
fog...mainly along areas adjacent to rivers...overnight and early
Sat am.


Short term /Saturday/...
as of 230 PM Friday...high pressure will gradually shift off the
coast Saturday. Light winds become more southerly in the afternoon. Low
level thickness values...850mb temperatures around 10c and mostly sunny
skies support highs a few degree warmer with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Increasing clouds late ahead of approaching frontal


Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 215 Friday...models in good agreement in the upper levels and at
the surface with features affecting eastern North Carolina into
Saturday night. Upper level high pressure south of the area with
southwest upper level flow over the southeast. Surface high pressure
will bring low level southwesterly flow for weekend high
temperatures in the middle 60s and mostly clear skies.

Will see a change in the situation starting Saturday night as upper
trough deepens over the southwest and frontal system develops over
the plains states. Models differ on the timing and strength of the
front as it approaches eastern North Carolina Sunday and moves
through Sunday night or Monday with European model (ecmwf) being the strongest and
slowest. As per pmdhmd European model (ecmwf) may be a bit too strong. GFS mean
faster in bringing precipitation to the region with sref and European model (ecmwf)
being more conservative in timing. All models hold off on the
heaviest precipitation until with the frontal passage sometime Monday.

High pressure will build in west of the area Tuesday. Strong low
pressure well to the north. High pressure will drift slowly toward
the east through the middle and last half of the week. Northerly
flow will bring afternoon high temperatures into the upper 40s to
lower 50s.


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 1230 PM Friday...VFR conditions as there is high pressure
dominating the region. Clear skies and light and variable winds
today. Tonight...mostly clear with winds decoupling...medium
confidence of patchy fog developing at pgv and ewn...based on trends
and cross over temperature indicating fog development. If fog
develops...expect fog to dissipate quickly after sunrise.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 215 Friday...VFR conditions will start the extended period on
Saturday night. A front will approach the area Sunday with a slight
chance of showers. The front will cross the area tafs early Monday.
Sub VFR conditions will be possible early Monday into Tuesday as
rain develops associated with the front.


short term /through Saturday/...
as of 230 PM Friday...latest observation show winds SW/north winds 5-10kt and
seas 2-3ft. High pressure over the waters tonight will gradually
shift offshore through the day Saturday. Light winds less than
10kt continue across the waters tonight and Saturday...becoming
more southerly by Sat afternoon. Wavewatch and local nwps showing
increasing long period swell...about 2ft every 16-17 seconds...moving
into the waters overnight from very distant low to the NE. Think
the main impact from this will be increasing seas of 1-2ft on the
outer waters Saturday when swell peaks...peaking up to 4ft across
the central waters.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 215 PM Friday...southwesterly flow over the North Carolina
coastal waters Saturday night with surface high pressure to the east
of the waters. High pressure will be shunted eastward through the
remainder of the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west.
Gradient will tighten a bit ahead of the front...but expect
conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Front will
cross the waters Monday morning with wind becoming north
northeasterly behind it. Gradient will tighten behind the front
picking speeds up to 15 to 20 knots into Wednesday. Will see the
gradient relax on Wednesday as high pressure builds to the west of
the area.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...cqd
short term...cqd
long term...cgg

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