Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY 
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE COULD MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES OTHERWISE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A
LITTLE BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEWPOINT FRONT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH 
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE 
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO 
FORCING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE 
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO CLIMB 
INTO THE UPPER 70S. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST ON 
WEDNESDAY AS AS A SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. FRONTAL 
PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME 
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WET THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS 
SECTION SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO LAST HALF OF WEEK WILL 
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON FRONT BY THE END 
OF THE WEEK SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING.
THUS NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO
20 KT AT TIMES. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/
AS OF 138 PM SAT...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
HAVE A FRONT APPROACH THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUN/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THIS
EVENING IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST NWPS/SWAN LOCAL WAVE MODEL...2 TO 3 FT SEAS
THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 217 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START THE 
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA 
COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE 
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS 
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
WATERS MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME 
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT. GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON 
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL 
CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE 
FRONT BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS 
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations