Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1202 PM EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure to the northeast will continue to extend down the
eastern Seaboard through the end of the week. Low pressure will
develop in the Gulf of Mexico Friday and move slowly northeast along
a stationary front over the offshore waters through Saturday. The
low will slowly drift further offshore Sunday and Monday as high
pressure extends south into the region. A cold front will move
southeast through the area Tuesday night.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 12 PM Thursday...no changes to the forecast.

High pressure center located over New
England will continue to ridge down the East Coast. Models have a
good agreement with low level moisture to increase this
morning...resulting in partly cloudy skies with mostly cloudy over
the obx. With thickness increasing today...temperatures will be warmer
than yesterday. Expect highs in the low/middle 60s inland and
middle/upper 50s along coastal areas.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 345 am Thursday...high pressure will continue to influence over
weather tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will not
be as cold as last night. Expect temperatures to be in the 40s inland and
upper 40s to low 50s along the obx.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 615 am Thursday...strong high pressure will continue to extend SW
into the region Friday. Approaching upper trf will lead to low pressure
developing over the NE Gulf of mex late but think bulk of moisture
ahead of this system will hold off through the day. The upper trf will
cutoff Friday night into Sat with surface low pressure moving slowly east-northeast to our
south. Continue to lean toward the European model (ecmwf) as NAM looks like a dry outlier
and GFS looks too fast and poss wet. 00z European model (ecmwf) is signif wetter than
previous runs and now have likely probability of precipitation S to chance north later Friday night through
Sat as moisture spreads NE into the region. As the low drifts
further east Sat night into sun rain shld gradient end from west to east.
Weakening high pressure will build east over the region through Monday with dry
weather. Next cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday and cross Tuesday
night. Moisture looks limited and not expecting much quantitative precipitation forecast from this
frontal passage...lowered probability of precipitation to slight chance. High pressure will gradient build in from
the northwest Wednesday with dry weather expected.

Highs Friday and Sat will be in the 60s with plenty of clouds and NE
flow. NE winds could be rather gusty along the CST espcly later Sat
as gradient is pinched between low to the S and high to the north. Shld
see more sun on Sunday as stacked low drifts east with some lower 70s
inland. Heights rise in wake of upper low Monday and highs shld climb into
the low to middle 70s inland to 60s CST. Tuesday and Wednesday will be at or above normal
with highs 75 to 80 inland.

&&

Aviation /16z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /tonight & Thursday/
as of 715 am Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail across all taf
sites. Winds will continue from the NE and increase to 15 kts
gusting up to 20 kts after 12z. Sounding models are indicating an
increase of low-level moisture...resulting an increase of clouds
to start will start to increase from east to west approx 14z and
slowly spreading to the inland taf sites (pgv and iso) approx by
00z. Have low confidence with the timing of the clouds as models
have a widespread. Also...models are indicating ceiling heights
reducing to IFR...but at this time kept conditions scattered.



Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...expect generally VFR Friday with any ceilings mainly
above 3000 feet. As rain spreads NE into the area Friday night into Sat
expect reduced flight categories espcly southern tier where best covering of
rain expected. As low pressure drifts further offshore to the S Sunday
and Monday expect mainly VFR...however could still be some lingering
occasional MVFR ceilings near CST with continue NE flow.

&&

Marine...
short term /today and tonight/
as of 12 PM Thursday...north to NE winds continue throughout the marine
zones at 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. No changes for the
early afternoon package.

Previous disc...latest buoy observation continues to indicate north/NE 15-20
gusting up to 27 knots with seas of 6 to 9 north of Hatteras and 3
to 6 south. With the persistent NE 20-25 knot wind flow continuing
today...seas will continue to be elevated around 7 to 8 feet for the
northern/central waters increasing to 8 to 9 feet this evening.
Southern waters 4 to 6 feet increasing 7 feet in the outer water. Small Craft Advisory
will continue for all waters except Neuse Pamlico...and Pungo
rivers. Pressure gradient will remain in place in between high
pressure centered in New England and the stationary front over the
offshore waters. Seas will remain elevated into this weekend in
the Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke waters. Elsewhere advisories will
expire as seas subside.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...strong high pressure extending into the Carolinas Friday
will maintain north-northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts near the CST. As low pressure
slides east-northeast to the S Sat into sun expect the gusty north-northeast winds to continue
poss gusting 25 to 30 kts outer waters. The NE winds will slowly
diminish Monday as the low moves further offshore and high pressure weakens
as it builds toward CST. The persistent NE flow will keep seas
elevated through the period with Small Craft Advisory over the coastal waters continue through
Monday. Seas will peak at 8 to 10 feet over the outer waters late Sat
through Sunday. Then slowly subside to 4 to 6 feet later Monday.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz130-
131.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for amz150-152-154-
156-158.

&&

$$

Synopsis...bm
near term...hsa/bm
short term...bm
long term...rf
aviation...rf/bm
marine...hsa/bm/rf