Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1246 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
weak high pressure will build across eastern North Carolina this
morning as the coastal storm moves northeast. A cold front will
move through from the west this evening...followed by a secondary
front on Tuesday. Arctic high pressure will build in from the
northwest Tuesday night through early Friday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1245 PM Monday...no changes to previous forecast
thinking. Eastern NC is in between systems with clouds from the
next strong middle level shortwave/surface cold front about to
advance into the coastal plain after 19z. Still think
precipitation holds off until after 00z but will continue chance
probability of precipitation after 21z as the operational global models are still a little
faster than the high res models. Will not tinker with forecast
highs as cold advection is expected to be tempered by downslope
flow should be expecting highs in land in the lower to middle 50s
with 45 to 50 expected along the Outer Banks.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Monday...fast short WV will push a cold front across
area overnight with scattered showers mainly this evening. Middle level
thicknesses support possible mixed precipitation but low levels and surface temperatures
appear too warm and will keep wording as rain showers. Some
clearing late with middle temperatures middle 30s inland to around 40 obx.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 4 am Monday...amplified upper pattern to continue through the
period with a western ridge/eastern trough leading to well below
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the
upcoming week. Several strong shortwaves will rotate around the
upper trough during the next several days and try to enhance the
precipitation potential but deep westerly flow over much of the
eastern US will keep the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Cut off
as sources for moisture inflow while moisture associated with the
associated weak surface systems themselves mostly gets wrung out
on the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.
Tuesday...will continue to advertise 20 probability of precipitation for rain/snow showers
across the northern zones as moisture associated with a couple of
middle level shortwaves passes through our area. Although
temperatures will be mostly above freezing when conditions are
most favorable for precipitation development it will be cold
enough for any light precipitation that develops to be mix of rain
and snow. No accums expected at this time. Continuing cold air advection Tuesday night
will lead to chilly readings in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Wednesday...broad cyclonic flow continues with axis of upper
trough pivoting through the eastern Continental U.S. With dry but chilly
weather. Gusty westerly winds combined with highs temperatures
struggling into the 40s will make it feel even colder.
Temperatures will be cold Wednesday night as thicknesses quite low
and continuing westerly breeze makes the overnight lows well down
into the 20s feel more like the teens.
Thursday...shortwave trough begins to lift out/deamplify but mean
heights/850mb temperatures still well below average as long wave trough
dominates the eastern half of the Continental U.S.. it will be a cold day on
Thursday with highs only in the middle/upper 30s with plentiful
sunshine. Another cold night Thursday night with lows in the low 20s
though winds much lighter.
Friday...disagreement arises on potential weather maker for
Friday as yet another short wave/low pressure system pivots around
base of deep eastern trough. Latest 08/00z European model (ecmwf) quite a bit
stronger with forcing and moisture. This solution opening briefly
opening up the gom and tapping into deeper moisture. This solution is
also warmer...and keeps bulk of precipitation liquid. Operational GFS on
the other hand is less amplified though brings threat of a light
wintry mix for east NC. Taking a look at the new GFS parallel...a
more organized low passing through or just south of east NC would
bring a better threat for wintry weather. For now have advertised
just 20 probability of precipitation with a rain/snow mix though this system will bear
watching over the coming days.
Saturday and Sunday...potential growing for a significant Arctic
outbreak as both GFS/European model (ecmwf) and most of their respective ens
members indicating sharply falling height anomalies. The European model (ecmwf)
advertising 850mb temperatures as low as -25 degrees c and thicknesses
below 500m! This type of air mass would most certainly break
record low temperatures should it verify. Ec MOS values as cold as
the low 20s for high temperatures and lows generally in the low teens.
The GFS is a bit warmer with maximum t's in the low 30s and lows in
the middle/upper teens. Will play conservatively for now and forecast
'milder' temperatures more in line with the GFS/wpc.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 1245 PM Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through most of the taf period. Clear skies and light winds early
this afternoon will give way to increasing clouds/wind and chances
for precipitation as a cold front advances through the region this
evening. A brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible in
scattered showers 1z-6z then flow shifts to the west and
drier/colder air sweeps into the region behind the cold front.
Looks like there will to much dry low level westerly flow to
overcome Tuesday as the next middle level shortwave affects the area
so expecting dry weather with any cloud bases to be at VFR
levels. Winds will gust at times to 20 knots especially on Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 4 am Monday...dry weather with prevailing VFR conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday. It is also forecast to be
breezy through the period with westerly flow 10 to 20 knots. A
small chance for rain or snow on Friday with a quick moving system
moving through from the west. It is questionable at this time how
much moisture and cold air will be available for rain or snow.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1245 PM Monday...continue advisories for the coastal
waters. A new advisory may be needed for the Pamlico Sound for
Winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon then
increase again this evening ahead of a cold front especially over
the southern waters. Late tonight and especially Tuesday cold
advection will increase westerly winds behind the cold front with
at least advisory level winds expected all waters except for the
Albemarle Sound it will be very close. Could see a period of gale
force winds southern/central waters in gusts Tuesday with good
cold advection. Very dangerous seas in excess of 10 feet will
continue at least into this evening.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... as of 4 am Monday...very poor
boating conditions are expected to continue through most of the
period with northwest to west flow 15 to 25 knots predominating and
maintaining elevated seas of 6 feet or higher. Thus at least
advisory level headlines are expected to be continued for wind
and/or seas for all the coastal waters through the period with
only marginally better conditions on the sounds and adjacent
rivers. A break in the high winds and seas may occur on Thursday
though yet another strong cold front will move through on Friday
with winds and seas once again increasing.
as of 955 am Monday...gages at Cedar Island...Ocracoke and at
Coast Guard Hatteras are showing water levels are coming down
easing the Soundside flooding threat but ocean overwash will
still be a concern along the Outer Banks into tonight so current
warnings will be downgraded to an advisory later today to handle
the overwash threat at high tide.
Please see the coastal Flood Warning/advisory for more details.
NC...coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ncz103-
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ncz095.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for amz150-152-154-