Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1227 am EDT sun Aug 30 2015
weak low pressure off the coast will drift slowly northeast tonight
as high pressure builds into the area from the north. The high
will continue over the region through middle week. Weak low pressure
will move south of the area late in the week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1225 am Sunday...widespread middle/high clouds continue over
the region with line of showers well offshore. No major changes to
the current forecast with overnight lows Lower/Middle 60s inland to
low/middle 70s immediate coast.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 am Monday/...
as of 230 PM Saturday...high pressure and associated area of min precipitation
water will gradient slide off the CST. Clouds will thicken as moisture
increases but appears bulk of precipitation will hold off until evening so
will keep forecast dry. With thickening clouds highs will once again
be in the 80s area wide.
Long term /Monday through Sunday/...
as of 230 PM Sat...surface high pressure to the north-northwest will remain in
control through much of the period...with a weak area of low
pressure developing off the southeast coast late week into next weekend.
Sunday night and Monday...lower than average confidence continues
with continued model differences. Moisture from the remnants of
Erika may interact with a shortwave moving NE through the southeast
states. European model (ecmwf) continues to trend much wetter than the GFS. Will
continue to cap probability of precipitation around 40 percent for now...though if European model (ecmwf)
verifies could see periods of heavy rain into Monday.
Monday night through late week...surface high pressure will remain in
control through the week with very weak flow aloft. Still looks
like scattered shower/thunderstorms will be possible through the week...mainly
diurnally driven with little to no upper support. Models show a
weak low developing off the southeast coast Friday and Sat...with the bulk
of the moisture remaining south of the area. Temperatures through the
period near climatology...with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 and
overnight lows in the upper 60s/middle 70s.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through 06z Monday/...
as of 1225 am Sunday...high confidence for VFR conditions continue
overnight with widesprad high cloudiness...despite calm to nearly
calm winds. Broken to overcast high clouds continue on Sunday with
VFR conditions and light winds.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... as of 230 PM
Sat...periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible Sun night and
Monday with increasing chance of showers. Pred VFR conditions to
return Monday night through late week with mainly scattered diurnal
convection. Brief patchy fog/stratus possible each night/morning
with light winds and moist bl.
short term /through Sunday/...
as of 1225 am Sunday...winds a bit lighter tonight than the
previous couple of night with north/NE 10 knots or less expect gusting
to around 15 knots at Diamond buoy. Seas continue in the 3 to 5
foot range with a decent 10-11 second swell. High pressure will
continue over the area sun...poss sliding off the CST late.
Expect light NE flow through middle day becoming variable to southeast late.
Seas will subside to 2 to 4 feet Sunday.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
as of 230 PM Sat...overall nice and benign boating conditions
expected across the waters through the period...with high pressure
the main feature. South-southwest flow Sunday night into Monday night...becoming
west early Tuesday then returning to south-southwest Tuesday afternoon/evening. Similar
Wednesday with variable winds early becoming south-southeast in the afternoon.
Speeds less than 15kt through the period with seas 1-3ft.