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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
655 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015

a cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross the
area Monday. High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday and
move offshore Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the
area Wednesday night. Low pressure will develop on the front
offshore of the coast Thursday and move away from the region
Friday. High pressure will re-build over the region next weekend.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 630 PM Sunday...minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and min
temperatures for coastal sections where temperatures have dropped to middle-upper 40s
with light winds. Temperatures will be stable or even drop another degree or 2
next few hours before low level warm air advection developes with tightening pressure
gradient in advance of front. Rest of forecast on track with rain developing

/Previous discussion/
as of 3 PM sun...latest surface analysis shows 1004mb low over western
MO/eastern Illinois with associated cold front extending from the NE US
back into Texas. High pressure will continue to move off the southeast coast
tonight as strong cold front approaches from the west. Precipitation shield
currently well to the W/SW...across the Tennessee Valley and Alabama.
Precipitation chances increase overnight as warm air advection/lift increase across the
area. No sig changes to previous probability of precipitation...will continue to increase to
likely/categorical after midnight. Isolated thunderstorm possible along the
southern coast late...though expect bulk of instability to remain
offshore. Pressure gradient will tighten overnight and south-southwest winds
will increase quickly after midnight...with gusts 30-40 miles per hour late.
Mild temperatures overnight with non-diurnal temperature curve and warm air advection. Lows early
45-50 degrees...warming into the middle/upper 50s Monday morning.


Short term /Monday/...
as of 3 PM sun...surface low will continue to deepen and push through
the middle-Atlantic region Monday...while cold front and shortwave
trough push through enc Monday afternoon. Will continue
categorical probability of precipitation for the first part of the day...then gradually
tapering off from west to east Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm possible
along the coast early Monday but will continue to limit mention to
waters with slightly increased instability. Gusty southwesterly winds
continue ahead of the front...with gusts 30-40mph. At this time
think gusts will remain below Wind Advisory criteria though could
be marginal along the Outer Banks and southern coast. Expect non-
diurnal temperature curve with highs in the middle 50s/low 60s ahead of the
front...then falling with cold air advection Monday afternoon behind the


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 230 PM Sunday...high pressure will build in from the west Monday
night with mclr skies expected over region. Tight gradient will
produce windy conditions all areas in the evening that will continue
through the night along the beaches. Lows will range from around 25
inland to lower 30s obx. Fast moving short wave will cross Tuesday but
with very dry airmass over region not even expecting many clouds
with feature. High pressure will crest over the region by late Tuesday
with highs ranging from upper 30s far NE to low/middle 40s elsewhere.
Temperatures will drop quickly Tuesday evening into the 25 to 30 dgr range
most area then likely level off late as the high moves offshore and
light return flow develops. Wednesday looks mild with SW flow ahead of
next cold front...low level thicknesses support highs in the lower
50s NE to upper 50s SW.

12z runs of GFS and European model (ecmwf) now coming into better agreement middle to
late week. Cold front will cross late Wednesday night and early Thursday with
some moisture lifting NE along the CST...espcly Thursday. Continue previous forecast
of chance probability of precipitation CST to slight chance inland Thursday...low level temperatures stay above
freezing with just rain expected. Drier/colder air will then spread
in Thursday night into Friday as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Have slight chance of light rain imd CST Thursday evening then dry late Thursday
night and Friday. Highs Thursday will range from middle 40s north to around 50
S...coldest air will cross Friday with highs mainly 35 to 40. The
strong high will cross later Friday night into early Sat then drift S
of region into Sunday as backdoor cold front approaches from the north.
Temperatures will moderate over the weekend with highs in 40s Sat then 50s
on Sunday.


Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through 00z Tuesday/...
as of 645 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through evening
hours although ceilings will be lowering. Widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities
developing 06z-09z in advance of cold front...with the potential for
periods of IFR mainly Monday morning. Showers should taper off from
west to east Monday afternoon...with ceilings improving. VFR expected
after 18z Monday.

Gusty southwesterly winds develop late tonight and into Monday with wind
gusts 20-30kt...this could result in crosswind impacts for runway
at ewn. The cold front will move through the terminals Monday
afternoon...with gusty winds becoming W/NW.

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 230 PM Sunday...VFR Monday night through Wednesday as high pressure
builds across and offshore with dry airmass over the region. Gusty
northwest winds expected Monday evening. A cold front will cross the region
late Wednesday night and Thursday and may see sub-VFR conditions mainly
Thursday with scattered rain showers. Drier air will build in Thursday night and Friday with
VFR expected. Gusty north winds likely to develop Thursday and continue into
early Friday.


short term /through Monday/...
as of 630 PM changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
as of 3 PM sun...latest observation show southeast/west winds 5-10kt and seas 2-3ft
across the waters. Locally still around 5ft at buoy 41025 with
waters temperatures around 71 degrees. Conditions will quickly deteriorate
overnight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. South-southwest winds
will increase to 20-30kt across the waters south of Oregon Inlet and
Pamlico Sound and 15-25kt across the northern waters and Albemarle
Sound. Local Swan and wavewatch in good agreement showing seas
building 8-13ft south of Oregon Inlet...and 4-9ft north by 12z. Seas
will peak Monday 9-15ft. Strong winds will continue through the day
ahead of and then behind the front. The front will move through the
waters Monday afternoon...with flow becoming west-northwest.

Current headlines in place...gale warnings for the Pamlico Sound
and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet developing tonight...and
Small Craft Advisory for Albemarle Sound and Neuse/Pamlico rivers developing late
tonight and early Monday morning. Think the colder water temperatures
will limit mixing of south-southwest flow across the northern waters
initially overnight...but expect brief period of gale force winds
behind the boundary there Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Please see coastal flood/tide section below for potential minimal

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 230 PM Sunday...strong Small Craft Advisory to gale force winds Monday evening as
cold air advection and tight gradient produce northwest winds 25 to 35 kts. As cold air advection wanes and
high builds closer later Monday night expect winds to gradient diminish to
20 to 25 kts. Seas will continue at 7 to 10 feet outer waters much of Monday
night. Winds will diminish quickly Tuesday as the high builds quickly to
the CST. Expect speeds to drop at or below 10 kts later Tuesday with seas
dropping below 6 feet through the afternoon. High pressure will shift through
the eastern NC waters Tuesday night and off the coast
Wednesday...winds shifting but remaining 10 knots or less with seas
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet later Tuesday night through Wednesday. A cold front will
cross the waters late Wednesday night and early Thursday with another
surge of cold air building winds and seas to Small Craft Advisory
levels Thursday through Friday. Seas will build to 6 to 8 feet Thursday
afternoon then build further to 8 to 10 feet outer waters Thursday night into
early Friday.


Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 3 PM sun...strong south-southwest winds will develop tonight into Monday
ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will move through
Monday afternoon with strong northwest winds developing behind it Monday
afternoon and Monday night. Minor water level rises will be
possible for Soundside areas adjacent to the Pamlico
Sound...mainly behind the front late Monday. Minor low water will
also be possible Monday afternoon and Monday night over the western
Pamlico Sound and rivers.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 am to 10 PM EST Monday for amz136-
Gale Warning from 4 am to 10 PM EST Monday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Monday to 2 am EST Tuesday for
Gale Warning from 1 am Monday to 1 am EST Tuesday for amz152-
Gale Warning from 3 PM Monday to 1 am EST Tuesday for amz150.


near term...cqd/jbm
short term...cqd
long term...rf
tides/coastal flooding...cqd

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