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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1238 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

a front will remain stalled well to the southeast of the region
today with weak high pressure over the area. The high will
gradually slide of the coast Thursday. A cold front will slowly
approach from the west Friday...move into the area Saturday and
stall into Sunday.


Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1240 am sig changes on update. Will continue to
see some patchy high clouds with lows around 70 inland to middle 70s
coast. Based on persistence from past cpl nights just expecting
light patchy fog toward morning with little impact.


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
as of 3 PM Tuesday...the ridge across the central US will approach
the NE with winds aloft out of the north across the Carolinas.
Impulses rounding the ridge look even less impressive as they
move south along the East Coast. While instability at the surface
looks to be a bit more impressive Wednesday as compared to
today...there is little forcing or boundary
anticipate just diurnal thunderstorms to develop mainly inland.
Highs around 90 inland to middle 80s along the coast.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...mainly dry with minimal rain chances through
Thursday, then a front will move into the area and stall bringing
increased precipitation chances late week and into the weekend.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...a broad upper ridge centered over
Southern Plains will extend east and keep the region mainly dry. Only
a renegade shower or storm possible mainly across the coastal
plain during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures close to climatology
with highs lower 90s inland and middle to upper 80s CST with lows in
the low/middle 70s.

Friday through early next week...precipitation chances will increase as upper ridge
flattens and an upper trf gradient develops over eastern US. A cold front will
approach from the west Friday then stall near the region Sat and sun.
Plenty of Gulf moisture will be drawn north along the southeast CST with
favorable upper level jet dynamics but will maintain chance probability of precipitation Friday
through Monday due to convective nature of precipitation and uncertainty on covering
and timing this far out in time. 12z deterministic GFS continues
to be a bit dry biased and will continue to trend with the wetter
wpc forecasts which has support from the NCEP and ecm ens mean. Temperatures
continue near climatology with around 90 inland Friday. With front in vicinity
over the weekend and early next week temperatures expected to be just
slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and highs in the
middle/upper 80s. Lows remain near climatology in the low/middle 70s.


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wednesday/...
as of 1240 am Wednesday...VFR should again dominate bulk of the
period. Expect patchy light MVFR fog 08-11z with some scattered mainly
high clouds from time to time. Little if any convection expected
today with continue VFR as skies remain mclr to pc and light east-southeast winds.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...period of late night/early morning fog possible
Wednesday night but shld be limited and brief. Otherwise pred VFR
conditions expected Thursday with isolated/widely scattered convection poss
during the afternoon and early evening hours...mainly across the
coastal plain. Precipitation chances increase Friday through the weekend
as cold front approaches from the west and plenty of Gulf moisture
lifts into the area bringing better chances of tempo sub-VFR
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms.


short term /through Wednesday/...
as of 935 PM changes on update. Light east-southeast winds
overnight and seas 2 to 4 feet. Good boating conditions through the
period with east-southeast winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet with some 4
foot sets across the outer central waters.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...good boating conditions expected through the
period, however there will be increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. A weak area of low pressure moving
north along the NC waters will produce S to southeast winds though remain
in the 5-15 knots range Thursday into Friday. High pressure becomes established
offshore with a weak cold front approaching and then stalling
while weakening into the weekend. This will produce mainly SW
winds at or below 15 knots for the waters through the weekend. Seas
will be in the 2 to 4 feet range through the period.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jac/rf
short term...Lep

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