Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015
high pressure will persist north and west of eastern North
Carolina through early next week. Weak low pressure will develop
off the coast Monday night and drift to the northeast Tuesday. A
cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night and move
offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
Thursday. Low pressure will develop to the southeast on Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 3 PM Friday...another very warm and sunny day across east NC with
temperatures currently in the low/middle 70s (60s obx). Ridge surface and aloft
continues to control the weather through tonight. Based forecast on
persistence for the overnight...with clear and calm conditions
leading to a good threat for patchy/areas fog. Best chance to see
the fog will be the northern coastal plain counties once again. S-over
temperatures being exceeded this afternoon suggest fog could be locally
dense at times late tonight. Temperatures will be mild with lows in the
middle/upper 40s inland to middle 50s beaches.
Short term /Saturday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...fog/low stratus may be slow to mix out once
again due to the light boundary layer flow and weak sun. High pressure
continues to be in control with well above normal heights expected.
Another very warm day with 1000-850mb thicknesses around ~1370 and
warmer mav MOS suggestive of highs in the middle 70s many areas (near
70 beaches). Light northwest flow and sunny skies expected.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 230 PM Friday...
Saturday night through Sunday...upper ridge axis continues to slide
offshore Saturday night with the middle level flow becoming zonal
through Sunday. Surface high pressure will continue to weaken gradually move
south of the area as east west oriented frontal zone drops south
through the Middle Atlantic States Sunday. The main band of associated deep
moisture remains north of the area through Sunday so should remain
dry. Mild temperatures will continue Sunday with highs 65 to 70 most
areas...little cooler NE CST/obx.
Sunday night through Tuesday...GFS/ECMWF fairly similar with
overrunning precipitation gradient developing late Sun night and Monday as high
pressure wedges into the area from the north. Both show best chances across north
and have a little higher probability of precipitation these areas. Monday night and Tuesday weak
low pressure develops near CST and this will keep threat of scattered rain showers
over region although models trends suggest could taper off or end
southern tier Tuesday. Highs Monday seasonal with low to middle 60s. Thicknesses
rise a bit Tuesday and temperatures will rise well into the 60s poss near 70
Tuesday night through Thursday...GFS/ECMWF differ a bit on timing
of cold front with GFS a bit faster pushing it offshore early Wednesday.
Will keep chance probability of precipitation going through Wednesday then ending Wednesday night. High pressure
will build in from the northwest Thursday with dry weather and pc to mclr skies.
Highs Wednesday middle/upper 60s then cooling into the upper 50s/near 60 Thursday.
Thursday night and Friday...00z European model (ecmwf) and 12z GFS were very similar with
southern stream energy leading to low pressure developing to southeast later Thursday
night into Friday with good potential for rain. 12z European model (ecmwf) now
further offshore and mainly dry...will keep low chance probability of precipitation in for
Friday with highs in the 50s.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 18z Saturday/...
as of 1 PM Friday...VFR conditions expected through this evening.
The ridge axis becomes centered more north and west of the region
today which will shift winds more northerly, though remaining
light. Overall excellent aviation conditions expected today. Fog
development will be possible again tonight under similar
conditions with boundary layer mixing again being the determining
factor for development. Condensation pressure def indicate better
formation well inland...although some guidance suggest
development near the coast. Thus have more dense fog across the
north and west with a broad range of MVFR visibilities over much of the
area. Given such weak flow through tomorrow morning...feel low
level moisture will take some time to mix out. VFR conditions
expected after that.
Long term /Sat night through Wed/...
as of 230 PM Friday...VFR conditions should continue through the
Sunday with limited moisture. As usual can not rule out
possibility of patchy early morning fog/stratus Sun morning but will
have a few more middle/high clouds around that could limit threat.
High pressure nosing in from the north will lead to some overrunning
precipitation developing later Sun night and continue into Monday. Coastal
trf/low then expected to develop later Monday into Monday night then
lift north Tuesday. This will likely lead to prolonged period of sub VFR
starting Monday and continue into Tuesday as set up looks favorable for
stratus to develop...poss in IFR range. Some scattered rain showers will continue
through Tuesday as well. Cold front will approach from west Tuesday night and
cross Wednesday with continue threat of scattered rain showers and occasional sub VFR.
short term /through Sat/...
as of 3 PM Friday...similar setup across the marine area with
generally light north/NE winds 5-15 knots continuing...lightest across
the sounds...with some gusts around 20 knots across the outer waters.
Seas have built to 6-9 feet today with 11-12 second periodicity.
Expect seas to remain elevated through the short term period.
Winds will remain unchanged from the N/NE.
Long term /Saturday night through Wed/...
as of 230 PM Friday...winds will be rather light Sat night into
Sunday as init high drifts S and weakens. Combo of diminishing
winds and slowly subsiding swells will lead to seas dropping
below Small Craft Advisory levels northern and southern waters by early Sunday. Looks like some 6
feet seas will linger outer central waters so will continue Small Craft Advisory these waters.
Another high pressure extends S into the region Sun night with coastal
trf/low developing offshore Monday. This will lead to mainly NE winds
increasing to 15 to 20 kts later Sun night through Monday with seas
building back to 5 to 7 feet. Monday night and Tuesday tricky with
track/intensity of low pressure off CST in doubt...for now keep winds
in 10 to 20 knots range through this period with direction becoming northwest by Tuesday
morning on back side of low. Seas will continue 4 to 7 feet through Tuesday
morning...highest central and northern waters. Winds diminish later Tuesday into
Tuesday night as low departs with cold front approach from west...seas
will drop below 6 feet all waters Tuesday night. West-southwest winds early Wednesday will
become more northwest late as front crosses...speeds mostly at or below 15 kts
with seas 3 to 5 feet.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Wednesday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Sunday for amz150-156-158.