Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
high pressure will remain offshore as a trough of low pressure
lingers to the west through Thursday. A frontal boundary will sag
into the area Thursday night and Friday, then linger near or just
north of eastern North Carolina through the weekend. High pressure
will build over the area by early next week.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 10 PM Wednesday...no significant changes to this update. A severe
thunderstorm in rahs area this evening has since fallen apart
with the remnants moving slowly eastward. Feel this will likely
erode by the time it reaches our County Warning Area...but can not rule out some
drizzle across the far western counties for a brief period of
time. Otherwise...still expecting fairly dry conditions overnight.
Was tempted to put an isolated chance of showers/thunderstorms
overnight given shortwave activity moving at a faster clip across
NC. But with no forcing other than this...have decided to hold
off at this point. Temperatures falling quickly this evening as winds
start to become calm across portions of the area. We have filtered
cloud cover across much of the area...some of which is smoke from
the Canadian fires. Given such a steady decline...was about to
reduce min temperatures a degree or two more. However...the clouds will
continue to thicken this evening/overnight which should slow the
Previous discussion...only noted a couple of showers developing
on the seabreeze this afternoon. They have since diminished.
Convection occurring to the west associated with middle level
shortwaves will continue to migrate eastward. This can also be
seen via satellite imagery with convective debris on our doorstep.
Anticipate much of this precipitation activity to wane with loss
of heating. Models also indicating the shortwave activity will not
arrive until the morning hours. So expect a quite night overall
with clouds moving through the region. Lows overnight will be
around 70 further inland to upper 70s along the immediate coast.
Short term /Thursday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...short wave energy in the broad trough will
approach tomorrow as a surface frontal boundary sags south to near the
Virginia/NC border by late in the day. Chances for precipitation will be
increasing with surface heating through the day and have maintained
likely probability of precipitation for northern areas during the afternoon with high
chances across southern areas. Instability parameters are
modest...and bulk shear is marginal to support severe
storms...though cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust or
large hail with some of the heavier storms. Heavy rain will also
be a threat as precipitable water increases to greater than 2
inches by late in the day. Highs reaching the upper 80s to lower
90s before increasing clouds hold down temperature rise during the
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...long term portion will remain unsettled with
broad upper trough over the region with numerous vorticity centers
moving through the upper flow making timing and placement of
probability of precipitation difficult. Time sections and forecast soundings show deep
moisture in place. Will continue with scattered to numerous probability of precipitation
each day. Rain chances decrease a little bit early next week as
the front lifts northeast away from the area.
Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through 00z Friday/...
as of 7 PM Wednesday...predominant VFR conditions expected through the
period. Convective debris from upstream storms are migrating
toward eastern NC. Expect scattered low/middle level clouds with broken
cirrus overnight. Dewpoint depressions remain large with light
surface winds and cloud cover that should inhibit fog/low stratus
formation, though cannot completely rule out brief MVFR conditions
a few hours either side of sunrise Thursday morning. Gusty SW
winds will pick up late morning with cumulus development around this
time. Vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity may develop by afternoon with overall coverage
still in question.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...scattered to numerous showers and storms
possible each day at all 4 area terminals with locally lower
cigs/vsbys. Southwest flow 5-15 knots through Saturday...
decreasing to 10 knots or less Sunday and Monday.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 10 PM Wednesday...no sig changes at this update. Seas 2 to 5 feet
with south-southwest wind 10-15kt. The SW winds will again slowly diminish
overnight. Winds will increase again to 15 to 20 knots with some
higher gusts later Thursday afternoon.
Seas have dropped below 5 feet over the outer central waters and
latest wave guidance indicates seas remaining below 6 feet until later
Thursday afternoon. Will drop the current Small Craft Advisory for central waters, and
Post another advisory for central waters beginning Thursday afternoon.
Seas may also build to 6 feet over outer waters south off Cape
Lookout by late Thursday but will hold off on Small Craft Advisory for now given
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...models remain in rather good agreement through
the extended period. Southwest flow will continue across the
marine area with stationary boundary lingering near the Virginia/NC
border. Winds remain below small craft levels for the most part
except for a brief period Thursday evening...and that mainly in
the Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout waters. Seas 3-6 feet south of
Oregon Inlet and 2-4 feet north.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Saturday