Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015
cold high pressure will build in from the northwest through
Saturday then gradually slide offshore Sunday. A cold front will
approach from the west Sunday night and cross the area early Monday.
High pressure will build north of the region Monday night through
Wednesday. Low pressure may move up the southeast coast Thursday
and move away from the region Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 225 PM Friday...clouds over eastern tier will gradient slide
offshore this afternoon and dissipate with mainly clear skies expected
overnight. Northwest winds will remain gusty through sunset all areas and
continue all night for the coast. Over inland areas winds will
diminish but not completely decouple with lows ranging from lower
20s cooler inland spots to upper 20s beaches. Apparent temperatures will
drop into the teens overnight.
Short term /Saturday/...
as of 225 PM Friday...high pressure will build toward the coast
Saturday with much less wind over the area. Atms is very dry and
expect clear skies through middle day and then will likely see some
increasing high clouds late. Low level thicknesses will begin to
increase a bit in the afternoon and when combined with mostly sunny skies
will lead to highs in the 45 to 50 dgr range most areas...with
around 40 for NE CST.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...long term pattern will feature a roller
coaster temperature regime with several low pressure systems passing
through the area.
A surface ridge of high pressure will shift off the southeast
coast Saturday night. Min temperatures Saturday night will represent a
non- diurnal trend as flow backs west and west- southwest with the
surface ridge moving off the coast...allowing moderate warm air
advection aloft and increasing cloud cover to develop. Lows in the
20s prior to midnight before a leveling off and beginning a
warming trend prior to sunrise.
For Sunday...high pressure off the coast and low pressure developing
across the Ohio River valley will lead to increasing southwesterly
flow across eastern NC and increasing thicknesses yielding maximum
temperatures near normal despite the mostly cloudy skies.
Agreement amongst models has improved further for the Sunday
night into Monday low pressure system and cold front. A strong
shortwave will swing through the Central Plains states Sunday
night with surface low development along the eastern Ohio River
valley...with a strengthening low moving through northern Virginia/MD/de
Monday morning. SW winds will strengthen overnight as 850mb SW jet
increase to 60+ knots by early Monday morning. Another non-diurnal temperature curve
with lows in the low 50s realized early in the evening before
rising to the middle/upper 50s prior to sunrise. Increasing rain
chances through the night as frontogenesis and large scale lift
increase through the night. Rainfall amounts will range one to
three tenths of an inch as almost no instability will be present
and the system will be fast moving with main dynamics remaining to
the north of the area. Rain will end by Monday afternoon as
system exits off the coast. Highs in the middle/upper 50s realized early
in the day before another strong surge of cold air moves into the
region with gusty northwest winds developing by the afternoon and temperatures
falling through the 40s. Could be a snow shower or two across the
NE potions of the forecast area early Monday evening before precipitation completely
ends though no impacts.
The upper shortwave will cross eastern NC Monday evening with surge
of gusty northwest winds ushering cold temperatures Monday night. Lows in the low
20s (near 30 obx) will combine with the northwest winds to produce wind
chills in the teens prior to daybreak Tuesday. Low level thicknesses
fall to around 1280-1290 meters Tuesday as high pressure noses
south over the region from the Middle- Atlantic States. Expect highs
in the upper 30s north to middle 40s south on Tuesday. The high
shifts off the middle-Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday
allowing a weak warm air advection trend to develop.
30/12z model suite continues to diverge significantly middle to late
week in handling of synoptic pattern. The deterministic GFS/Gem
continue to develop a low pressure area over the gom Wednesday and move it
northeast up the Carolina coast Wednesday into Thursday. However a glance at
the gfsens mean indicates very large spread with respect to mslp
during this time frame owing to low confidence on this solution. European model (ecmwf)
has no Gulf low and a deeper Arctic trough over the area into Thursday
with low pressure developing a few hundred miles off the NC coast. Given
continued differences amongst models have continued probability of precipitation in the
low chance range middle week. With Arctic air mass lurking just to the
west and north will have to monitor trends for potential wintry
weather...though no mention in grids at this long range and only
enough of a threat to mention it to mom.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Sat/...
as of 1225 PM Friday...high confidence in VFR through period. Current scattered
to broken high based cumulus will slide east and dissipate through late afternoon with
skies becoming clear. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon then
subside after dark but will not completely decouple overnight. Very
dry air-mass will continue to spread in overnight and will see no fog
threat late. Mainly clear Sat with some increase in high clouds through
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...next chance of precipitation arrives Sun night
with sub-VFR conditions Sunday night into Monday associated with
a cold front passage. Winds become gusty from the west and then northwest
Monday afternoon into early Monday evening behind frontal passage. High
pressure builds back over the region Monday night into Wednesday
with a return to VFR.
short term /tonight and Sat/...
as 225 PM Friday...strong high pressure will build in from the northwest
tonight keeping gradient tight along the coast. Winds shld peak
around 6z with speeds 25 to 35 kts. Will continue current headlines
however gales are looking marginal for southern tier and poss Pamlico
Sound. Blended wavewatch and Swan for seas as Swan tends to be
too high with northwest wind events...still shld see 8 to 10 feet far
outer central and northern waters. The high will build toward the coast
Saturday with winds diminishing to less than 15 kts during the
afternoon. Seas will be slow to subside and likely remain near 6 feet far
outer central and northern waters through the day.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...generally poor boating conditions expected in
the long term with several strong frontal systems passing through
the waters. Surface ridge will shift east well south of the waters
Saturday night into Sunday...shifting winds west late Saturday and
eventually southwesterly by Sunday. Southwest winds and building seas
expected Sunday night into Monday ahead of a developing frontal
system...which should cross the eastern NC coastal waters Monday
afternoon. SW winds increase to Small Craft Advisory levels...possibly gales in the
outer central/southern waters Monday afternoon...before switching to
northwest by Monday evening. Gales look probably Monday evening for all the
waters and potentially eastern portions of the sounds as
strengthening low pressure to the north pulls down strong cold air
advection. Winds diminish through Tuesday afternoon though seas
are expected to remain elevated at Small Craft Advisory levels through much of
Tuesday especially northern/central legs.
Tides/coastal flooding...the gusty northwest winds overnight will result
in lower than normal water levels for western Pamlico Sound and adjacent
rivers and above normal water on sound side of obx. At this time
appears water level changes will be on the order of 1 to 2 feet
and will not issue any advisories...but will monitor closely.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EST Saturday for amz131-136-
Gale Warning until 5 am EST Saturday for amz135-150-152-154-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST Saturday for amz130.