Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1044 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
high pressure will remain over the region through the upcoming
weekend. A trough of low pressure will develop across the
Piedmont of North Carolina Wednesday and persist through Friday.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 1035 PM Monday...the upper level shortwave that helped
support widespread convection, mainly in the form of heavy
rainfall, has moved east of eastern NC. A weak surface low
remains east of Cape Fear this evening, moving northeast along the
Cape Fear coast towards southern portions of the mhx County Warning Area. Latest
satellite blended total precipitable waters indicates 1.8-2.0 inches across the
eastern NC area. Continued trend of diminishing probability of precipitation from west to
east tonight, though did not completely drop probability of precipitation below slight
chance for the western zones until after 06z. This forecast
scenario matches well with a blend of latest short term and high
resolution guidance, suggesting the weak surface low will cross
the southern zones this evening with some moisture left over for
the central and northern portions of eastern NC after midnight,
tapering off for eastern/coastal sections around sunrise. Lows
will fall near 70s inland to middle 70s along the obx/coast.
Short term /Tuesday/...
as of 3 PM Monday...area returns to a more Summer-like pattern with
high pressure covering most of the region...with a weak trough of
low pressure just west of the coastal plain. Will maintain slight
chance probability of precipitation for afternoon convection. Partly sunny skies expected
so much warmer highs expected than today. Highs will range from
the upper 80s coastal plain to middle 80s Outer Banks.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 3 PM Monday...weak flow aloft will dominate through the period as
upper ridge is either over or just to the west of region. Forcing for
precipitation will be quite limited and expect mainly typical summertime
pattern with the main mechanism for precipitation being sea breeze
convergence for inland areas each afternoon, and have a general
slight to low chance pop through this period. Small shower chances
will transition to the coastal areas and mainly offshore waters
each night, though most places will be dry through the period.
Temperatures will be quite warm and muggy through the work week with highs
85-90 and lows 70-75, slightly above climatology for early September.
Over the weekend as stronger high pressure builds in from the north expect
better NE flow and temperatures a couple of degrees cooler.
Aviation /23z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through 00z Wednesday/...
as of 730 PM Monday...MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR in
lowered ceilings and visibilities tonight due to a moist boundary layer,
moist soils from afternoon precipitation, and light/decoupled
winds. All guidance suggests a period of IFR/LIFR conditions from
roughly 07z to roughly 13z Tuesday morning. Will continue previous
forecast of lowered ceilings/visibilities after 06z with improving
aviation conditions by 14/15z. Weak afternoon convection is poss
Tuesday but confidence is too low to include reduced aviation
conditions in tafs at this time.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sat/...
as of 3 PM Monday...pred VFR conditions through the period with mainly
isolated convection each day. Will likely have brief patchy
fog/stratus possible each night/morning with light winds and moist
short term /through Tue/...
as of 1035 PM Monday...latest surface and buoy data indicate
southeasterly winds around 10 knots across the waters with seas 2-3
feet north to 3-4 feet south. A weak surface low remains east of Cape
Fear that will move northeast towards Cape Lookout and off
Hatteras overnight. Surface wind directions will shift associated
with this weak feature, though remain 10 knots or less overnight.
High pressure will re-establish itself across the region Tuesday
with a trough of low pressure across inland locations, yielding a
weak wind field across eastern NC. The very loose pressure
gradient will produce generally light and variable winds. Seas
through Tuesday will range 2-4 feet.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sat/...
as of 3 PM Monday...overall benign boating conditions expected
across the waters through Friday...with high pressure the main
feature. Loose gradient will result in winds less than 15 kts. Direction
tricky with models differing a bit from time to time however with
light speeds seas shld be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.
Stronger high pressure will build in from the north Friday night and Sat
with NE flow 10 to 15 kts with seas reaching 4 feet outer waters.