Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
702 PM EDT Friday Aug 1 2014
a stalled front will remain over eastern North Carolina through
the weekend and into early next week. The front will dissipate as
weak high pressure builds into the area by midweek.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 655 PM Friday...Flood Watch remains in effect for entire
County Warning Area through Sunday evening.
Current radar trends shows steady rainfall exiting the central and
northern Outer Banks with more scattered activity over the coastal
plains and currently minimal activity over the southern
coast/coastal plains areas. Main middle-level shortwave is exiting
the region to the north and will likely see a bit of a lull in the
precipitation later this evening into the late night hours with
weak subsidence in the wake of the shortwave. This trend is
depicted by the 3km hrrr and rap models. Current forecasts show
this trend with probability of precipitation dropping off then ramping back up toward
morning...in a pattern not unlike this morning...as additional
middle-level energy approaches. No changes made to low temperature
forecast as most areas should be in the low/middle 70s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
have blanketed likely probability of precipitation over the County Warning Area on Saturday given the
inherent difficulties in timing short waves through the moist south-southwest
flow. Heavy rain and flooding threats will continue in the
moisture rich, tropical airmass atop already saturated ground. 1-3
inch additional rainfall amounts are expected areawide through
Saturday but undoubtable will see localized higher amounts again.
Clouds/precipitation holds high temperatures around 80 but could see temperatures a
little higher if any sunny breaks were to develop in the afternoon.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...little changes made to the long term with this
package as much of the focus on near term flooding and
The upper trough remains to the west through the weekend with a
rich supply of deep Gulf/Caribbean moisture continuing to train
into the southeastern US. The area continues to be in the
favorable right entrance region of jet with precipitable waters remaining above
2 inches...and conditions are expected to remain quite wet as an
inverted trough remains nearly stationary across the area.
Wpc and forecast models indicating an additional 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall possible from Saturday evening through Monday. With much
of eastern NC having received copious amounts of rain last
month...in addition to widespread 1 to 2 inches and several
locations receiving 3 to 5 inches so far today...flooding concerns
will remain a threat. Temperatures will be held down by the abundant
clouds and rain...which will also act to limit destabilization so
no severe weather is expected. Highs generally in the lower
80s...and overnight lows in the 70s.
The upper trough lifts out next week with the subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic building into the region and expect more
typical summertime diurnally driven convection to return by
midweek with temperatures climbing back to seasonable norms.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 18z Saturday/...
as of 655 PM Friday...expect a mixed bag of aviation conditions
with MVFR and occasional IFR through the night as low-level
moisture keeps ceilings and visibilities down with occasional showers at
times...especially late tonight. Slow improvement expected later
Saturday morning as lower cloud layers mix out although should see
precipitation coverage increase again as short wave energy moves
up the coast in the moist south-southwest flow.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...an inverted trough of low pressure remains
across the region through the weekend...with enc in favorable
regime for widespread showers and thunderstorms with periods of
sub-VFR conditions likely through Monday. The trough begins to
weaken gradually through the middle of next week...with shower
and thunderstorm chances gradually diminishing.
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 655 PM Friday...light generally east/southeast winds currently over
the waters and sounds at 10 knots or less with seas at 3 to 4
feet. Frontal boundary will remain stalled just inland of the coast
through Saturday with the pressure gradient maintaining a southeast wind
mainly 5-15 knots through Saturday afternoon. Seas will largely
remain in the 3-5 feet range throughout.
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...a coastal trough will reside across eastern
North Carolina through much of the long term bringing periods of
unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend into early next week. Winds and seas should remain sub
Small Craft Advisory...outside of storms...through the period with winds generally
15 knots or less. Seas will remain the 2 to 4 foot range much of
the period. Could see seas build some Tuesday as swells from tc
Bertha begin to impact the area with nwps and wavewatch currently
showing seas generally in the 4-6 feet range. Current NHC and
model consensus re-curves the cyclone well offshore...greater than
300 miles...so impacts from this system is expected to be
restricted to marine concerns and beach-goers with an increased rip
NC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ncz029-044>047-079>081-