Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
927 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015
a stationary front will linger along the coastal plain this
weekend with low pressure along coastal South Carolina. This
system will move east early next week as high pressure builds in
from the northwest.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 925 am Sunday...increased probability of precipitation to likely southern tier this morning based
on radar showing decent amount of rain showers streaming onshore. Otherwise
no changes with all needed headlines already up.
Previous disc..based on current radar trends...have lowered probability of precipitation
through the morning hours. Plume of deep moisture which has
produced historic flooding in South Carolina is very slowly
starting to pivot north as closed upper low over North Florida
starts to move east. Think rain coverage will slowly increase by
early afternoon and ramp probability of precipitation up to the likely/categorical range
by middle to late afternoon...as the rain becomes steady and heavier
by evening. Flood Watch remains in place over our southern
counties through Monday. With increasing pressure gradient between
surface low moving off the South Carolina coast and high pressure
to the north...think gusty east/NE winds will increase and have
issued a Wind Advisory for the entire County Warning Area through Monday
evening...mainly with impacts in mind...as with a saturated
ground...trees may fall. With an already warm start and some
breaks in the clouds early...high temperatures should reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s in most places.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
as of 430 am Sunday...widespread rain and gusty winds will
continue overnight as upper low emerges into the Atlantic and
surface low takes shape off the Carolina coast. With the best deep
Omega and high precipitable waters near the coast...think this
area will receive the highest rainfall totals overnight with
rainfall tapering to the north. In rain-cooled air...low temperatures
tonight will range from the middle 60s inland to low 70s coast.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 4 am Sunday...additional heavy rain possible Monday and Monday
night...then dry and pleasant weather for middle to late week.
Monday through Monday night...stacked low pressure will lift NE
south of the region through this period. Axis of deep moisture and lift
will push NE and impact the region...espcly the southern tier. Models show
a sharp gradient in rainfall with much lighter amounts across the
northern tier and heavier amounts S...but several 00z models do show axis
of heavy precipitation lifting into NE sections Monday night. Have probability of precipitation
ranging from likely north to categorical S. Have additional rainfall
amounts ranging from 1/2 to 1 inches north to 2 to 4 inches southern CST
this period. Given current saturated ground this rain would lead to
additional flooding potential....espcly areas along and S of a
Kinston to Hatteras line. Gusty NE winds will persist along the CST
with cooler temperatures. Highs will only be in the upper 60s inland to low/middle
70s CST Monday.
Tuesday...most models are a bit slower pushing the upper low to the
east with precipitation not really tapering off until early Tuesday inland and
late in the day for coastal sections...so increase probability of precipitation some. Will
see increasing sun from west to east with highs mainly 70 to 75 with
much lower dewpoints.
Tuesday night through Friday...high pressure builds southeast from
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley bringing in some cooler and drier
air through late week. Should see min temperatures middle/upper 50s inland
to low/middle 60s coast with highs generally in the 70s. Comfortable
dewpoints in the 50s are likely for most of the middle/late week
Saturday...moisture will begin to increase a bit Sat as weak cold
front approaches/moves in from the northwest...have silent 20 pop in for
now with highs again in the 70s.
Aviation /13z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through 12z Monday/...
as of 710 am Sunday...expect MVFR ceilings to prevail through most
of the period. Precipitation should increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon. Gusty northeast winds are
expected...gusting up to 30 knots this afternoon. These winds
should keep the boundary layer mixed and preclude any low visibilities
through the period.
Long term /Monday through Thu/...
as of 4 am Sunday...widespread sub-VFR conditions are likely Monday
and Monday night with light to moderate rain and embedded heavier
showers. Precipitation should end across western sections early Tuesday
and along the coast late in the day. Cooler drier air arrives as
high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes and expect VFR
conditions to return Tuesday and continue through Thursday.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 925 am Sunday...forecast looks good with dangerous boating
conditions continue next few days.
Previous disc...no major changes to the current marine forecast. Seas
are currently 10 to 13 feet with winds to near gale force over the
far northern waters. Gale warnings continue on all waters as tight
gradient between developing low off the Carolina coast and high
pressure to the north will yield east/NE winds of 25 to 35 knots with
gusts in excess of 40 knots starting this afternoon and continuing
through tonight. Combination of wind wave and swell energy from
Hurricane Joaquin will lead to seas up to 16 feet...especially
central and northern waters later today and tonight.
Long term /Monday night Thu/...
as of 4 am Sunday...gradient between low pressure to the south and
high pressure over New England will lead to gusty winds and very
rough seas through Tuesday. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 knots range with
a few gusts to 35 kts. Combo of swell from distant Hurricane Joaquin
combined with the wind wave will lead to rough seas of 10 to 15 feet
outer waters and could reach 15 to 20 feet off obx into Monday. As the low
departs and high pressure builds in nearly winds will gradient diminish to 15
to 25 kts Tuesday night...10 to 20 kts Wednesday and 10 to 15 kts Thursday. Seas
will be slow to subside with Small Craft Advisory continue through Wednesday all waters and Wednesday
night central and northern waters.
as of 4 am Sunday...Flood Warning remains in effect for Chicod creek
at Simpson though water levels have been dropping for the past 18
hours and will likely drop below flood stage later today.
Flood Warning remains in effect for Swift Creek at streets Ferry and
appears to be leveling off about 1/2 foot above flood stage early
NE Cape Fear River at Chinquapin reached flood stage Sat evening and is
forecast to crest around 14.5 feet...or 1.5 feet above flood stage...Monday
Continue to monitor other rivers for possible flooding over the
weekend into early next week as another round of locally heavy rain
as of 430 am sun...have upgraded to a coastal Flood Warning for
all areas. Expect water rises of 2 to 4 feet above normal in all
of these areas with dune erosion and ocean overwash along the
ocean along with Soundside flooding...driven by gale force east/NE
winds coupled with already high water levels across the area.
NC...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for ncz029-
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ncz080-093>095-
Flood Watch through Monday evening for ncz090>095-098-104.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz136-137.
Gale Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for amz130-131-