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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015

developing low pressure offshore will pull away from the coast
while a cold front continues to move south of the area today.
High pressure builds over the area early next week before
another low pressure system affects the region during the middle
of the week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 635 am Sunday...the cold front associated with low pressure
offshore has moved just south of the area early this morning. As
high pressure continues to build in from the north a classic
"wedge" pattern will set up today with northerly flow locking in
low level moisture in the form of widespread low clouds. Scattered
shower/isolated thunderstorm activity that was occurring earlier
to the west has weakened and decreased in coverage as it enters
the coastal plain. Expect the bulk of this activity to remain
north into Virginia so will decrease probability of precipitation to 30-40%. Expect
chances for additional precipitation to further decrease after
16z only light/spotty activity expected in the afternoon. Have
removed thunder from the forecast based on model forecast lifted indice's
which are >0 and the latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook which has the
general thunder area just to our south.

The big story today will be below normal high temperatures due to
northerly flow/cold advection and widespread low clouds. Most
locations will be remaining in the 50s. These readings will be
10 to as much as 20 degrees below normal!


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
as of 350 am Sunday...a slight chance of a lingering evening
shower otherwise dry weather prevails. Think low clouds will be
slow to clear but expect gradual clearing overnight. Continued
northerly flow will contribute to chilly low temperatures in the
middle to upper 40s.


Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 4 am sun...latest run of GFS/European model (ecmwf) in fairly good agreement
through 12z Thursday...then quickly diverge in their handling of
low pressure off the southeast coast. Will use model blend through 12z
then HPC surface solution thereafter.

High pressure over the northern plains will extend southeast into
the area Monday into Tuesday in between departing low in the
western Atlantic and low pressure developing in the north central
Gulf. The high will weaken into Wednesday as the low in the Gulf
develops and moves northeast. The low tracks just off the coast
Thursday morning as it continues moving northeast...though
confidence in exact track remains low at this point. Rain will
overspread the area Wednesday and continue into Thursday. Rain
will end Thursday night as the low moves away. Will go ahead and
bump up probability of precipitation to likely across southern areas and coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night...and on the coastal waters
from Cape Hatteras south on Thursday. Dry weather returns Friday
and Saturday as a surface ridge builds in from the west.


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 635 am Sunday...high confidence in IFR conditions
persisting into early this afternoon. Classic cold season "wedge"
pattern developing over NC today with moisture trapped under a
frontal inversion leading to widespread and persistent low
cloudiness. Expecting scattered mostly light showers as well this
morning. Ceilings are forecast to lift from LIFR/IFR to MVFR
around 18z then from MVFR to VFR around 00z. Expecting gradual
clearing overnight which could lead to some patchy fog. Forecast
moisture profiles look very shallow though so expecting ground fog
and not much impact on visibilities at this time.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 4 am sun...VFR Monday and Tuesday with dry weather
forecast. Sub-VFR in scattered to numerous showers Wednesday and
Thursday as low pressure moves northeast just off the coast.
Surface winds north to northwest 10-15 knots Monday and Tuesday.
East winds less than 10 knots Wednesday...then north 10-15 knots


short term /through tonight/...
as of 635 am Sunday...small craft advisories have been posted for
the sounds and the waters north of Cape Lookout for northerly
surge associated with developing offshore low pressure moving away
from the waters tonight. Northerly winds have increased to 15 to
25 knots as forecast this morning and will continue remainder of
today with seas building to 4 to 7 feet. Winds will tend to back to
the northwest and diminish to 10 to 20 knots tonight as the low pulls
away from the waters. This will result in seas subsiding to 3 to 5

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 4 am sun...northerly flow will be the rule through the long
term. Models in fairly good agreement overall through the period.
High pressure will extend in from the northwest Monday and Tuesday
then weaken on Wednesday as low pressure developing in the
northern Gulf moves northeast. The low is forecast to pass by just
off the coast Thursday morning and quickly depart during the day.
Winds and seas will briefly increase Monday night into Tuesday in
response to low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes moving south
southeast. Small craft seas forecast for the coastal waters north
of Ocracoke Tuesday. Pressure gradient loosens Tuesday night as
the low then moves off to the east. Exact track of the low on
Thursday is still not certain. For now forecasting small craft
seas to return on the coastal waters north of Cape Lookout...but
future model runs may require significant changes.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 2 am EDT
Monday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for amz130-131.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 am EDT Monday for
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 am EDT
Monday for amz156.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 1 am EDT
Monday for amz150.


near term...jme
short term...jme
long term...hsa

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