Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 am EST Friday Feb 12 2016
weak low pressure will develop south of the area this morning then
move northeast offshore of the coast through this evening. An
Arctic cold front will sweep through late tonight with cold high
pressure building in from the northwest through the weekend. The
high will move offshore Sunday night and Monday. Low pressure
will approach from the southwest Monday night and move over or
just west of the area Tuesday.
Near term /through today/...
as of 240 am Friday...continue all previous winter headlines.
Tricky forecast with wintry precipitation expected over the region middle
morning into early evening as weak low pressure develops to the S
ahead of approaching short wave. Models differ a bit on quantitative precipitation forecast amounts
and placement with consensus showing most near the coast and least
inland. Based on this upped probability of precipitation to categorical for the CST and
continue likely deep inland. Forecast soundings support previous forecast of
mainly snow north to rain southern CST. Precipitation shld begin as mainly frozen
over southern tier but gradient transition to rain this afternoon. Over far north
appears precipitation will be mainly snow...poss mixed with sleet late.
In between is where a mixed bag is expected as warm nose aloft
shifts north through the day. Think surface temperatures will struggle to get above
freezing most inland areas given forecast wetbulbs. Have a mix of
snow/sleet/freezing rain this zone with ice accumulation
approaching 1/10 inch centered near ewn. For snow amounts did not
change previous forecast amounts with 2 to poss 3 in northern tier...1/2 to 1
inches in areas with mix and trace amounts southern CST. Highs low/middle
30s inland to upper 30s/around 40 central/southern beaches.
Short term /tonight/...
as of 240 am Friday...precipitation will rapidly end CST with continue mostly
snow/sleet north and rain/snow S. Additional accumulate after 0z will be
minor if any. Arctic front will then sweep through late with
increasing northwest winds espcly CST. Temperatures will drop into the middle 20s
inland with around 30/lower 30s beaches.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 3 am Friday...below normal temperatures will continue through
early next week. A low pressure system will impact the region
Monday and Tuesday...bringing widespread precipitation to the area.
Cold high pressure will build in from the northwest Sat and sun.
850mb temperatures will plummet to -15 to -20c by Sunday with low level
thickness dropping into the 1225-1240m range...resulting in very
cold temperatures this weekend. Some record low temperatures possible Sat
night...then low maximum values possible sun...see climate section
below for additional information. Low level thickness values support
highs 32-38 degrees Sat...and then upper 20s to low 30s Sunday.
Overnight lows...mid/upper teens to low 20s for both Saturday and
Sunday nights. The Outer Banks could see some flurries on and off
Sat night into sun...though think most of the moisture will remain
offshore. Wind chill values in the single digits likely Sat night
into Sunday morning across the region.
High pressure will shift off the coast Monday as the next system
approaches the area. Strong shortwave moving out of the Central
Plains will move eastward...while developing surface low approaches
from the deep south. Slight model differences continue regarding
the timing...strength of the shortwave and the surface low. Though
models continue to track the low through the southeast states...and then
through central NC Tuesday. Will continue SC/low chance probability of precipitation Monday.
Precipitation could begin as light snow inland with a rain/snow mix along
the coast Monday morning before transitioning to all rain by
Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings now showing a slight warm
nose developing in the morning...so could see some sleet mixed in.
Confidence remains low...but some very light accumulation
possible. Increased probability of precipitation to likely Monday night and
Tuesday....with period of heavy rainfall possible. Strong S/southeasterly
flow is expected to develop across eastern NC Monday night into
Tuesday...and given this scenario could see some thunderstorms...possibly
strong/severe. Strong S/southeast winds could bring high surf conditions
and minor water level rises to coastal areas.
Temperatures will rebound next week...highs Monday 40-50 degrees...then
Tuesday/Wednesday in the 50s. Some guidance has highs getting into the
low/middle 60s Tuesday. A cold front will push through the area late Wednesday
into early Thursday.
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 06z Friday/...
high confidence in current VFR conditions persisting rest of
night until around 14z...then deteriorating conditions late
morning through afternoon. Short WV diving in from northwest will induce surface
low pressure to develop and move along just south of area today. With
cold air mass in place...precipitation will likely develop as snow 14z-
17z...then transition to mix of rain...sleet and frzng rain S with
mainly snow and sleet north. Visibilities and ceilings expected to lower to
IFR/LIFR during afternoon and persist into early evening. Forecast will
indicate conditions improving to VFR 02z-03z but confidence is low
given lack of strong cold air advection as low moves to NE...and could see low
level moisture lingering until later tonight. Winds mainly less than 10
knots during period...NE today becoming west-northwest tonight.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 3 am Friday...pred VFR conditions expected through Sun night.
Northwest wind gusts 20-25kt Sat behind the front. Sub-VFR conditions
expected to develop Monday and continue through Tuesday.
Precipitation could begin as light snow or light wintry mix Monday
morning before changing over to rain by Monday afternoon. Heavy
rain will be possible Monday night and Tuesday as low pressure
system impacts the region.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 240 am Friday...surface low will develop to the S this morning
then move NE into the evening. NE winds will increase a bit today
but no higher than 15 to 20 kts southern tier. These winds will lead
to 2 to 4 foot seas. The low will depart tonight with Arctic front
crossing late. Gusty northwest winds will develop in wake of front and
have Small Craft Advisory developing for all but western rivers overnight. Seas will
likely reach 5 to 7 feet outer waters by early Sat.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 3 am Friday...gusty northwest winds continue Sat into early sun behind
the cold front. Northwest winds 20-30kt with occasional gusts up to 35kt
with seas building to 5-9ft. Added chance freezing spray Sat night
into sun with very cold temperatures and gusty winds. Expect winds and
seas to drop below Small Craft Advisory conditions sun evening as high pressure
crests over the waters. However reprieve will be short
lived...expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to re-develop Monday afternoon. An
area of low pressure will approach from the SW Monday...then
likely track inland over eastern NC Tuesday.
Based on the current track of the low...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
show strong sustained gale force winds with gusts to storm force
Tuesday. Did not go quite that high yet...but S/southeast gale force winds
are likely. Capped seas at 8-17ft for now...wavewatch is building
seas on the outer central waters to 23ft. Strong S/southeast winds could
bring high surf conditions and minor water level rises to coastal
record min temperatures for 2/14
New Bern 16/1955 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 15/2015 (khse asos)
Greenville -2/1899 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 11/1968 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 6/1973 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 15/1968 (knca awos)
Record low maximum temperatures for 2/14
New Bern 39/1979 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 35/1958 (khse asos)
Greenville 28/1899 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 37/2015 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 34/1986 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 40/1958 (knca awos)
Record low temperatures for 2/15
New Bern 20/2015 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 21/2015 (khse asos)
Greenville 2/1899 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 21/1969 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 13/1943 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 20/2015 (knca awos)
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 am this morning to midnight EST
tonight for ncz044-079-090>095-098-104.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 am this morning to midnight EST
tonight for ncz029-045>047-080-081-103.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 3 am Saturday to 10 am EST Sunday
Small Craft Advisory from 3 am to 7 PM EST Saturday for amz130-
Small Craft Advisory from 3 am Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday for
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EST Sunday
Small Craft Advisory from 3 am Saturday to 11 am EST Sunday