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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
122 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Synopsis...
low pressure moving across to the north will produce gusty
southwest winds today. A weak front to the north will sag south
again tonight then drift north of the region Sunday. High pressure
will build over the area early next week. Rain may be heavy at
times through Monday night with rainfall amounts between 1 to 2
inches expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 100 PM Saturday...no changes with update. Storm Prediction Center has updated
eastern half of area to slight risk for possible bowing segments later
afternoon into evening. Relatively strong middle level wrly flow will limit
deep convective development...but any storms able to punch through
will be capable of strong wind gusts.

/Previous discussion/ as of 605 am Saturday...not much change to
the upper and surface pressure patterns with a broad upper trough
and weak meandering boundary now north of the region but poised to
sag south again tonight before lifting north Sunday. Model runs
from yesterday were indicating that the 4th of July would see a
minimum of precipitation but now the 00z models are coming in a
bit wetter. While not expecting a washout today, the coverage of
of diurnal convection is expected to reach around 40% by late
afternoon during peak heating. In the meantime expect only widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms through about 16z.

Weaker shear will inhibit storm organization so not expecting much
of a severe threat today. Precipitable water values will remain around 2" so
locally heavy rains will be the main concern with storms.
Expecting much warmer temperatures today with SW flow and will
forecast highs inland in the lower 90s per the met and European model (ecmwf) MOS.
The mav (gfs) MOS looked too cool for highs. As a series of weak
surface lows pass to the north of the region through this evening
the tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy/windy
conditions today with winds gusting to 35 miles per hour at times.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 355 am Saturday...expecting diurnal convection to dissipate
by late evening but with moist/unstable airmass entrenched across
the area will need to hang on to slight chance probability of precipitation late. Lows
will continue in the lower to middle 70s inland and middle to
upper 70s beaches.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Sat...a weak boundary will continue to gradually
sink south into the northern forecast area...then stall Sunday
night before lifting back to the north and washing out Monday.
Increasing moisture and forcing sun as deepening upper trough
approaches from the west. Weak front combined with
seabreeze...lingering outflow/diff heating boundaries and
shortwave energy to the north/west will result in scattered/numerous
showers/thunderstorms Sun afternoon and evening. Will continue likely probability of precipitation
across inland areas and chance along the coast. Isolated strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

Models show upper trough cutting off over the Ohio Valley Monday...then
gradually north-northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Will continue chance probability of precipitation into
Monday night...best chances inland...with good moisture and
forcing...with deep upper trough in place. More of a typical
summertime pattern returns Tuesday through late week...with high
pressure offshore and troughing inland. Scattered diurnal convection
expected each afternoon. Another weak frontal boundary will
approach from the northwest late week. Isolated strong thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon/evening. Low level thickness values and
850mb temperatures support highs near normal through the period...with
highs in the middle 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

Aviation /18z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 18z Sunday/...
as of 100 PM Saturday...VFR conditions through most of the taf
period. Clouds will continue to build into the region as shortwave
activity moves through the westerly flow. Showers and
thunderstorms have already begun to develop in the Piedmont and
move to the east-northeast across the northern Sand Hills/coastal plain. This
will continue through the afternoon/evening with the first batch
across the northern tier and then another line may develop across
isolated/oaj/ewn vicinity. So have thunderstorms in the vicinity through 06z at all taf sites.
Anticipate reduced visibilities/ceilings associated with any of these heavier
showers/storms. SW winds will be gusty through the
afternoon...15kts gusting above 20kts. Winds should subside
through the evening hours with precipitation activity diminishing as
well. Scattered to broken high clouds through the morning hours
with southwest winds picking up by sunrise. Early morning
fog/stratus does not look widespread but localized to areas that
receive rain...have calm winds and breaks in the clouds.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Sat...pred VFR conditions expected through the taf
period. Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
Sunday afternoon/evening...with periods of sub-VFR likely.
Scattered diurnal convection expected each afternoon/evening Monday
through Wednesday. Patchy stratus/fog possible each night/early morning.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 100 PM Saturday...no changes with update. Gusty SW winds
will persist through afternoon with low pressure moving across to north...with
Small Craft Advisory winds/seas for southern and central waters.

/Previous discussion/
as of 605 am Saturday...continue the small craft advisories.
Windy conditions expected over the waters into this evening as a
wave of low pressure slowly passes by to the north of the waters
producing an enhanced SW flow, highest over the waters south of
Oregon Inlet and over the Pamlico Sound. A weak front will drift
south overnight and the pressure gradient will decrease leading to
a slow diminishing trend in the winds overnight. Seas will build
to 5 to 8 feet today and take most if not all of tonight to subside
below 6 feet.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Sat...a weak boundary will continue to gradually
sink south into the northern coastal waters...then stall Sunday
night before lifting back to the north and washing out Monday.
Models still differ slightly how far south the boundary will
drop...but likely will make it into the northern Pamlico Sound and
near Oregon Inlet by Sunday evening. Boundary will make wind
directions tricky for sun and Sun night...with winds north of the
front becoming north/NE 5-10kt and remaining SW 10-15kt ahead of the
front. Pred S/SW flow 10-20kt returns by Monday afternoon and will
continue through Wednesday. Seas 2-5ft through the period.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz152-154-156.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for amz158.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jme
near term...jme/jbm
short term...jme
long term...cqd
aviation...cqd/Lep
marine...jme/jbm/cqd

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