Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWATS INDICATES
1.8-2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN NC AREA. CONTINUED TREND OF
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH ALL BUT THE FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...WILL
DEVELOP AS PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AFTER YESTERDAYS
HEAVY RAINS. LOWS WILL FALL NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
OBX/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...AREA RETURNS TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SO MUCH WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 80S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD AS
UPR RDG IS EITHER OVER OR JUST TO THE W OF REGION. FORCING FOR
PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND EXPECT MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON, AND HAVE A GENERAL
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES
WILL TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS
EACH NIGHT, THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY THRU THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
85-90 AND LOWS 70-75, SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N EXPECT
BETTER NE FLOW AND TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... 
AS OF 1 AM TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR IN LOW STRATUS/FG/BR DUE TO A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, MOIST SOILS FROM AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION,
AND LIGHT/DECOUPLED WINDS. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY 07Z TO ROUGHLY 13Z TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS
AFTER 06Z WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. ONLY A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION A VCSH IN TAFS ATTM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/... 
AS OF 3 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
ISOLD CONVECTION EACH DAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/... 
AS OF 1035 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3
FT NORTH TO 3-4 FT SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS EAST OF CAPE
FEAR THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE LOOKOUT AND OFF
HATTERAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE, THOUGH REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, YIELDING A
WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE VERY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SEAS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/... 
AS OF 3 PM MON...OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRI...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN
FEATURE. LOOSE GRDNT WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS. DIR
TRICKY WITH MDLS DIFFERING A BIT FROM TIME TO TIME HOWEVER WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS SEAS SHLD BE 1 TO 3 FEET THRU FRI.

STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS REACHING 4 FT OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG/TL
MARINE...RF/DAG/HSA

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations