Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
406 PM EST Wednesday Dec 17 2014
high pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday.
Developing low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf Saturday
and move off the North Carolina coast Sunday. High pressure is
expected to build over the area Monday. A stronger low will move
north of the region for the middle of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 632 PM Wednesday...high pressure off the coast with a weak trough
over the western half of the state is giving light westerly flow to
eastern North Carolina this evening. Trough will move over the area
overnight shifting the light flow to northwesterly. May see some
thin high level clouds move into the area. Forecast soundings
showing fairly dry in the low levels so fog is not expected to be an
issue. Despite thin clouds...temperatures should drop into the
middle 30s before sunrise.
Short term /Thursday/...
as of 3 PM Wednesday...high cloudiness will spread over the
eastern Carolinas during the afternoon on Wednesday in a fast
zonal middle-level flow. Weak cold advection will keep temperatures
in the low/middle 60s for highs...some 10-12 degrees cooler than
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...surface high pressure will build in from the Ohio
Valley...meanwhile a weak ridge will build cross the region.
Low level thickness values suggest high temperatures in the upper 40s/middle
50s on Friday.
Active pattern expected this weekend into next week. Models are in a
good agreement with the developing low this weekend. Models have the
low developing Friday near the southern Texas/Gulf of Mexico border and
then move across the Gulf states on Saturday. Low is expected to
intensify off the southeast coast Sat night into Sunday. Uncertainty
remains as 12z/GFS has the low a farther away from the NC coast and
00z/European model (ecmwf) has it closer. Overall...both models are depicting a weak
system and impacts remain small for the area...at this time. Expect
rain across the area on Sat morning...then tapering off Sunday
Morning. Sun will mainly light rain/drizzle...as low moves off the
Models are coming into better agreement with the next low system
early next week. Will keep Monday morning dry and starting probability of precipitation
Monday afternoon. Moisture and middle/upper dynamics increase Tuesday as
the low will likely push northeast...and strong upper trough
approaching from the west. Strong low becomes vertically stacked
over the Great Lake region and will push its associated cold front
middle week bring unsettled conditions.
Low level thickness are suggesting highs this weekend and into
next week...in the upper 40s to middle 50s...and overnight lows
generally middle 30s to 40s.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
short term /through 18z Thursday/...
as of 604 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions over eastern North Carolina tafs
tonight and tomorrow as high pressure builds in from the west. Dry
atmosphere and light winds will be the rule.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 330 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions will dominate Friday. A low pressure
system is expected to impact eastern NC this weekend with likely
possible of MVFR conditions with periods of rain.
short term /tonight and Thursday/...
as of 635 PM Wednesday...west to southwesterly flow over the North
Carolina coast waters this evening generally less than 10 knots with
seas 2 to 3 feet. High pressure along the coast with troughing over
the western half of the state. Trough expected to move over the
waters overnight...shifting flow to a northwesterly direction and
picking speeds up to 10 to 15 knots.
Expect generally northwest/north winds on Thursday at 10 to 15 knots with seas
of 2 up to 5 feet over the outer portions of the marine zones.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 345 PM Wednesday...surface high pressure will continue on Friday from
the northwest. Winds will remain from the northwest 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 feet.
Used a blend of both ww3 and nwps as nwps was slightly overdone with
the offshore flow.
Models are in good agreement with low to impact this weekend. Models
have the low developing Friday near the southern Texas/Gulf of Mexico
border and then move across the Gulf states on Saturday. Its
expected to intensify off the southeast coast Sat night into Sunday. Winds
will be north/NE winds 10-15kt early Sat and peaking 15-20kts late
Saturday into Sunday. Flow becomes north/NE 10-15 on Monday. Waves will
increase 3-4 feet Saturday and peaking 5 feet...north of Ocracoke. At
this time...will continue monitor if Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to
develop across the waters late Sat night/early sun.