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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
538 am EDT Friday may 22 2015

high pressure will build into the area from the northwest today.
The high will then gradually move offshore and provide dry and
seasonably mild weather through early next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 530 am Friday...widespread clouds continue this morning before
exiting to the east as drier air filters in. High pressure builds
over the area from the north with cooler and drier weather across
enc today. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Saturday/...
as of 3 am Friday...dry and cool conds continue tonight as surface high
pressure settles across the area. Lows will be in the lower 50s inland
to the middle and upper 50s coastal sections. A dry cold front moves into
the area late tonight with high pressure re-building from the north.


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 300 am significant changes to previous forecast for
long term period. Models remain in good agreement that high and
dry conditions will persist across area most of period.

Sat-sun...surface high will build in from north Sat...then gradually move
offshore Sunday. Pleasant temperatures and humidity both days with inland
highs 75-80 Sat and around 80 Sunday with obx 5-10 degrees cooler.

Mon-Thu...upper ridge will build over southeast and middle Atlantic coast Monday
and persist through rest of week...resulting in offshore high/Lee
thermal trough surface pattern. Diurnal convective activity will be
limited until Wednesday-Thursday and then just a slight chance inland. Main
feature will be increasing temperatures with highs inland around 90 Tuesday-
Thursday. Humidity not too oppressive yet with apparent temperatures reaching
middle 90s.


Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 06z Saturday/...
as of 530 am Friday...MVFR ceilings will continue for most of the taf
sites through about 14z then exit to the east. Once clouds scattered out or
shift offshore expect VFR conds as high pressure and much drier air
moves in.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am Friday...dry/VFR through the period. Light north
surface flow Saturday then light southerly Sunday through Tuesday.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 530 am Friday...winds north 15 to 20 knots and seas 4 to 7 feet over
the northern and central waters with a Small Craft Advisory until 15z this morning.
Will drop Small Craft Advisory for the sounds and The Alligator river as winds have
diminished below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure builds in across the
waters today with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 knots and seas
subsiding to 3 to 5 feet by noon. High pressure settles in across the
waters tonight with light winds then high pressure rebuilds behind a
dry cold front late tonight with winds becoming northerly 10-15 knots. Seas
will range from 2-4 feet tonight.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am significant changes to previous forecast.
On-going north-NE cool air surge at 15-20 knots Sat morning will diminish
during the day. Gradually veering winds 10 knots or less Sat night
through Sun night as surface high moves offshore...followed by SW
10-15 knots Monday-Tuesday as surface high extends over area from offshore.

Minor adjustments to seas with latest nwps. Heights 4-5 feet over
northern waters Sat morning...subsiding to around 2 feet by
Sunday...building back to 2-3 feet Tuesday.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for amz150-


near term...jac
short term...jac
long term...jbm

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