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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
612 PM EDT Friday Jul 31 2015

a frontal boundary will linger the coast through the weekend. High
pressure will builds into the area from the Atlantic with an
inland trough developing to the west Monday into the middle of next
week. Another cold front will approach from the west on Friday.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 605 PM Friday...sea breeze is beginning to shift inland from S
CST and would expect convection to develop along it where
convergence is maximized. Drier air has pushed in northern tier and
have lowered or removed probability of precipitation this region. Kept higher chance probability of precipitation
over southern tier. Still have threat of locally heavy downpours with
high precipitation water and slow storm motion. Lows will range from around
70 northwest to middle 70s southern CST.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
as of 320 PM Friday...models are trending a bit drier for Saturday
as main axis of convergence and the deepest moisture will be
offshore. Will continue with low chance probability of precipitation near the coast
tapering to minimal probability of precipitation well inland. High temperatures will
generally be in the upper 80s coast and low/middle 90s inland.


Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...a weak cold front will stall near the coast
through the weekend while broad troughing dominates aloft.
Atlantic high pressure will build back in early to middle next week.

Models continue to trend drier for this weekend into early next
week...and will follow trends of decreasing probability of precipitation to less than 20
percent for the northern areas and 20-40 percent on the coast
through the weekend. Any storms that develop could produce locally
heavy rain with precipitable water values near 2 inches along the coast. Low
level thickness values support highs in the upper 80s/low 90s sun
and Monday...with overnight lows in the 70s.

Bermuda high and thermal trough set-up returns early next week and
continues through Thursday...with predominate S/SW flow across
the area and scattered showers/tstms...mainly diurnally driven. Temperatures
warm through the low level thickness values and 850mb
temperatures warm...supporting highs in the middle 90s inland and upper 80s
to low 90s along the coast. Could see marginal heat advisory
criteria Tue/Wed. A cold front will approach the area late week.
Some model differences regarding timing/placement...the GFS has
the front stalling slightly to the north of the area while the
European model (ecmwf) pushes it though the region Friday.


Aviation /22z Friday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 605 PM Friday...tough forecast as guidance varies with
potential for fog/St...espcly closer to CST. Think best chance of IFR
will be oaj and ewn espcly if any precipitation moves over the terminals
this evening. For now will just show some MVFR late but there is
potential for IFR/LIFR. Deeper moisture will shift offshore Sat
and expect once any fog/St lifts by middle morning will see VFR rest of
the day.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...pred VFR conditions expected through the period.
A weak front will stall near the coast or just offshore through
the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Sat night through
middle week...with best chances at ewn/oaj becoming more diurnally
driven Tue/Wed. Patchy fog/stratus possible each night with moist
bl and light winds...especially for areas that receive rainfall.


short term /through Saturday/...
as of 605 PM Friday...sea breeze and south-southwest winds shifting inland over
southern tier and all models show winds gradient becoming south-southwest all waters
overnight and continue through Sat at mainly 10 to 15 kts as front/trf
develops inland. Seas will continue in the 2 to 4 foot range.

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...a weak cold front will linger along the coast or
just offshore through early next week...though expect pred S/SW
flow through most of the period. Gradient tightens through the
day sun with increasing south-southwest winds 10-20kt late sun. A period of
marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sun night...mainly south of
Oregon Inlet...with winds increasing to 15-20kt and seas building
to 4-6ft. Gusty SW winds expected to continue into Wednesday...with
lingering 6ft seas possible into Tuesday night for the central waters.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...rf/ctc
short term...ctc
long term...cqd/sas

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