Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
high pressure will build over eastern North Carolina today and
tonight. A cold front will move through the area Monday and Monday
night. A warm front will move through the area Thursday followed
by a cold front next Saturday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 120 PM Saturday...a broken line of very light precipitation
has developed east of Highway 17 in response to the cold upper
trough crossing the area. Most of this precipitation is likely
evaporating before reaching the ground but we received a report
of a brief ice pellet shower in Jacksonville so have included
isolated rain/sleet until 4 PM to account for this potential.
Clouds have been persistent and will likely persist well into the
afternoon due to heating/cold temperatures aloft. Have lowered maximum temperatures
a few degrees especially across the north where there has been
little heating today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 212 am Sat...atmosphere will continue to dry during the
evening for mostly clear skies overnight. Northerly flow ahead of
approaching high pressure and clearing skies will allow low
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s away from the waters
tonight. A freeze warning will be in effect tonight.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 315 am Sat...surface high pressure will continue to build into
eastern NC from the west-northwest sun...while deep upper trough pushes off
the East Coast. Another cool day with below normal temperatures expected
sun despite the sunny skies. Low level thickness values and 850mb
temperatures -5/-8c support highs in the low/middle 40s along the Outer
Banks...to middle 40s/low 50s inland. Still about 15-20 degree below
normal. Increasing clouds Sun night ahead of an approaching cold
front...with lows in the 30s. A cold front will approach from the
west-northwest Monday...pushing through Monday evening/night. Main change on this
package was to increase probability of precipitation to high chance across the southern
tier with better moisture. Will maintain SC in the northern
counties...to high chance south. Precipitation should be pushing off the
southern coast Monday afternoon. Temperatures warm several degrees...much
closer to climatology Monday...despite the clouds and showers with the southwesterly
flow. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Warming trend and mostly dry conditions expected with surface high
pressure and zonal flow Tuesday and Wednesday...temperatures near climatology Tuesday
and slightly above Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 70s.
A warm front will lift through the region Thursday...with associated
cold front well back to the west. Model differences continue
regarding timing of next frontal passage. GFS pushes the cold
front through Friday/Friday night...while the European model (ecmwf) is much slower not
moving the front through the region until Sat. Will continue to
favor a slower frontal passage at this time closer to wpc/ECMWF.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday with the
region in the warm sector.
Aviation /17z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Sunday/...
as of 120 PM Saturday...high confidence of VFR conditions for the
taf period as drier airmass filters into the region. A northwest
wind flow at 5 to 10 knots gusting up to 15 knots for most of this
afternoon. Skies will clear up tonight as high pressure starts to
build into the area. Winds will weaken to 5 knots or less around
sunset and will continue through the overnight. High confidence of
no fog development will occur as dewpt depressions are above 5
degree spread. Sunday...expect clear skies with north northwest
wind at 5 to 10 knots.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Sat...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Scattered showers Monday ahead of a cold front...brief period of
MVFR conditions possible...especially for iso/ewn/oaj.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 120 PM Sat...no changes to previous thinking. Winds over the
waters will see a slight and brief diminishing trend this
afternoon to around 15 knots but guidance is indicating that another
surge to 20 knots will occur tonight. The continued moderate northwest flow
will help to maintain elevated seas through tonight with rough
conditions for mariners.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Sat...surface high pressure will build over the waters
from the west-northwest sun...while deep upper trough pushes off the East
Coast. Gusty north-northwest winds start off sun with seas 3-6ft highest north
of Ocracoke. Gradually improving conditions through the day...becoming
northwest 10-15kt in the afternoon with seas 2-5ft. The high will move
off the southeast coast Sun night and Monday. A cold front will approach
the waters Monday. Pressure gradient tightens with SW winds
increasing to 15-25kt and seas building to 4-7ft...highest S of
Oregon Inlet. Brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Monday morning
into the evening. Tuesday winds less than 15kt north-northwest in the
morning...becoming SW by Tuesday evening with seas 2-4ft. Gradient
tightens Tuesday night with low to the north and front well to the
South. West-southwest winds will increase to 10-20kt with seas building up to
5ft. At this time think conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
High pressure will build in from the north Wednesday with pred northwest flow
10-15kt and seas 2-4ft.
record low temperatures will be possible across the region
Record low minimum temperatures March 29th
New Bern........28 in 1966
Cape Hatteras...30 in 1966
Greenville......21 in 1966
Kinston.........25 in 1947
Morehead City...34 in 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011
NC...freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EDT Sunday for ncz029-044>047-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for amz150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for amz156.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz158.