Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1039 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015
low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move slowly
northeast through Tuesday. High pressure will then build in from
the north through Friday. A weak cold front will cross the area
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 1000 PM Sunday...no significant changes with update. Band of
showers with embedded heavy rain has formed off S coast past 1-2
hours and likely to affect Carteret and Onslow counties
overnight...while patchy lighter shower activity affects rest of
as of 315 PM Sunday...locally heavy rain...coastal
flooding and gusty winds will continue. Moderate showers continue to
rotate onshore ahead of main band of heavy rain showers to the S. The band
to the S seems to be lifting north a bit faster than models were
forecast so may have to up rainfall amounts over southern tier tonight
if this trend continues. Do have categorical probability of precipitation S to likely north over
night with rainfall ranging from less than 1/4 inch north to near 3/4
of an inch S. Locally higher amounts poss which could lead to some
flooding. Tight pressure gradient will continue over region between the
low to the S and high to the north with gusty NE winds. Winds speeds
likely will remain mainly below advry criteria however wet
saturated ground some trees may be easier to blow down so wind
advry continues all areas. Lows in the 60s inland to lower 70 beaches.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/...
as of 315 PM Sunday...models show the band of best precipitation water and
upper difluence associated with heavy rain lifting toward southern part of
area. Numerous rain showers will continue and some could produce very heavy
rain espcly over southern tier. Will continue Flood Watch for all but far
northern tier through the day as and heavy rain will rapidly runoff due to
saturated ground. Winds will remain gusty so continue wind advry for
poss of a few downed trees. Not much temperature rise tomm with highs in
the upper 60s well inland to middle 70s CST.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 350 PM Sunday...additional heavy rain possible Monday night,
then dry and pleasant weather for middle to late week.
Monday night...stacked low pressure will lift NE south of the
region this period. Axis of deep moisture and lift will push NE
and impact the region, especially the southern tier counties.
Guidance continues to indicate a sharp gradient in rainfall with
much lighter amounts across the northern tier and heavier amounts
across Onslow/Carteret counties. Rainfall of 1-2 inches possible
across southern counties to less than one quarter inch for
northern counties. Gusty NE winds will persist along the coast
with cooler temperatures.
Tuesday...most models are a bit slower pushing the upper low to
the east with precipitation not really tapering off until early Tuesday
inland and late in the day for coastal sections, so maintained probability of precipitation
some. Will see increasing sun from west to east with highs mainly 70 to
75 with much lower dewpoints by the afternoon.
Tuesday night through Friday...high pressure builds southeast from
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley bringing in some cooler and drier
air through late week. Should see min temperatures middle/upper 50s inland
to low/middle 60s coast with highs generally in the 70s. Comfortable
dewpoints in the 50s are likely for most of the middle/late week
Saturday into Sunday...moisture will begin to increase a bit
Saturday as a weak cold front approaches/moves in from the
northwest and crosses the region during the day. Slight chance
probability of precipitation maintained for Saturday due to uncertainty with
timing/location of front. Highs again in the 70s. High pressure
will build south over eastern NC Sunday with highs in the middle 70s
Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through 00z Tuesday/...
as of 730 PM Sunday...current mix of MVFR ceilings at kewn and koaj
with IFR at kpgv and kiso expected to continue a few hours...then
all areas IFR late evening through overnight into Monday morning due
to widespread showers. Continued to indicate ceilings improving to MVFR by
afternoon but this could be optimistic as latest guidance keeps IFR most of
day. Gusty northeast winds will continue through tomorrow with
gusts up to 30 knots.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 405 PM Sunday...widespread sub-VFR conditions are likely
Monday night with light to moderate rain and embedded heavier
showers especially across southern taf sites oaj and ewn. Precipitation
should end across western sections early Tuesday and along the
coast late in the day. Cooler drier air arrives as high pressure
builds south from the Great Lakes and expect VFR conditions to
return Tuesday and continue through Friday.
short term /tonight and Monday/...
as of 1000 PM Sunday...no changes with update. Gusty NE winds with
frequent gusts to 35 knots continuing with seas 10-15 feet.
as of 315 PM Sunday...very hazardous boating
will continue with gale force NE winds combined with swell from
distant Hurricane Joaquin. Tight gradient between low to S and
high to north will lead to NE winds persisting at 25 to 35 kts most
waters with some gusts at or above 40 kts at times. These winds combined
with large swells from Joaquin will lead to 10 to 15 feet
seas...poss reaching 15 to 20 kts off obx.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 410 PM Sunday...gradient between low pressure to the south
and high pressure over New England will lead to gusty winds and
very rough seas through Tuesday. Winds will be in the 20 to 30 knots
range with a few gusts to 35 kts. Combo of swell from distant
Hurricane Joaquin combined with the wind wave will lead to rough
seas of 10 to 15 feet outer waters and could reach 15 to 20 feet for
offshore obx into Monday night. As the low departs and high
pressure builds in, northerly winds will gradually diminish to 15
to 25 kts Tuesday night, 10 to 20 kts Wednesday, and 10 to 15 kts
Thursday. Seas will be slow to subside with Small Craft Advisory continuing through
Wednesday all waters and Wednesday night central and northern
waters. Local Swan/nwps and wavewatch in good agreement through
midweek then wavewatch appears reasonable for the extended period.
as of 1000 PM Sunday...
Flood Warning remains in effect for Swift Creek at streets Ferry
and with levels now 1.6 feet above flood stage.
Flood Warning remains in effect the Trent river at Trenton and at
Pollocksville. Both above flood stage now.
Flood Warning remains in effect for NE Cape Fear River at
Chinquapin...forecast to remain near 13.9 into Monday night.
Continue to monitor other rivers for possible flooding over the
weekend into early next week as another round of locally heavy rain
as of 315 PM sun...several reports of water levels 3 to 4 feet
above normal over areas near southern Pamlico Sound, and significant
flooding of Morehead City and Beaufort waterfronts. Also have some
water over topping dunes over portions of obx. With the strong NE
winds continuing, these water levels will remain high through at
least Monday with occasional moderate flooding and ocean overwash.
Added a coastal Flood Advisory for Tyrrell County as have reports
of some flooding near Columbia as strong winds push water up the
NC...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ncz044-079>081-090>095-
Wind Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for ncz029-
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ncz080-093>095-
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ncz045-046.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Tuesday for amz136-137.
Gale Warning until midnight EDT Monday night for amz130-131-