Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
721 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will continue offshore today. A cold front will
approach the region from the west today and cross the Carolinas on
Friday. High pressure will build across the area this weekend then
shift off the coast Monday and Tuesday.
&&
Near term /today/...
as of 705 am Thursday...convection has blossomed across eastern NC
over the past few hours however lightning remains confined to the
offshore waters near the Gulf Stream. Middle-level shortwave energy
will continue to push north/NE over eastern NC today. Strong upper
trough remains well northwest of the region this morning and will
approach the Ohio River valley later today. Forecast soundings
indicate precipitable waters increasing to 1.90 inches...roughly 2 South Dakota above
normal for may...and matches well with latest blended tpw of
1.80-1.90 inches advecting north across eastern NC. With precipitable waters near 2
South Dakota above normal...heavy downpours will be likely today. With clouds
in place...destabilization will be difficult however cannot rule
out a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon given
increasing shear and upper support. Warm moist airmass in place
today with mixed clouds so full insolation will not be realized.
Maximum temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to 70s obx and Crystal
Coast.
&&
Short term /tonight/...
as of 335 am Thursday...surface front will approach from the northwest
tonight and become oriented south-southwest to north-northeast along the coastal plain
counties by early Friday morning. The upper trough will continue to
dig southeast towards the region overnight. Forecast soundings indicate
drying aloft tonight with moist low levels below roughly 700 mb
and precipitable waters diminishing to around 1.30 inches. Best middle/upper
support moves off the coast by early evening so will continue with
previous probability of precipitation/weather trend of high chance probability of precipitation diminishing to slight
chance from west to east tonight. Clouds will inhibit strong
radiational cooling overnight so expect lows in the lower 60s
inland to upper 60s obx/southern coast.
&&
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...latest runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show them in
close agreement...with a slight edge given to the GFS when
compared to HPC surface graphics. Showers will end from the west
Friday morning as the front exits the coast. Dry and a little
cooler weather in store for this weekend. Surface high will be to
the north with a light north northwest flow. By early next week
the surface ridge shifts off the coast and the flow becomes
southwest again...while a broad ridge aloft builds over the area.
Expect mainly diurnal seabreeze type convection to set up with
probability of precipitation no higher than 30 percent.
&&
Aviation /11z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 720 am Thursday...mix of IFR across pgv/isolated to VFR across
ewn/oaj will continue over the next few hours as weak showers
bloom across eastern NC terminals. MVFR and intermittent IFR
possible across the region through midday as a very moist airmass
advects north over the terminals associated with a middle level
shortwave. Return to VFR conditions expected this afternoon as
shortwave aloft pushes off the coast. A cold front will cross the
region late tonight into early Friday with winds shifting SW.
Boundary layer should remain mixed tonight with showers and thunderstorms
possible.
Long term /Fri through Monday/
as of 315 am Thursday...showers will end from the west on Friday. Light
north northwest flow Friday night through early next week with VFR
conditions.
&&
Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 720 am Thursday...latest surface and buoy observation indicate southerly
flow 13-18 knots with gusts to 20 knots...and seas 3-4 feet north of
Hatteras to 4-5 feet south. Southerly winds will continue 15-20
knots for the central/northern waters with gusts to 25 knots...with
10-15 knots for the sounds and southern waters. A cold front will
approach from the northwest late tonight and act to veer winds SW by
sunrise Friday. 00z guidance indicated slightly less wind field for
the short term...and have lowered winds a few knots but based on
latest wavewatch iii and local Swan/nwps...seas forecast does not
change significantly in the short term. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected
today and tonight as S winds gust near 25 knots and seas build 6-7
feet...with lingering elevated seas for the central waters into Friday.
Long term /Fri through Monday/
as of 315 am Thursday...west to southwest flow on Friday will veer to
north northwest by Friday evening as the front moves off the
coast. Flow will continue northerly with the surface ridge
remaining well to the north. Flow will become southwest again on
Tuesday as the high moves off the eastern Seaboard. Small craft
seas will continue into Saturday night/Sunday for the coastal
waters north of Ocracoke due to the backswell from the surface low
moving north along the coast of the Middle Atlantic States and New
England.
&&
Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 PM EDT
Saturday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 am EDT
Friday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 am EDT
Friday for amz150.
&&
$$
Synopsis...dag
near term...dag
short term...dag
long term...hsa
aviation...hsa/dag
marine...hsa/dag
