Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
959 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
high pressure will extend over the Carolinas from the northeast
through early next week. A cold front will approach from the west
Tuesday and move offshore Wednesday.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 10 PM Thursday...the surface ridge well northeast of the region
will continue to extend over eastern NC tonight though a secondary
ridge centered over western NC/Virginia appears to take over the regime
by late tonight/early Friday morning which will shift winds more
northerly than the persistent northeasterly flow experienced over
the past few days.
Near term guidance still indicating weak coastal/inverted trough
along the NC coast tonight so will maintain the scattered/isolated probability of precipitation
across the coastal waters. One or two of these showers may make it
to land across the obx/downeast Carteret though quickly dissipate
as they move inland and run into drier air courtesy of the high
Main concern overnight will be fog development...as x-over temperatures
look to be reached with dew points in the low 50s this afternoon most
areas. Tonight's lows look to drop into the middle 40s inland which
would indicate a strong signal for fog. Have indicated areas fog
inland to patchy nearer the coast where overnight lows will be
warmer. The fog could be dense at times as winds will be very
light to calm.
Short term /Friday night through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 3 PM Thursday...fog will slowly dissipate Friday as burnoff temperatures
and mixing will be slow to commence under very light northerly
flow. Expect a very warm and sunny day with temperatures well above
climatology for late Nov. 1000-850mb thicknesses climb into the ~1370m
range yielding widespread highs in the 70s (upr 60s obx) as
advertised by the warmer ecs/mav MOS.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 230 PM Thursday...warm and dry through the weekend...then a
better chance of rain early/middle next week.
Friday night through Sunday...high pressure surface and aloft will gradient
weaken and slide S through the period. This will keep area rain free
with temperatures above normal. With plenty of sun on Sat expect highs in
the 70 to 75 dgr range most spots. Heights/thicknesses drop a bit
Sunday and will have more clouds with highs in the 60s.
Sunday night through Tuesday...GFS/ECMWF fairly similar with
overrunning precipitation gradient developing late Sun night and Monday as high
pressure wedges into the area from the north. Both show best chances across
north and have a little higher probability of precipitation these areas. On Tuesday weak low or
warm front like feature develops near CST and this will keep
threat of scattered rain showers over region. Highs Monday seasonal with low to middle
60s. Gradient get into warm sector Tuesday with highs mainly middle to upper
Tuesday night through Thursday...GFS/ECMWF differ a bit on timing of cold
front with GFS a bit faster pushing it offshore early Wednesday. Will
keep chance probability of precipitation going through Wednesday morning then gradient end from west to east later
Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Thursday with dry weather and pc
to mclr skies. Highs Wednesday low to middle 60s then cooling into the upper
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 18z Friday/...
as of 10 PM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the taf
period through this evening as high pressure stays in control. Fog
will likely develop overnight as conditions are clear and nearly
calm with good radiational cooling in place. Cross over temperatures and
condensation pressure def indicate a good potential for IFR/LIFR
fog especially across inland areas. Low level moisture may take a
few hours to mix out in the am as north flow slowly picks up
during the middle morning hours. VFR conditions expected through the
rest of Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 230 PM Thursday...VFR conditions should continue through
the weekend with limited moisture. As usual can not rule out
possibility of patchy early morning fog/stratus most mornings.
Rain chance with some lower ceilings will increase Monday as overrunning
develops with high pressure nosing in from the north. Will continue to have
threat of some rain showers and sub VFR conditions into Tuesday as warm
front/low pressure develops over the region.
short term /through Fri/...
as of 10 PM Thursday...latest observation indicate NE winds 10-15 knots (15-20 knots
over the warm Gulf stream) and seas 5 to 8 feet. Establised weak
coastal trough and high pressure inland will continue the NE winds
through Friday. Winds will generally be 10-20 knots through the period.
Seas will continue to slowly build as east-northeast swell builds due to
approaching broad low pressure well off the East Coast and continued
high pressure ridging into the Carolinas. Seas build to 7 to 10 feet in
long 12 second periodicity by Friday afternoon.
Long term /Friday night through Tue/...
as of 230 PM Thursday...east swells will continue through Sat night keeping
seas elevated and in Small Craft Advisory range all coastal waters. Still looks like
seas will peak Friday night/early Sat at 8 to 10 feet outer central waters.
Winds will continue out of the NE at 10 to 20 kts through Sat as high
pressure continues to the north with weak low well offshore. Another high builds
in from the north later sun into Monday and this will keep NE winds
going 10 to 20 kts...highest Monday. The swell will slowly subside
and expect Small Craft Advisory to end southern waters early sun and late sun and Sun
night central and northern waters. Low level flow become south-southeast Tuesday as cold
front approaches from the west with seas mainly 3 to 5 feet...poss
reaching 6 feet central waters.
as of 3 PM Thursday...persistent east-northeasterly fetch will result
in building long period swells through the end of the week, which
may combine with high astronomical tides to produce high surf and
minor coastal flooding/beach erosion issues during high tide
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Monday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Sunday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for amz150.