Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
broad high pressure will be over the region through the upcoming
week. A trough of low pressure will develop across the Piedmont
of North Carolina middle to late week. A cold front will drop through
the area Friday night with strong high pressure building north of
the region through the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure
develops off the southeast coast early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...weak low pressure analyzed off of Cape Lookout
continues to produce scattered rain showers for coastal areas early this
morning. The low will lift NE and out over the waters later this
morning...with showers becoming confined to the obx before moving
out over the waters. Patchy to areas of fog will continue through
middle morning...especially across the coastal plain counties. Low
stratus will be slow to mix out this morning as plentiful low
level moisture remains and boundary layer winds will be very light.
Light northwest to west flow ensues by afternoon inland...while near the
coast an onshore easterly to southerly flow develops. The onshore
flow may be just enough to produce an isolated shower or storm... so
have confined 20 probability of precipitation to the sound counties of east NC. Elsewhere...
skies will become partly cloudy with highs reaching the middle/upper
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...any isolated precipitation diminishes with loss of heating
by early evening. Winds become calm once again...and with similar
setup...fog potential will exist late tonight and have included
patchy fog mention in grids. Temperatures will drop into the 70-74 degree
range for lows.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...
For Wednesday through Friday...upper ridge builds across the southeast
early Wednesday as a weak short wave trough moves through the Middle
Atlantic States. Forcing is limited with the approach of the upper
wave but could set off isolated convection inland with daytime heating
Wednesday afternoon. Will also keep a slight chance probability of precipitation going through Wednesday
night given the passage of the weak short wave offshore. Thursday
looks mainly dry with subsident weak northwest flow in the wake of the
upper wave, but may again see isolated afternoon convection with surface
heating in the vicinity of inland thermal trough or inland moving
seabreeze. A better chance of organized precipitation with the
approach of another weak upper trough but stronger surface reflection cold
front Thursday night into Friday. Will hold highest probability of precipitation at low chance
for now given difficulty in timing issues through Friday. Temperatures
will be above normal through much of the period with highs into the low
90s inland and upper 80s coast Wednesday and Thursday. Likely a few degrees
cooler Friday with passage of surface front during the day.
Weekend and beyond...decent model agreement for multilayer ridge to
build north of the area during the weekend. This will bring about
generally dry weather with temperatures near or slightly below
normal. There is also a general model concensus for a weak upper
trough or upper low to form over the southeast states with inverted surface trough
development off the southeast coast. It appears that most associated precipitation
will remain south of the area but will need to maintain slight to
low chance probability of precipitation through the weekend and into early next week given the
current uncertainty. Later model runs should help to refine details in
the weekend and beyond forecast.
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through 06z Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...low stratus...fog...and br will mix out by middle
morning today as winds will be slow to mix up the boundary layer
today. Expect light west to north winds less than 5 knots with skies
becoming partly cloudy by middle to late morning. Only an isolated shower
or storm...best chances around kewn...but even here chance is too
slim to mention a vcsh in the tafs. Tonight...winds will become
calm...and with dewpoint depressions near 0 expect another threat
for patchy to areas of fog/br to develop afer around 04z.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...mostly VFR conditions through the period with
mainly isolated convection each day. Will likely have brief patchy
fog/stratus possible each night/morning with light winds and moist
short term /through tonight/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...quiet conditions on the waters as light and
variable winds less than 5 knots early this morning. Seas generally 2 to 4
feet...highest on the outer waters. For today...weak low pulls
northeast of the waters with light north to east winds on the northern
waters...while the southern waters winds become SW as sea breeze
develops due to heating on the Mainland. Winds will be less than
10 knots through the period. Winds become light and variable tonight
with speeds around 5 knots or less.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...overall benign boating conditions expected
across the waters into Friday...with high pressure the main feature.
Loose gradinnt will result in winds less than 10 kts and seas 1
to 3 feet. Stronger high pressure will build in from the north later
on Friday and Sat with NE flow 10 to 15 kts and gusty with seas
reaching 4-5 feet outer waters.