Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
111 am EDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
a front will remain stalled well southeast of the region with
weak high pressure over the area. The high will gradually move off
the coast today. A cold front will slowly approach from the west
Friday...move into the area Saturday and stall on Sunday. The
front weakens early next week as high pressure builds into the
area from the Atlantic...and an inland trough develops to the
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1 am Thursday...added isolated rain showers to coastal areas and waters
near Cape Lookout to near hat for the early morning hours. Otherwise only
minor temperature adjustments to init. Surface analysis shows low pressure well
to the S with trough extending NE offshore of the coast. Radar shows
rain showers over Gulf Stream with some making it into the coastal waters
but quickly dissipate when near the land areas. However 12z models
do show some quantitative precipitation forecast along southern coastal areas so will add a low probability of precipitation
there through the early morning hours. With light winds and mclr to
pc skies will likely see some patchy fog late as dewpoints creep up.
Lows mainly around 7o inland to middle 70s coast.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 3 PM Wednesday...eastern NC will be between a front to the
west and a surface low to the south. As the front moves east and surface
disturbance lifts north and east...conditions will stay surprising
dry across the area. It seems the surface low moving off the coast
will create some subsidence flow across eastern NC with some
drying in the middle/upper levels associated with the ridge. With the
front hanging back to the west...there doesn't seem to be enough
forcing or moisture in the area to even mention anything other
than slight chance. If the surface low migrates closer to the
coast...can not rule out some isolate showers moving into the
coast...but confidence is low. Highs in the low 90s inland to middle
80s along the immediate coast.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...a cold front will approach the region from the
west Thursday night then move into the region Friday...stalling just
along the coast or just offshore through the weekend. Model
differences continue with the boundary...with the GFS keeping the
boundary much further offshore and then mostly dry across the
region through the weekend...while the European model (ecmwf) is much more
amplified with the system...keeping the front along the coast with
prolonged periods of heavy rainfall possible as moisture feeds
from the Gulf. Will continue to follow trends of wpc and previous
forecast favoring the European model (ecmwf) scenario. Chance probability of precipitation Friday through Monday
due to the uncertainty of timing with the front...highest along
High temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s Friday. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler with increased cloud cover this weekend into early next
week with the front stalled over the area. High temperatures in the middle
to upper 80s and lows in the low/middle 70s.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through Thursday/...
as of 1 am Thursday...mainly clear skies overnight and with
light/calm winds will favor temperatures reaching dewpoints around 08z. Models
show minimal condensation press deficits in low levels suggesting
potential for fog/St to develop espcly southern tier. Will continue trends
in previous forecast with S/SW tier (oaj/iso) having best shot for IFR
conds. What fog/St does form will rapidly dissipate after sunrise
today with VFR rest of the day with scattered cumulus developing late morning
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. A front will move into the area Friday then stall near
the coast or just offshore through the weekend. Precipitation chances
increase Friday through the weekend with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible in scattered shower/tstms.
short term /through Thursday/...
as of 1 am Thursday...no sig changes. Currently winds Ely 10 knots or
less with 2-4 feet seas. Pleasant boating conditions through the
period with high pressure in control with a front to the west and
surface low well to the south. Winds will pick up from the southeast
later Thursday as the gradient tightens between the two aforementioned
systems with winds increasing to 5 to 15 knots highest central and northern
Long term /Thursday night through
Monday/... as of 315 PM Wednesday...a cold front will approach the
waters Thursday night...moving into the waters Friday then stalling
right along the coast or just offshore through the weekend. Weak
areas of low pressure will develop and move along the boundary
through early next week. Brief wind shift behind the front
Friday...then flow returning S/SW Friday night and Sat at or below 15kt. SW
continues sun...with gradient tightening and speeds increasing to
10-20kt. Weak lingering boundary will push further offshore Monday as
winds 10-20kt continue. Seas through the period 2-4ft...locally up
to 5ft on the outer central waters.