Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
117 am EST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Synopsis...
a cold front will move through the area from the west
tonight...followed by a secondary front on Tuesday. Arctic high
pressure will build in from the northwest Tuesday night through
early Friday. An Arctic cold front will move through the area
Friday or Friday night followed by the a blast of very cold air
for next weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 100 am Tuesday...added slight chance of showers along coast rest
of night and areas of fog mention for inland sections. Initial
front has reached coast with inland band of rain showers dissipating...but
additional light precipitation is spreading up along coast from SW. Most of
precipitation will likely not reach ground but enough threat to warrant 20
probability of precipitation. Clearing with light winds over areas that received light
rain earlier this evening has lead to some fog development which
will spread mainly west of Highway 17. As low develops offshore on
front to E-NE...west winds will pick up enough to dissipate fog
after 4-5 am. No significant changes to temperatures.

/Previous discussion/
as of 950 PM Monday...shrinking band of rain showers is pushing east toward
CST late this evening associated with cold front. Have precipitation ending
from west to east next several hours. Some fog has been developing just
to the west in wake of rain showers however as west winds increase later behind
front shld limit duration of any fog. No change to temperatures with lows
around 35 inland to upper 30s/around 40 beaches.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...another shortwave will move across the area
Tuesday with not much in the way of a surface reflection. Mean relative humidity
500-1000 mb increases but there is a lot low level westerly flow
which will to act to inhibit precipitation development. With the
latest models not generating much if any precipitation will issue
a dry forecast although an isolated shower or sprinkle could
occur. Low level cold advection will be offset by downsloping flow
such that high temperatures are expected to reach the middle to
upper 50s.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...

Tuesday night into thursday:

Tuesday night and Thursday...deep upper level trough will be placed
over the eastern half of u... well below normal temperatures
through the forecast period. Several shortwaves will rotate around
the base of the upper trough...westerly flow aloft and the lack
of moisture source will keep conditions dry over eastern NC
through Thursday. Tuesday night...leading to a chilly and partly
cloudy night.

Wednesday...gusty westerly winds combined with highs temperatures
struggling into the 40s will make it feel even colder. Temperatures
will be cold Wednesday night as thicknesses quite low and continuing
westerly breeze makes the overnight lows well down into the 20s feel
more like the teens.

Thursday...heights aloft will begin to rise/deamplify...but
longwave trough will remain dominate across the eastern half.
850mb temperature still remains below average...therefore leading
to another cold day with highs in the middle/upper 30s under sunny
skies. Thursday night, expect lows in the low 20s.

Friday and Saturday...another shortwave energy will drop down from
Canada Thursday night into Friday...leading to re-amplifying the
upper level trough over the eastern half U.S. And bringing even
colder Arctic airmass into the southeast region over the weekend.

Both the 08/12z GFS and 08/00z European model (ecmwf) continues to have disagreements
with the next potential weather maker. European model (ecmwf) quite a bit stronger
with forcing...moisture and keeping most of precipitation liquid. While GFS
less amplified though...it brings the threat of a light wintry mix
for east NC. We will have to continue to monitor over the next few
days...in tracking the evolution of this shortwave diving down on
the back-side of the long wave trough that could potentially support
light rain/snow Friday/Friday night. Will continue with 20 probability of precipitation of
rain/snow mix with highs Friday in the lower 40s inland to middle 40s
coast.

Saturday through monday:

A secondary cold front will push through the area Friday night into
Saturday...bringing even colder/drier airmass into the region. The
850mb temperatures will plummet by Sunday to around -20c with low level
thickness dropping into the 1220-1230m range. This can bring very
cold temperatures...especially during the overnight hours. Expect
lows in the upper teens/low 20s Saturday and Sunday night.
Sunday...will struggle to reach above freezing...with highs in the
low 30s.

Monday...temperatures will begin to rebound as the long wave though
axis shifts offshore...with temperatures increasing back into the
40s.

&&

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through 06z Wednesday/...
as of 1230 am Tuesday...areas of fog with IFR visibilities developing for
kpgv and kiso at taf issuance time due to clearing and light winds
where light rain occurred earlier in evening. This fog will spread
toward kewn and koaj next few hours...but expected to dissipate
after 10z as west winds pick up with low pressure developing on front
offshore to E-NE. Some VFR ceiling scu expected to develop during the
day with heating and cold temperatures aloft and will persist into Tuesday
evening. West winds will gust to around 20 knots during the day.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...high confidence of VFR conditions will prevail
through Thursday with westerly flow 10 to 15 knots. A small chance
for rain/snow mix on Friday with a quick moving system moving
through from the west. Still questionable at this time as models it
is questionable at this time how much moisture and cold air will be
available for rain or snow. Stay tuned.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 100 am Tuesday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
as of 607 PM Monday...had to bump up seas quite a bit as very
large swells continue from departed low pressure. Seas are almost double
what wavewatch is showing over northern waters so later shifts will
likely continue to have to bump up seas.

Previous disc...small craft advisories will be in affect for the
coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. A Small Craft Advisory may
be needed for the Albemarle Sound and Alligator river beginning
late Tuesday. Continue advisories for the coastal waters. A new
advisory may be needed for the Pamlico Sound for Tuesday.

Large dangerous swell continues off the northern and central coast
and the wave models are not handling this well as they are underdone
by several feet. This swell should begin to subside some late
this evening but then winds will increase ahead of the cold front
later tonight especially southern and central waters and this will
halt any further decrease in seas. Behind the front westerly flow
is forecast to increase to 20 to 30 knots highest southern and
central waters late tonight and all waters Tuesday. There is
potential for gusts to gale force but not convinced frequency will
be enough to support a Gale Warning so will continue with small
craft advisories. Late Tuesday gusts will be strong enough across
the Albemarle Sound to warrant a Small Craft Advisory.

Seas across the waters will remain above 6 feet with periods
shortening up on Tuesday as winds increase.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 330 PM Monday...poor boating conditions will continue through
much of the period with west/northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and
elevated seas of 6 feet or higher. Small Craft Advisory is expected to
continue through Thursday night for all the coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound. There will be a break on Friday as winds and seas
subside. Expect northwest winds 10-15 knots and 2 to 4 feet. Seas and winds
are expected to increase as another secondary cold front to push
through the coastal waters.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 950 PM Monday...no changes with large swells producing ocean
overwash during high tide. Portions of Highway 12 are closed near
Kitty Hawk and the north end of Ocracoke Island.

Previous disc...lingering very large swells associated with
yesterdays low pressure system will continue to impact the Outer
Banks through Tuesday. These swells in conjunction with the high
tides this evening and Tuesday morning will lead to ocean overwash
and beach erosion especially along Hatteras Island. Portions of
Highway 12 in the usual vulnerable locations could become water
covered around the times of high tide this evening and again
Tuesday morning.

Please see the coastal Flood Warning/advisory for more details.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...coastal Flood Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for ncz104.
Coastal Flood Warning until 11 am EST this morning for ncz103.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 PM EST
Thursday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for amz150-152-154-
156-158.

&&

$$
Synopsis...rf/jme
near term...jme/jbm
short term...jme
long term...bm
aviation...jbm/bm
marine...rf/jme/jbm/bm
tides/coastal flooding...mhx

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations