Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
902 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
a cold front will sag to just offshore and then stall and slowly
weaken through Friday. Weak low pressure will develop off the coast
Saturday and move east away from the area Sunday. Another cold front
will approach from the northwest Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 855 am Wednesday...front has stalled near southern CST with
widespread rain and a few heavier rain showers/thunderstorms and rain spreading north-northeast over
region. Have increased probability of precipitation to categorical many areas through the
morning based on radar trends...also limited thunderstorms and rain to slight chance inland
this morning due to limited instability. Later this afternoon most models tend
to focus better precipitation covering inland and have highest likely probability of precipitation
along and west of Highway 17. Given weak instability and shear think
severe threat limited. Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures in 70s well
inland with poss lower 80s CST.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/...
as of 345 am Wednesday...main axis of heavier precipitation moves
toward the coast tonight...but additional light to moderate rain
will also continue inland. Have kept probability of precipitation in the likely range
through tonight. Expect the convection to wane with loss of
heating tonight however. With the air being rain-cooler over much
of the area...expect slightly lower minimum temperatures tonight
in the middle/upper 60s.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...no big changes in the long term. Upper low
with several vorticity centers rotating around it over the Carolinas
Thursday and Friday will move east off the coast Friday
night...taking the stationary boundary/trough at the surface with
it. Will continue likely probability of precipitation on Thursday then 50% chance Friday.
Mainly chance probability of precipitation for the remainder of the period with warm and
humid airmass in place. The next front will drop through Saturday
night then lift back north Sunday night.
Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through 06z Thu/...
as of 7 am Wednesday...widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue to be the rule today. Will see
widespread sub-VFR conditions through most of the day...although
in lighter rain...conditions will likely improve. Light rain
lingers into tonight and most all guidance indicating periods of
IFR conditions in stratus and some fog and will indicate this in
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...convection will be most numerous Thursday then
becoming more scattered Friday through Sunday. Light surface winds
less than 10 knots through the period. VFR except in convection
and in late night/early am fog.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 855 am Wednesday...bumped up seas to show some 4 footers northern
waters where north winds a bit higher behind front...otherwise no
Previous disc... winds generally NE at 10 to 15 knots sounds and
central waters and 5 to 10 knots elsewhere. Some gustiness may
occur in convection this morning and afternoon. Seas are in the 2
to 4 foot range. With high pressure off New England and an
inverted trough just offshore...the gradient along the North
Carolina coast remains rather slack through tonight. Expect east/NE
winds today becoming more southeast tonight. Seas should remain 2 to 4
feet with 7 to 8 second wave periods today and tonight.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...upper low and stationary boundary at the
surface will move east over the next few days with light winds no
higher than 5-10 knots. Flow will be southeast Thursday and
Thursday night...backing to east to northeast Friday through
Sunday. Seas mainly 2-4 feet...except Saturday when seas
temporarily build to 3-5 feet north of Ocracoke in northeast