Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
949 PM EST sun Mar 1 2015
a stationary front will linger near the coast tonight. A cold
front will move through Monday. High pressure behind the front
will pass by to the north Monday night. A cold front will move
through Thursday. High pressure will build to the north Friday
into the weekend.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 945 PM sun...only minor changes to the update...weak
stationary front/coastal trough continues to linger along the
coast this evening. The front will gradually move offshore tonight
as flow becomes more westerly across the area. Latest radar imagery
shows widespread light rain/drizzle across the coastal counties.
High- res models in good agreement showing activity moving off the
coast during the next couple hours. Will continue likely probability of precipitation
along the coast through late evening then taper back to low
chance/SC. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible overnight with
moist bl and light winds. Overnight lows in the middle/upper 30s
inland to low/middle 40s along the coast.
Short term /Monday/...
as of 4 PM sun...cold front moves through from the northwest
during the day. Will continue with 20-30% probability of precipitation in the morning
along and east of Highway 17 then dry in the afternoon with the
front moving off the coast.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 4 PM sun...an active weather pattern this week as transient
systems in a split flow regime affect the forecast area. Large
swings in temperature will bring springlike warmth during midweek
followed by a chance of wintry precipitation on Thursday. Unseasonable
cold returns late in the week.
High pressure builds across the area Monday night. Temperatures fall
quickly in the evening given the dry air in place under clearing
skies. Model differences occur with timing of the breakdown of the
high pressure wedge and have favored the NAM solution/cooler side of
MOS guidance given the tendency for models to scour out the colder
air too quickly. Lows will fall at or below freezing over deeper inland
areas by early Tuesday morning and this could be an issue for ptype if
warm air advection induced precipitation developing to the south reaches inland areas
before daybreak. Will hold off on introducing probability of precipitation for now but
model errors in developing precipitation too late in overrunning situations
(like this morning) make it a low confidence forecast.
Showers will be scattered throughout the day Tuesday as the warm
front lifts north through the forecast area. Like today, may
again be a large temperature gradient as wedge holds tight over
inland areas with highs only in the 40s over far western areas and
surging into the 50s (possible 60s) at the coast. Wedge looks to
finally erode late Wednesday or overnight Wednesday and diurnal temperature
ranges may be small during this timeframe.
Models are in good agreement for unseasonably mild temperatures (for
a change) on Wednesday with highs into the 70s away from any
cooling onshore breezes. Models also trending later with rain chances
to late Wednesday into Wednesday night as Ana-front type precipitation sets up
behind the incoming surface boundary.
Surface cold front drops gradually through the area Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Precipitation chances increase as the front moves through and brings
the next round of Arctic air. Thermal profiles favor a changeover to
frozen precipitation from north to south during Thursday before
ending later Thursday afternoon or evening and will introduce a chance of
snow and sleet. Too early to get much detail about possible
accumulations as yet but precipitation looks to be moving through quickly
which would limit amounts.
Precipitation ends late Thursday/Thursday evening from northwest to se, with strong high
pressure building east over the region from the Tennessee Valley
area into Saturday. Thicknesses fall quickly behind the front Friday
with highs only expected in the 40s Friday and upper 40s to lower
50s Saturday/Sunday. Lows Thursday and Friday will drop well into the 20s.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through Monday/...
as of 7 PM sun...widespread IFR conditions currently with ceilings
5-700 feet. Light rain and drizzle continues across the region this
evening...though should taper off late tonight. Moderate to high
confidence of IFR through 06z. After 06z as boundary moves
offshore and start to get westerly flow could potentially see ceilings lift
to MVFR...though will keep terminals at IFR based on forecast
soundings and the narre. In addition to ceilings could have areas
of fog as well develop overnight and persist into Monday morning.
Sub-VFR conditions could persist into late morning...before
lifting to VFR behind the cold front. The front will move through
the terminals late morning/early afternoon with winds veering
becoming north 10-15 knots.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 4 PM sun...drier air spreads in with VFR expected Monday evening.
Front to the south will lift back north Tuesday with possibly some
lower flight categories as moisture increases over the area with
scattered rain. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday as
surface flow shifts southwest and may become gusty Wednesday
afternoon with just widely scattered rain showers. Strong cold
front will cross late Wednesday night and move offshore Thursday. Good covering
of rain Wednesday night and early Thursday with precipitation diminishing
late...poss mixed with some snow or sleet inland. Sub VFR
conditions good bet later Wednesday night and much of Thursday. Strong high
pressure builds in for a return to predominant VFR late in the
short term /through Monday/...
as of 945 PM sun...no changes made to the update...latest observation
shows westerly winds 10-15kt across most of the coastal
waters...with seas 3-6ft. Boundary continues to linger along the
coast this evening...though should gradually push back offshore
late tonight. Southerly flow has produce small craft seas for a
brief time in the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. As flow
becomes west after midnight seas will then subside. A cold front
will move through the marine zones Monday with flow veering from
west to north during the day. Small craft winds/seas then develop
in the waters north of Ocracoke during the day.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 4 PM sun...NE winds 15 to 20 kts expected Monday night as high
pressure builds in from the north with seas possible 6 feet far outer waters.
Winds briefly diminish Tuesday morning then begin to ramp up from the S
late Tuesday as warm front lifts north through the area. Seas will diminish
early Tuesday then ramp back up to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday evening highest
far outer central waters. Gusty south-southwest winds will develop Tuesday night and
continue Wednesday ahead of approaching cold front...seas will build to 5 to
9 feet outer waters Wednesday. The cold front will cross the eastern NC
coastal waters Wednesday night/early Thursday with strong high pressure
building in from the west Thursday, leading to gusty north winds Thursday
with seas of 5 to 9 feet. Winds/seas slowly decrease as cold air
advection wanes on Friday.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Tuesday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 am EST Tuesday for