Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1007 PM EST Friday Dec 6 2013
a cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and cross
the region Saturday morning. The front will stall to the south
into Sunday then lift back north through the area Sunday night.
A stronger cold front will approach from the west Monday and cross
early Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of10 PM Friday...forecast looks good with minor tweaks made
to temperatures/dew points. Also some isolated showers noted along the
coast...so added probability of precipitation to account for this.
cold front to the northwest will reach far northern tier toward daybreak. Will
have mild SW winds ahead of the front with temperatures hovering in the
60s to around 70 much of the night...will drop a bit far northern tier
prior to 12z as winds shift to NW/N. Think rain will hold off until
late and mainly impact northwest sections. Have lowered or removed probability of precipitation
southeast CST and continue likely far northwest tier late.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
as of 215 PM Friday...cold front over northern tier early will push S
through the region Saturday morning. Temperatures will not follow typical
diurnal curve with highs early in the day with temperatures lowering
with strong cold air advection in wake of front. By late afternoon temperatures will be in
the 40s north to lower 50s far S. Models similar in showing deep
moisture mainly with and behind cold front and expect widespread
rain with likely to categorical probability of precipitation. Rainfall will not be overly
heavy with around 1/4 inch most spots.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...upper trough will remain centered over the
central/western Continental U.S. As a strong ridge aloft remains centered
over Florida and the southeast Continental U.S....placing eastern NC in SW flow
aloft through early in the week. A strong frontal inversion will
be present Sat night through sun as winds just aloft remain SW
with strong northerly surface winds. This will produce widespread rain
and low clouds through Sunday. Cooler temperatures expected on Sunday
due to clouds/precipitation with highs struggling in the 40s inland to
50s along the coast. Latest guidance continues to indicate a
coastal trough developing Sun afternoon...which becomes a weak low
that moves north-northeast along the NC coast Sun night. As the low moves NE
of the area late Sun night/early Monday morning...cold air damming
scenario will shift northwest of the region as SW return flow takes over
with eastern NC again in the warm sector. Rain chances will end
from south to north across east NC late sun...with only isolated showers
expected by Sun night.
Upper ridge will strengthen again Monday with high temperatures expected
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly sunny skies. Low
level thicknesses build to the 1380 meter range...but mixed
clouds may inhibit full insolation so held temperatures in the low 70s
to upper 60s...although greater breaks in cloud cover could mean
temperatures reaching a few degrees higher than currently forecast.
Another cold front will pass through eastern NC early Tuesday
morning...meaning another non-diurnal temperature regime expected with
highs being realized in the morning with temperatures plunging in the
afternoon. Rain expected once again with this frontal boundary as
plenty of gom moisture will be present with the strong forcing
expected. Best chances will be late Monday night across the north
transitioning to the rest of the forecast area Tuesday. Have increase probability of precipitation to likely
due to strong agreement amongst operational runs between GFS/ecm
and ecm ensemble mean. Rain will quickly end by Tuesday evening as the
front sweeps offshore. Much cooler/drier air will filter in behind
the front with highs in the upper 40s/low 50s Wednesday/Thursday with lows
below freezing most areas inland.
Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Sat/...
as of 645 PM Friday...started MVFR conds at 06z for ewn and oaj.
Continue trend of IFR conds afternoon 12z all taf sites as previous forecast.
Mainly VFR this afternoon through the evening as area in warm sector
ahead of approaching cold front. Guidance suggests widespread IFR
later this evening but for now continue VFR thinking mixing will limit
fog/St init. SW winds around 10 knots overnight at the taf sites
becoming west late with approach of the front. Cold front will reach far
northern tier around daybreak Sat then push S quickly through the morning.
Just ahead of and behind front expect good covering of rain with
conditions lowering to at least MVFR and poss some occasional IFR late
tonight through Sat. North winds will be gusty after frontal passage Sat.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...model soundings indicate a prolonged period of
MVFR/IFR conditions through much of Sunday...with widespread rain
continuing through sun. A weak low off the coast will push NE
through the area Sun night with SW flow taking over and precipitation
chances diminishing with lower ceilings lifting north of the region...though
fog may be a possibility Sun night. Another cold front cross the
terminals from northwest to southeast Tuesday with another round of MVFR/IFR
conditions possible in lowered ceilings/visibilities through Tuesday. High
pressure builds over the region Tuesday night through middle to late
week with VFR returning in MO sunny skies.
short term /through Sat/...
as of 10 PM Friday...SW winds are 10-15kts closer to shore with
15-20 knots across the central/outer waters with higher gusts.
Anticipate winds to continue to increase as the front nears over
the next several hours. Seas 3-5ft currently with 6ft sets
expected to develop in the next couple hours. Will monitor the
progression of the winds/seas with the Small Craft Advisory in effect for much of
Previous discussion...gusty SW winds tonight ahead of front with
speeds 15 to 25 kts. Front will reach far northern waters around daybreak
then surge S with gusty north winds 20 to 30 kts in its wake. Continue Small Craft Advisory
headlines with all but Albemarle reaching criteria this evening in
SW flow then all waters have Small Craft Advisory Sat in wake of front with the gusty
nearly winds. Seas ahead of the front will peak at 5 to 7 feet
overnight. As nearly winds increase Sat seas to 8 feet or so expected
outer central and northern waters by afternoon.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist over the waters
through the weekend as north surge of 20-25 knots continues through Sun
morning. Seas should maximum out at 6 to 8 feet across the northern
waters Sat night into Sun morning. Models in agreement with a weak
inverted/coastal trough over the southern/central waters Sun
afternoon which develops into a weak surface low and moves north-northeast
along the NC coast Sun night. Surface winds will become SW once
the weak low lifts north of the waters Sun night. Winds and seas
briefly subside below Small Craft Advisory criteria Monday morning with SW winds 10-15
knots and seas 3-5 feet...then increase to 15-20 knots and seas 4-7 feet Monday
night as the gradient tightens between surface ridge off the
southeastern coast and a cold front approaching from the northwest. Cold
front will pass through the waters Tuesday with winds turning sharply
northerly with speeds 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas will
build to 5 to 7 feet with the strong cold air advection.
below is a summary of the
climatological record high temperatures for today...December 6th:
Record high for Dec 6:
New Bern 81 (1998)
Greenville 80 (1998)
Kinston 81 (1982)
Newport 77 (1998)
Bayboro 82 (1998)
Morehead City 74 (2011)
Williamston 76 (1998)
Cape Hatteras 77 (1982)
Ocracoke 73 (1975)
Manteo 78 (1998)
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Sunday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM EST Saturday for amz130.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for amz150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for amz156-158.