Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
650 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will build into the area today then move off the
coast tonight. A weak cold front will move through from the west
Friday night. A secondary stronger cold front will cross the area
Saturday night stalling south of the region Sunday. Developing low
pressure in the plains will push a warm front north into the area
Tuesday...with a cold front approaching late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 650 am Thursday...no changes to previous forecast thinking.
High pressure with very dry air will continue to build over the
region from the north today. Secondary cold advection surge early
this morning will produce gusty winds especially along the coast
then winds will rapidly diminish to light and variable in the
afternoon with a sea breeze developing coastal sections. Skies
will remain clear but northerly low level flow will help to
produce cooler high temperatures today with readings ranging from
around 60 Outer Banks to the lower 70s southwest zones.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 245 am Thursday...the high will move offshore late with
light southerly return flow developing. This will lead to
moistening of the dry atmosphere and with warm advection will
likely produce a low cloud deck after 06z. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 315 am Thursday...models continue in good agreement with the
timing of a cold front approaching and moving through the area
Friday evening into Friday night. There will be an opportunity for some
thunderstorms to develop as the system moves through around or shortly
after peak heating. Strongest aspect of the shortwave/vortmax
aloft will cross north of the area through southern Virginia...with only
the southern edge of this feature clipping the mhx County Warning Area. No change
to current high-chance probability of precipitation with thunderstorms...with the biggest threat
being damaging wind gusts and marginal hail.

For the remainder of the period followed close to wpc guidance with
a blend of the previous forecast and GFS thrown into the mix. We
should remain dry through sun with just a very slight chance of a
shower on Monday. A better chance of a showers/thunderstorm will be Tuesday into
Wednesday as an area of low pressure passes to our north and trailing
cold front approaches the area. This will couple with a developing
trough and possible upper low over the eastern Continental U.S. By Wednesday.

Followed close to GFS MOS and wpc guidance on temperatures. Temperatures
will run a bit above normal Friday through Saturday...cooling down
slightly sun and remaining near seasonal the remainder of the period.

&&

Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 650 am Wednesday...very high confidence in VFR conditions
through most if not all of the taf period as high pressure with
dry weather and light winds prevail across eastern NC. Late
tonight warm advection will occur along with a moistening
southerly return flow. Forecast soundings are showing moistening
in the 2000-3000 feet layer with BUFKIT and NAM forecast soundings
indicating ceilings around 2000 feet developing by 09z. Confidence
is low in this at the moment so will introduce just a scattered
2000 feet deck with this taf issuance.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 am Wednesday...mainly VFR conditions expected through much of
the week. A weak front will approach eastern NC on Friday and move
through early Friday night with isolated MVFR conditions possible in
heavier showers/tstms. High pressure will dominate Sat through Monday
with predominant VFR conditions expected.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 650 am Thursday...main changes to previous forecast were to
decrease sea height forecast from 5 to 8 feet to 5 to 7 feet as
current surge is producing 4 to 6 feet seas and surge is now at it's
forecast peak and will begin to diminish after 15z. With this in
mind I have ended the advisories a little faster by 18z vs 21z in
the previous forecast. Winds will begin to rapidly diminish this
afternoon as high pressure crests over the waters. Seas will
begin to rapidly subside as well falling below 6 feet by 18z today.
Winds will be light tonight/10 knots or less/ with seas subsiding to
2 to 3 feet.

The nwps wave model seems to be a little overdone with a forecast
of 5 to 8 feet seas so blended it with wave watch and will indicated
subsiding seas after 12z with a more rapid decline in wave heights
expected this afternoon with slight seas tonight in the light
flow.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...winds shift southerly into Friday morning ahead
of an approaching upper level shortwave and associated weak cold
front. The front will cross the eastern NC waters Friday night. Winds
and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria with this frontal
passage. A stronger backdoor cold front will move through the
waters from north to south Sat night with winds veering north/NE
behind the front by 12z sun. Winds and seas again look to remain
just below Small Craft Advisory criteria...though cannot rule out some rough seas
4-6 feet near Diamond Shoals with moderate surface winds opposing
the Gulf Stream current. Winds diminish by Sun night and slowly
switch around to southerly as weak high pressure slides off the
coast by Monday. Light winds/seas will persist through Monday with
winds picking up more Tuesday as the next low and cold front approaches
the area. Local Swan/nwps continued in close agreement with 00z
wavewatch...and predominantly followed it followed by ww3 guidance
towards the end of the period.

&&

Fire weather...
as of 245 am Thursday...increased fire danger conditions again
today due to low relative humidities of 20 to 25 percent but not
as critical as Wednesday as winds will be lighter especially
during peak heating when they will be light and variable.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for amz150-
152-154.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jme
near term...jme
short term...jme
long term...dag
aviation...jme/dag
marine...jme/dag
fire weather...jme