Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
647 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
high pressure will build shift offshore through Thursday. A cold
front will approach from the west late Friday and cross the region
by middle day Saturday. High pressure will build in from the
northwest Sunday and move offshore early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 638 PM Wednesday...surface high pressure over eastern North Carolina
tonight with high rpessure building in aloft. Ridge axis will shift
offshore over night bringing surface flow to southeasterly. Dry
atmospheric column evident on forecast soundings through the night.
Clear skies and light wind will produce radiational cooling...which
will allow temperatures to drop into the middle 30s for a threat of
patchy light frost away from the waters. A frost advisory is in
Short term /Thursday/...
as of 3 PM Wednesday...high pressure shifts offshore with return southeast to S
flow developing. Pleasantly sunny day with highs in the low 70s
inland to middle/upper 60s coast. Relative humidities will continue to
be low inland though should not see fire weather concerns as winds
will only be in the 5 to 15 miles per hour range.
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
as of 245 PM Wednesday...high pressure will gradually shift
offshore Thursday night into Friday with a warm southwest flow
developing. It will be quite warm with highs ranging from the
lower 80s inland to lower 70s Outer Banks. With decent instability
in place with surface based lifted indice's around -4 and weak low-level
convergence...will continue small chance of afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms along any sea breeze boundary that can develop.
Friday night/Saturday...fairly strong cold front will approach
from the west Friday night...moving offshore by midday Saturday.
Ramp probability of precipitation up to high chance/low likely by early Saturday morning
through around midday...but best instability remains offshore.
After a mild start Saturday morning with lows around 60...maximum
temperatures Saturday only climb a few degrees to the middle 60s...some
15-20 degrees cooler than Friday.
Saturday night/Sunday...strong cool high pressure builds east for
Easter Sunday. Expect rather chilly morning low temperatures
Sunday in the middle 30s inland to middle 40s Outer Banks and with the
axis of the high near the coastal plains Sunday morning...winds
could decouple with some patchy frost well inland. Highs on Sunday
should rebound to the low/middle 60s.
Sunday night/Monday...high pressure moves offshore with southwest
flow again commencing. This will push high temperatures some 5-10
degrees warmer than Sunday with highs middle/upper 60s coast to lower
70s most inland areas. Clouds will increase during the day Monday
given the southerly flow and increased middle-level shortwave energy.
Monday night/Tuesday...with strong low-level warm advection and
deeper moisture advecting into the region...Tuesday will be warm
but increasingly cloudy with a chance of a few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two late in the day. High temperatures
will range from the upper 60s Outer Banks to middle 70s inland. Probability of precipitation
remain in the slight chance range for Tuesday.
Tuesday night/Wednesday...a slow-moving cold front will lead to
increased rain chances Wednesday and have probability of precipitation in the high chance
range. Ahead of the front on Wednesday...high temperatures should
reach the lower 70s coast to around 80 inland.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through 00z Friday/...
as of 641 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions through the period with high
pressure both at the surface and aloft bringing mainly clear skies
to eastern North Carolina taf sites. Will see an increase in upper
level moisture late in the period as next system approaches allowing
cirrus to move into the area.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 245 PM Wednesday...with a warm southwest flow...there could
be some widely scattered showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze Friday
afternoon and evening with a brief drop to MVFR conditions. Expect
periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night and Saturday morning
as showers increase ahead of a cold front. Sunday into Monday with
be VFR as cool high pressure builds into the region from the west.
short term /through Thursday/...
as of 645 PM Wednesday...northeasterly flow over the North Carolina
coastal waters this late afternoon running 15 to 20 knots. Seas have
fallen below Small Craft Advisory levels so will allow Small Craft
Advisory to expire as scheduled. High pressure at the surface
bringing the northeasterly flow. Ridge axis will shift over the
waters tonight bringing the surface flow to a more easterly
direction by sunrise. Speeds will remain 10 to 15 knots in the loose
gradient. Wind will shift to southeasterly on Thursday as the ridge
axis moves east of the waters. Speeds to remain light.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 245 PM Wednesday...moderate southwest winds are expected
Thursday night as high pressure moves offshore. A period of Small
Craft Advisory winds/seas are possible...starting in the gusty
southwest flow ahead of the front Friday into early Saturday and
continuing in the northwest/north surge behind the front Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Winds subside as axis of Cool
Ridge of high pressure builds east across the region Sunday and
gradually shifts offshore Sunday night and Monday.
NC...frost advisory from 4 am to 8 am EDT Thursday for ncz029-