Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
207 PM EDT sun Mar 16 2014
a cold front will move south through eastern NC early this
morning. The front will stall south of the area this afternoon
through Tuesday as a series of low pressure systems move east
along the boundary. High pressure will build in from the north
Tuesday night and slide offshore Wednesday. Another cold front
will cross the area Thursday followed by high pressure Friday.
Near term /this afternoon/...
as of 130 PM sun...no changes with update. -Ra spreading into east NC
and increasing categorical probability of precipitation this afternoon still on track.
Previous discussion...as of 1015 am sun...minor changes with the
near term forecast this morning. Latest kmhx vwp indicates cloud
deck lowering to 5k feet. Radar returns aloft indicate precipitation
developing across southern/western portions of the forecast area. Have fine
tuned pop trends through early afternoon with a steadily increase rain
from SW to NE. Latest 16/12z NAM has initialized fairly well and
shows precipitation overtaking all of east NC by middle afternoon...therefore
categorical probability of precipitation later today still on track. Raised highs a couple
degrees as temperatures are climbing through the 50s. Think that once
rain makes it to the surface temperatures will cool throughout the
afternoon...steadily falling towards 50 or below.
Previous discussion...the backdoor cold front will continue to
move south through eastern NC this morning and stall across
southern sections this afternoon. Weak vortmax will shift through
eastern NC by 18z. A weak surface wave will form along this
boundary this afternoon and push through eastern NC through
tonight. Models appear in good agreement for the near term. Latest
hrrr/rap/NAM and NSSL WRF simulated reflectivity indicate precipitation
beginning after 15z for SW zones then overspreading the region by
early afternoon. Given very dry airmass currently in
place...moisture will likely take a while to saturate the middle/low
levels and thus delayed onset of precipitation until after 15z then a
quick ramp up to categorical probability of precipitation by this afternoon. Quantitative precipitation forecast will
range near 0.25 inches north of Highway 64 to near one half inch
closer to the southern Crystal/obx coast. Cloud cover and rain
will keep temperatures well below climatology again today...highs in the low
50s for northern zones to upper 50s near the southern coast.
Short term /tonight/...
as of 725 am sun...models in overall decent agreement tonight
leading to a high confidence forecast. A second and stronger
surface low will develop along the stalled boundary early tonight
as another weak disturbance moves through the region aloft. No
major changes with the forecast tonight...rain may be heavy at
times with quantitative precipitation forecast of 0.75 inches along the coastal plain
counties/west of Highway 17 to 1.25 inches along the immediate
coast...which may cause some minor flooding mainly for low-lying
and poor drainage areas. Northeast winds will strengthen overnight
as a tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure north
of the area and low pressure developing along/south of the coast.
Will monitor near- shore buoys north of Cape Hatteras for possible
high surf advisories as seas build 8-10 feet late tonight. Temperatures
overnight will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s inland with
upper 40s to l0w 50s expected along the coast/obx.
Long term /Monday through Sunday/...
as of 3 am sun...expect a bit of a break in the rain Monday as
init surface low and associated area of lift shifts eastward. Continued
frontal inversion will continue however keeping low overcast in
place and quite chilly temperatures with in-situ damming situation
setting up. Guidance similar with well below temperatures as highs will
struggle to get above 40 northwest tier to lower 50s southern coast. It will
be quite blustery as well with gusty NE winds making it feel quite
Rain chances will increase again Monday night into Tuesday as another
shortwave approaches from the SW and crosses. Models all show best
moisture and quantitative precipitation forecast CST with less inland continue previous trend of likely
probability of precipitation CST tapering to chance inland Tuesday. Moderate to strong NE winds
will continue along the coast and the prolonged NE flow may result
in high surf north of Cape Hatteras...and elevated water levels for
southern Pamlico Sound. Continued north/NE flow and clouds Tuesday will keep
temperatures cool with upper 40s/lower 50s northwest to middle/upper 50s CST.
Drier and more seasonal weather Wednesday through Sat with zonal flow
aloft. Low level flow will veer to more southeast/S Wednesday ahead of next weak
cold front. May be just enough moisture and weak lift for spotty
rain showers but not expected much. The weak cold front will cross later
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Moisture and lift lacking and only show
slight pop NE tier late Wednesday night and early Thursday. High pressure will
then build in later Thursday through Friday with dry weather. Next cold front will
approach Friday night and cross Sat...for now continue previous forecast of just
slight probability of precipitation Sat as again looks like limited moisture. Highs will
be mainly in the 60s Wednesday through Friday inland with upper 50s to around 60
CST. Sat looks warmest based on front not crossing until later in
day with lower 70s inland.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
short term /through Monday/...
as of 1245 PM Sunday...both ceiling and visibility conditions will
be diminishing to MVFR and then down to IFR conditions by early this
evening. A series of weak surface lows/upper level disturbances will
be effecting all taf sites with widespread rain and will
continue overnight. MOS guidance and sounding models have a
good agreement with the upcoming conditions...therefore have high
confidence for this afternoon and evening with the heaviest precipitation
around 00z. Expect ceiling conditions to slightly improve tomorrow
around 15z as confidence is only 50 percent.
Long term /Mon through Thu/...
as of 3 am sun...rain may let up Monday however low clouds will be
locked in with mainly IFR expected. As another low tracks NE off
the CST later Monday night and Tuesday will see better rain covering espcly
near CST with continue low ceilings likely in IFR range. North/NE winds will
likely gust to 20 kts or so Monday through Tuesday. Rain shld taper off and
mainly end Tuesday night and Wednesday...ceilings shld slowly lift gradient becoming
VFR Wednesday. Weak front will cross later Wednesday night or early Thursday with
poss some reduced ceilings. VFR returns later Thursday as much drier air
short term /through tonight/...
as of 130 PM sun...latest surface and buoy data indicate north/NE
winds 10-20 knots northern waters with seas building 4-5 feet. Winds NE
5-10 knots central and southern waters where vicinity surface trough axis is
keeping gradient relaxed at this time. Winds continue 10 to 20 knots
through the day today...highest northern waters/Albemarle/Pamlico Sound
where gradient will be tightest. Seas build 6-10 feet north and 4-6
feet south tonight. Local Swan appeared too low for the northern
waters while the 00z wavewatch guidance appeared on track with
typical NE flow scenarios and thus was used for the near term seas
Long term /Mon through Thu/...
as of 3 am sun... strong north/NE winds all waters Monday into Tuesday with
high pressure nosing in from the north inland and low pressure off the CST.
Winds will be mainly 20 to 30 kts with seas average 8 to 11 feet north and 6
to 8 feet S. There could be close to gale force winds at times but
models differ a bit when strongest winds will occur so capped at 30
kts for now. The strong onshore winds and large seas will likely
lead to high surf north of hat through at least Tuesday. Wind will gradient
subside Tuesday night as low departs and the high to the north weakens and
shifts east...seas remain elevated...mainly 6 to 9 feet. Winds continue to
diminish and veer around to southeast/S Wednesday as the high shifts offshore
and weak cold front approaches. Seas will continue to subside but
likely hold in the Small Craft Advisory range of 5 to 8 feet outer waters. Weak cold
front will cross late Wednesday night or early Thursday with winds becoming
northwest 5 to 15 kts. Seas will gradient drop below 6 feet southern waters Wednesday night
and early Thursday northern and central waters.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Thursday for amz150-152-
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
Wednesday for amz156-158.