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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
328 am EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Synopsis...
low pressure will pass well south of the area through tonight. High
pressure will ridge into the region Wednesday through Friday. A
strong cold front will push through the area Friday night through
early Saturday morning. High pressure will build south of the
area Sunday and Monday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 150 am Wednesday...decoupled winds and clear skies have allowed
excellent radiational cooling to drop temperatures near dewpoint early
this morning resulting in patchy fog across inland locations. Will
continue with mention of fog for morning commute in severe weather potential statement and may
issue an Special Weather Statement later this morning if conditions persist/worsen. Any
fog/low stratus should mix out quickly after sunrise. A weak
backdoor cold front will approach from the north today but washout
as it drops across eastern NC. An upper low over the middle-Atlantic
will move east through southern New England today yielding west-northwest
flow aloft. Maximum temperatures will be a few degrees above climatology for
early October...with highs in the 81-83 f range inland to 73-76 f
across the obx.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/...
as of 150 am Wednesday...ridging aloft will build over the Carolinas
tonight while a weak surface ridge becomes centered over eastern
NC. Forecast soundings and persistence would suggest another round
of patchy fog as skies clear and winds decouple inland allowing
for good radiational cooling. Will monitor for persistence and may
add patchy/areas of fog after midnight with 4 am forecast package.
Lows tonight will be similar to this morning with inland sites
falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s and coastal sites in the
middle 60s.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
as of 325 am Wednesday...broad high pressure will control the
weather on Thursday with warm temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s. Strong cold front still on track to approach the area from
the west Friday. Latest runs of both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have slowed
the front just a bit...delaying the arrival of precipitation into
late Friday evening/night with showers and a few storms lingering
near the coast through about midday Saturday. Have made this
adjustment to slightly slow down the system and think Friday will
remain largely dry with likely probability of precipitation Friday night/early Saturday.
Instability will be limited with no severe potential expected and
just a few rumbles of thunder to accompany the front. Much cooler
and drier air will surge in behind the front with lows both Sunday
and Monday morning likely to drop into the upper 40s well inland
with 50s over most other areas with lower 60s along the Outer
Banks. A strong middle-level shortwave will dig into the mean trough
causing it to dive further south and lead to a few showers on
Tuesday as temperatures remain close to seasonal normals.

&&

Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 145 am Wednesday...fog has diminished visibilities across inland
taf sites to IFR/MVFR levels and should remain IFR/MVFR through
12-13z this morning. Winds decoupled earlier this evening with
clear skies allowing for excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures fell
quickly to near dewpoint...with dewpoint depressions of 0-3
degrees across area taf sites as of 0530z. Fog and stratus will
mix out after sunrise...likely between 12-13z this morning with
light NE/east winds today. Forecast soundings indicate scattered
clouds 2500-5000 feet possible this afternoon but with no impact
on aviation. Another round of reduced visibilities in fog and low
stratus will be possible again tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...expect VFR conditions Thursday and Friday
under the influence of high pressure. A strong front moves across
the region Friday night into Saturday and expect a threat of
showers and a few thunderstorms with reductions in ceiling and visibility
through about midday Saturday. Cool dry air overtakes the area
Saturday night through early next week with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 145 am Wednesday...latest surface and buoy data indicate north-northeast winds
10-15 knots with some gusts near 20 knots for the outer waters.
Seas range 2-4 feet for the northern waters and 2-3 feet south. Low
pressure several hundred miles off the Carolina coast will
continue to move out to sea this morning. A weak backdoor front
will approach from the north today but washout once over the
eastern NC waters...with no real impact on winds though seas could
build 3-5 feet for the outer central waters and the northern waters
due to longer north/north-northeast fetch.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Wednesday...northerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will
veer to S/SW ahead of strong cold front Friday evening and
night...before becoming northwest behind the front Saturday afternoon.
Seas may briefly reach 6 to 7 feet Friday night and Saturday just
ahead and behind the front. West/northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots are
likely to linger through most of the weekend...but the offshore
component of the wind should allow seas to subside to 3 to 5 feet
by Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$

Synopsis...dag
near term...dag
short term...dag
long term...ctc
aviation...ctc/dag
marine...ctc/dag

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