Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
813 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015
a weak stationary boundary will linger along the coast of the
southeastern United States tonight through Tuesday. Another
frontal system will affect the area late week into the weekend.
Near term /tonight/...
as of 8 PM Sunday...thunderstorms have formed along the Albemarle
Sound due to interaction between lingering weak frontal boundary
and inland moving sea breeze boundary. Have introduced a slight
chance pop for this area through the evening then taper back to 10
percent as loss of daytime heating limits destabilization. Weak
showers and thunderstorms continue well off the Cape Fear coast
and will move north towards the eastern NC coastal waters later
tonight. Not much chance for probability of precipitation/weather overnight though trended
increasing probability of precipitation with latest model guidance, delaying coastal
impacts a few hours to around 09z.
Dewpoints have already rebounded substantially this evening with
mostly SW/south-southwest synoptic flow taking over across eastern NC.
Although dewpoints have rebounded, expect enough boundary layer
mixing to inhibit fog development overnight. Rather than
completely remove from forecast, have minimized visibilities no less than
5 miles in patchy fog mainly for inland counties away from the
coast/sounds. Lows overnight will range around 70 well inland to
the middle/upper 70s near the coast.
Short term /Monday/...
as of 245 PM Sunday...a middle-level trough will dig south and
sharpen on Monday as surface low pressure forms on stalled frontal
boundary to our south. This will serve to draw deep axis of
moisture...currently over the Gulf Stream...back toward the coast.
This will lead to a tight gradient of moisture across our County Warning Area with
showers and embedded thunderstorms near the coast...but a good
amount of sunshine inland. Will have likely probability of precipitation along the
immediate coast tapering quickly to slight chance over the northern
third of the County Warning Area. Have followed suit with temperatures with
low/middle 80s coast with upper 80s/lower 90s over northern sections.
Overall instability is rather limited and will likely just see
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms starting middle to late
morning on Monday.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 240 PM sun...GFS/ECMWF continue to trend wetter along the
coast Monday night as moisture increases and a weak low lifts NE
along remnant frontal boundary. Deep inland looks mostly dry as
best moisture stays along the coast. Highs Monday lower 90s inland to
80s CST with 70s areas wide Monday night.
Main story for the Tuesday and Wednesday will be the heat as typical
summertime pattern re-develops with high pressure offshore and
strengthening trough inland. Heights build through middle week...with
low level thickness values and 850mb temperatures supporting highs in the
upper 80s/low 90s along the coast...and middle 90s/possibly a few
upper 90s inland. Forecast dewpoints still keep apparent temperatures below 105
but will be close to heat advisory. Isolated/widely scattered probability of precipitation Tuesday
and Wednesday with best chance CST early morning and inland during afternoon and
The next frontal system will approach the region late week with
increasing widespread precipitation chances. Upper trough develops to
the west with a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. Still
some uncertainty on exact timing and placement of the front...but
models have boundary stalling over the area or just north...with
an area of low pressure moving along it...finally pushing through
the area Sat. Will continue chance probability of precipitation through the period. Will
remain muggy however temperatures wont be quite as hot with mainly upper
80s and lower 90s. Looks like it starts to dry out sun with north/NE
flow and front moving off the coast.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through 00z Tuesday/...
as of 8 PM Sunday...predominantly VFR conditions expected through
the taf period. Boundary layer mixing and high clouds possibly
impacting radiational cooling will limit fog potential overnight
and have limited visibilities no less than 5 miles between 08-12z
tonight. Introduced vcsh for ewn/oaj Monday morning as a weak
boundary off the coast drifts northwest into the eastern portions
of eastern NC, then thunderstorms in the vicinity with broken cumulus around 5 kft by early
afternoon for ewn/oaj where a few thunderstorms may impact area
tafs. Kept vcsh for isolated/pgv mainly in the afternoon as a decent
gradient will exist from the coast to far inland taf sites, though
better breaks in clouds could lead to greater instability and thus
thunderstorms, though confidence in thunderstorms in the vicinity is too low to include in
tafs at this time for iso/pgv.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 240 PM sun...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Patchy fog/stratus possible each morning...though low level
SW flow will limit the threat. The next frontal system will impact
the region Friday with better precipitation coverage and possible sub-VFR
short term /through Monday/...
as of 810 PM Sunday...latest surface and buoy data indicate south-southwest
winds 10-20 knots with seas 2-4 feet. As the gradient tightens Monday
between high pressure well to the east and approaching surface
low, may see periods of 15 to 20 knot winds over the central and
southern waters and Pamlico Sound. Latest local Swan/nwps model
showing seas getting to 5 feet with a few areas of 6 feet well
offshore Monday afternoon, though will cap at 5 feet for now as
southwest flow above 25 knots is generally needed to yield 6 feet seas.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 240 PM sun...south-southwest winds expected at 10 to 20 kts through the
forecast period as trf continues inland with high pressure offshore.
Persistent gusty winds will keep seas elevated espcly over the
outer waters from hat S where will be mainly 5 to 6 feet Tuesday into
Wednesday. A weak boundary will drop into the northern waters Wednesday...and
could see temperature wind shift. The next frontal system will approach
the waters Thursday night. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the timing and placement of the front. Will maintain south-southwest
flow and seas 3-6ft through Friday...though boundary could move into
the waters and stall with veering winds.