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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
331 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

a trough of low pressure will remain just west of the coastal plain
through the end of the week. High pressure will build south along
The Spine of the appalachains this weekend. A trough of low
pressure will develop off the southeast coast early next week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...isolated showers will dissipate over the next
few hours. Low pressure over the offshore waters will continue to
move east overnight. Time sections and forecast soundings show
moist boundary layer and some patchy fog is forecast mainly west
of Highway 17. Lows will drop to the lower 70s with middle 70s on the
Outer Banks.


Short term /Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...trough of low pressure will be just west of
coastal plain. Forecast soundings rather dry so will not include
any mention of precipitation. Light northwest downsloping flow and lots
of sunshine will push highs into the lower to middle 90s most
locations with upper 80s immediate coast and Outer Banks.


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...
Thursday through Saturday... models continue to show midlevel
short wave moving into eastern NC from the Ohio Valley...leading
to isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms during peak heating.
Chances are even better Friday into Saturday for scattered
showers/thunderstorms as another weak middle disturbance and stronger
surface reflection of the backdoor cold front. Temperatures will be
above normal through Friday with highs into the low 90s inland and
upper 80s coast Thursday and Friday. Saturdays temperature will drop a
few degrees with the passage of the backdoor cold front.

Sunday through Tuesday...drier airmass will build in from the north
Sunday. This will bring drier weather...but have included isolated
afternoon showers/thunderstorms for sun through Tuesday. Models
are showing the development of an upper level low over the
southeast coast. If models continue these trends...precipitation chances
can increase for early next week. Temperatures will be near or
slightly below normal with highs ranging middle/upper 80s inland and
low 80s along the coast.


Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wednesday/
as of 330 PM Tuesday...afternoon cumulus field will dissipate this evening
leaving mainly clear skies overnight. Winds will become calm this
evening becoming light and variable Wednesday morning. High
boundary layer relative humidity will result in areas of MVFR fog after midnight
with IFR possible at deep inland sites pgv and isolated. Fog will burn
off quickly after sunrise.

Long term /Wed night through sun/
as of 330 PM Tuesday... mainly VFR conditions with isolated/scattered
convection each day. Can likely have brief patchy fog/stratus
each morning under light winds and moist boundary layer.


short term /through Wednesday/
as of 330 PM Tuesday...low pressure over the offshore waters will
continue moving east tonight...while a trough of low pressur lingers
just west of the coastal plain. Very loose pressure gradient over
the region will result in light and variable winds through the
short term. Waves will be 2-3 feet.

Long term /Wed night through sun/
as of 330 PM Tuesday...marine conditions will be benign across the
waters through Friday with a loose wind gradient. Winds expected
to be around 10 knots or less with seas 1 to 2 feet. A backdoor
cold front will move through the coastal waters Friday night into
Saturday...resulting in a wind surge of NE 15 to 20 knots. Seas
are expected to build 4 to 5 feet mainly for the northern/central
waters and 3 to 4 feet southern waters. If model trends
persist...chance of Small Craft Advisory is possible.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...



near term...hsa
short term...hsa

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