Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Medford or
202 am PDT Friday Aug 22 2014
Discussion...a strong marine push moves in this morning in
increased northwest flow behind the exiting dry cold front.
Stratus looks to spill over the Umpqua Divide in the Grants Pass
area...but is not expected in the Medford area this morning. As
the upper trough that ushered in the front and cooler
temperatures aloft slowly migrates east...it brings the cooler air
mass aloft with it. Heights slowly rise through the
weekend...combining with a deepening thermal trough along the
coast. With the deepening thermal trough along the coast and the
strengthening upper level ridge offshore flow is expected to to
spread across the east side by Saturday morning with northerly
winds increasing to gales in the southern waters south of Gold
Beach. This warming trend continues with decreasing relative humidity
recoveries...especially on the ridges through Sunday morning. The
thermal trough moves inland Sunday...bringing increased
northwesterly winds and the possibility of increased activity on
any fires still active...especially in the Cascades. This will
also bring a marine push into Monday morning that will cool temperatures
slightly...as well as stratus into the Umpqua basin Monday morning
that is not expected to spill over the Umpqua Divide.
Aviation...based on the 22/06z taf cycle...stratus with MVFR and
IFR ceilings is moving into the coast now and is expected to make its
way inland to the Umpqua basin tonight. Stratus will burn off to VFR
by middle morning at the coast...returning by the evening.
Additionally...smoke from nearby wildfires will reduce visibility
mainly in Siskiyou County. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will persist
for the next 24 hours. Sk
Marine...updated 200 am PDT Friday 22 Aug 2014...winds and seas will
begin to build later today as a thermal trough pattern
develops. This will result in a return of gusty north winds
and wind driven seas, which will last through at least Tuesday. The
strongest winds and steepest seas will be over the southern outer
waters south of Gold Beach during the afternoons and evenings each
day. There is some uncertainty regarding wind strength through the
weekend, but winds are expected to remain below gale strength. With
north winds continuing for several days, have opted to issue a
hazardous seas watch for the southern outer waters beginning
Saturday afternoon, but much will depend on the strength and the
extent of the affected area as to how steep the seas may become.
Confidence should increase over the next several forecast cycles. -Bpn
Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM
PDT Tuesday for pzz376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM this afternoon
to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for pzz376.