Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Medford or
452 am PDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
Discussion...low clouds have moved into all of Coos County and
have spread into western Douglas County. Short term models hint at
a few light showers or drizzle along the coast around sunrise this
morning. Not as certain as to how much cloud will spread into the
Rogue Valley given that as of 3am clouds have not filled into the
Roseburg area. Have opted to have scattered clouds into the Rogue
Valley this morning, but the sky grids may need to be updated
later this morning.
The upper level trough has now moved into our forecast area with
h850 temperature decreasing from yesterday. High temperatures
inland will be close to seasonal norms which would be a welcome
change for the recent string of hot temperatures. A low pressure
is expected to drop into central Washington state on Thursday.
This will help to reinforce seasonal temperatures through Friday but
the air mass will also be drier.
The latest GFS run continues with a warming trend returning next
weekend as a ridge offshore nudges toward the coast. This will
also lead to periods of thermal trough development along the coast
for gusty north winds across SW Oregon coastal mountains. Fb
Aviation...based on the 20/12z taf cycle...a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
are impacting the coast and inland into portions of the Umpqua
basin. Expect some stratus/stratocumulus to fill in this morning
along the Cascades/foothills and perhaps even here at kmfr, but
other than some terrain obscuration, most ceilings should be VFR.
Smoke will be thick in the lower valleys of western Siskiyou
County due to ongoing wildfires. The rest of the area will be VFR.
Models are indicating low clouds will be less widespread tonight,
but still expecting some IFR ceilings along the coast and interior
Coos County. Spilde
Marine...updated 5 am PDT Wednesday 20 Aug 2014...offshore high
pressure with a thermal trough inland will bring moderate north
winds and steep seas today through this evening...except for an
area of north gales and very steep seas offshore south of Cape
Ferrelo. Light to moderate north winds and seas will persist later
tonight into the weekend. Spilde
Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 11 am
this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for pzz356.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Thursday
Hazardous seas warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for pzz356.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 11 am this morning
to 11 PM PDT this evening for pzz350-370.
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 5 PM PDT Thursday for
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for pzz376.
Hazardous seas warning until 5 am PDT Thursday for pzz376.