Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Medford or
300 am PDT Sat may 25 2013
Discussion...the traditional start to the camping season starts
off wet with periods of sun. The first system moves into the
region this afternoon with a long fetch of moisture in the
southerly warm conveyor flow bringing decent moisture into the
region. This flow brings instability to the east side with a
slight chance of thunderstorms to the northern east side and
northern Cascades. Showers linger behind the front on Sunday with
a left exit region of a 70 knots jet moving through the region.
Sunday afternoon looks to see a needed break in the Holiday
weekend actions with the sun breaking out for MST of the afternoon
ahead of the next frontal system that moves in by early Monday
morning. This system is both much wetter...with moderate to strong
southerly flow looking to have a subtropical feed connection. In
addition to the good moisture flux into the region adding a middle
level moisture feed to the already strong moisture low level feed
into the region. And adding to the good low level moisture and low
level orographic lift in the strong warm conveyor flow...there is
a good upper level dynamic component as the left exit region of a
+100kt jet lingers over the area from Monday morning through
Tuesday morning. This prolonged period of good low to high level
lift coupling brings an unusually wet period in deep Omega to cap
off the Holiday weekend.
&&
Aviation...areas of MVFR ceilings along the coast could lower to IFR
this morning. Inland from the Cascades westward and Siskiyous
northward, expect MVFR ceilings to develop in the Umpqua valley and
also bank up against the mountains resulting in terrain
obscurations.
&&
Mfr watches/warnings/advisories...
or...none.
California...none.
Pacific coastal waters...none.
$$
Sbn/sbn/sbn
