Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ACROSS SE FLORIDA...AS THE PESKY HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY HAS SHIFTED EAST. THIS MEANS LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE
NORTH. A VERY NICE LATE MARCH DAY!

A RECENT ASCAT PASS CAUGHT THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND IS IN LINE
WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. C-MANS ON THE EAST COAST LOOK TO BE AS
WELL. LAKE OKEECHOBEE OBS SHOW STRONGER WINDS THOUGH...SO HAVE
INCREASED SPEEDS THERE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ 

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER FAR SE FL WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. N-NW WINDS AROUND 5 KT
WILL BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON EAST COAST AND N-NW AT
KAPF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
UNDER A CLEAR SKY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO 
UPPER FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
AND A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A 
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY 
SHIFT SOUTH THIS PERIOD AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SOUTH 
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL RESULT IN A RETURN 
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY VEER TO 
THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DUE 
TO THE LIGHTER WIND EXPECTED THE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW 
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 40S ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 
50S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL NOT REALLY SEE MANY CHANGES AS THE SURFACE 
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC. A 
SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL 
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MOST OF THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS 
NORTH FLORIDA LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA MOSTLY IN A DRY PATTERN BUT DEW 
POINTS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY 
LEVELS AND A CONTINUATION OF THE MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO VEER TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY TUESDAY INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TODAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  58  77  62 /   0  10  10   0 
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  63  78  66 /   0   0  10   0 
MIAMI            76  63  79  65 /   0   0  10   0 
NAPLES           78  55  76  60 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations