Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
729 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
middle/upper level high pressure will dominate through the period.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift slightly
eastward through the period...with southeast winds prevailing.
Winds will remain around 10 knots most taf sites overnight...and
then increase to around 15 knots by late morning. With the shallow
low level moisture...brief MVFR ceilings are possible. Fog and/or low
ceilings may briefly impact kapf Wednesday morning...but VFR
conditions are forecast at this time. Otherwise...VFR conditions
are forecast to prevail through the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015/
high pressure will remain dominant much of the week...bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will
stall over the region this weekend...bringing little in the way of
cool air but providing a chance of showers.
Short term (today through Thursday night)...
low-level ridge axis will reside over central Florida through the
short term...keeping easterly winds and warm temperatures in place
to the south. Maxima will exceed 80f and minima will range from
middle 60s to middle 70s...some 5-10 degrees above normal for early
March. Light wind...mostly clear sky...and nearly saturated
boundary layer will be favorable for fog production each late
night/early morning...mainly over western sections of South
Florida. By Thursday...a cold front will enter North Florida...but
have little/no impact on South Florida through the short term.
With persistent east-southeast winds...Atlantic beaches will be prone to rip
currents through the period.
Long term (friday through Monday night)...
Friday...a cold front will weaken as it enters the region. The
feature will then stall overhead into early next week. Deepest
moisture and best convergence will remain over central
Florida...but isolated to scattered showers are expected
here...especially over the interior during the afternoons. Little
in the way of cooler air will accompany this feature...and
overall...South Florida will remain in southwesterly middle- and
upper-level flow into next week.
mainly VFR conditions and moderate easterly winds expected to
prevail across all South Florida terminals this afternoon and
evening. Patchy fog is expected across the western and interior
parts of the peninsula early Wednesday morning with terminal kapf
possibly having brief periods of fog although VFR conditions
maintained in taf.
east and southeast winds 15 knots or less will prevail through
Thursday. A weak cold front will enter the waters
Friday...bringing some northerly winds briefly...before stalling
out overhead through the weekend. A few showers may accompany this
front. Northeasterly swell will increase Friday/Saturday in the
Atlantic...especially for waters off Palm Beach County.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 72 82 73 83 / 0 0 0 0
Miami 72 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 66 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0