Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
359 am EDT sun Sep 21 2014
infrared satellite imagery over the last few hours has shown a cluster of
thunderstorms across the Florida Straits that has pushed to the
north and continues to weaken. Remnant showers and isolated
thunderstorms are now beginning to move into the offshore Atlantic
and weaken further. Otherwise...a few light showers across the
Gulf waters are pushing to the northeast and should continue
through the morning with deep/moist southwest flow aloft.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be similar today as
occurred yesterday. An area of low pressure just offshore the Middle-
Atlantic States will continue to push further to the northeast.
The associated remnant frontal boundary should remain draped
across the Lake Okeechobee area. This combined with a deep
moisture axis over the area will provide a focus for showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the day. Cloud cover should again
keep convective development to a minimum.
South Florida should remain in a moisture rich environment through
midweek next week. Models are depicting an 500 mb shortwave surging
to the southeast across the deep south and becoming cutoff from
the mean flow. As it does...this will keep deep moisture pumping
into the Florida Peninsula with continued southwest flow. This
will keep an ongoing wet pattern for South Florida with likely
showers and thunderstorms each day.
Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease slightly for the latter
half of the week as upper ridging begins to take hold across the
western Atlantic. This will allow a more easterly flow pattern to
return across South Florida. This will also bring a return to a
more Gulf Breeze oriented setup with afternoon convection across
the interior and Gulf coastal areas. Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf)
then agree with sliding this ridge further west and over the
Florida Peninsula Friday and into next weekend.
low pressure is moving away from the area. This will help to
slightly reduce the threat for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. But by only a small margin. So, have carried a prob30
group for all taf sites through the afternoon hours. Otherwise,
VFR to MVFR conditions through the taf period. The exception being
IFR under any heavy showers and thunderstorms that develop.
winds should be generally light and variable through the day
across the area waters. A more easterly flow regime will then set
up and prevail through the upcoming week as high pressure returns
across the western Atlantic. Seas should remain at 3 feet or less.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 87 75 86 76 / 50 20 60 30
Fort Lauderdale 87 78 87 79 / 50 20 60 40
Miami 88 77 87 78 / 50 20 60 30
Naples 86 76 86 75 / 50 20 60 30