Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
218 PM EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Near term...(tonight through Saturday morning)

The initial concern will be through the evening and overnight period
tonight due to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall associated with a frontal boundary approaching
the area from the Gulf. The latest radar loop showed a fairly
pronounced squall line within 60-100 nm west of Naples. The latest
hrrr and WRF models have initialized fairly well with the current
trends and generally indicate a narrow squall line continuing
eastward and holding together as it moves ashore from Naples to
the lake region between 3z and 6z. The Storm Prediction Center
(spc) has included this area in a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms with the main threat being straight-line winds.
This line is then projected to continue eastward toward the East
Coast from 6z to 10z, then beginning to push off the East Coast by
or around daybreak Saturday morning. Although Storm Prediction Center has included
Naples to the lake in the slight risk of severe thunderstorms
through this time...the best chance for a severe thunderstorm or
Tornado Watch will remain north of our local area across
central/ncntral Florida. Flooding shouldn't be an issue due to the
progressive nature expected with this narrow line as it quickly
traverses the area from west to east.


Short term...(saturday-Sunday night)...

The frontal boundary is prognosticated to move east of the local area with
drier air and northwest flow filling in Saturday through Saturday night as
the upper low begins to lift out to the northeast. The latest
temperature guidance indicates conditions trending back to around
normal to slightly below normal inland late Saturday night through
daybreak Sunday morning in the wake of the front. Deep layer ridge
will begin to build eastward across the region with dry conditions
continuing through the end of the period.


Long term...(sunday-early next week)

The dry weather will continue over South Florida for most of next
week due to the high over the area early next week followed by a dry
cold front pushing through the area during the middle part of next




Line of showers and storms was moving into central Florida early
this afternoon. Model guidance is suggesting that this first line
will not make it into kapf...but that a second line of convection
may develop between 03-06z and then move eastward overnight. So this
is reflected in the thunderstorms in the vicinity timing in the tafs. For the rest of this
afternoon...southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
will continue for the East Coast taf sites. At kapf...winds will
begin to veer more to the south. Generally VFR conditions are
expected through the afternoon...but some pockets of MVFR ceilings at
2.5kft are possible. The front is forecast to push through the
region near the end of the taf period. Winds are forecast to
continue to veer on Saturday...with southwest to westerly winds 10-
15 knots.



A cold front will move through the marine area tonight into Saturday
morning with near advisory level northwest winds expected to fill in
behind it Saturday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible this evening into tonight across the Gulf waters...then
across the Atlantic waters late tonight through the morning hours
Saturday. Much drier conditions will be expected over the weekend as
high pressure builds eastward over the region. A moderate northerly
swell will be expected to fill in across the Atlantic waters Monday.
This swell combined with moderate to fresh northerly winds will lead
to advisory level conditions for the Atlantic waters through this
time early next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 74 84 63 81 / 50 30 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 74 87 67 82 / 50 40 0 0
Miami 74 86 68 83 / 50 40 0 0
Naples 71 84 61 82 / 60 20 10 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-



Short term...84/AK
long term....85/ag