Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
824 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014


Earlier in the evening the short term forecast was updated to
reflect the overall dissipation of showers/thunderstorms except
for the Naples area. But an outflow boundary from the Naples area
has generated a small but very active area of thunderstorms in
the near shore Gulf waters west of Bonita Beach with a forecast
update reflecting this. This activity is currently slowly
drifting westward. Once it dissipates only isolated activity is
expected across the Gulf waters during the remaining evening



Previous discussion... /issued 751 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014/

VFR is expected for the rest of the night with thunderstorms
finished. Much drier air in place Saturday and guidance strongly
suggests coverage will be isolated to scattered at best along the
East no thunderstorms in the vicinity will be added to the terminals for
tomorrow with this issuance. More moisture along the Gulf
Coast...thus kapf has a somewhat higher chance of convection

Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014/

Drier this weekend over South Florida...

Short term...
ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States will
shift southwest into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this
a trough of low pressure develops in the Atlantic waters. At the
same time...the tropical disturbance is forecast by the NHC to
move west northwest towards the Bahama Islands. This will allow
for the wind flow over South Florida to become more northeast and
also bring in drier air to South Florida from the northeast.
Therefore...the probability of precipitation this weekend will be below normal for this
time of year with 10 to 20 percent over the eastern areas of
South Florida increasing to only 30 to 40 percent over the West
Coast metropolitan areas of South Florida.

Temperatures this weekend will also be above average over South
Florida. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s over the metropolitan
areas and middle to upper 90s over the interior the heat
indices will be 100 to 105 over the metropolitan areas to 105 to 109 over
the interior areas. Lows will be around 80 over the metropolitan areas
and middle to upper 70s over the interior areas.

Long term...
the long range models are showing that the trough of low pressure
over the Middle Atlantic States will pick up the tropical disturbance
over the Bahamas this weekend and move it to the northeast. This
will allow for the high to build back into the Florida Peninsula
early next week along allow for the steering flow to become more
easterly bringing back some of the tropical moisture. So will
continue the scattered probability of precipitation over South Florida with the best
coverage over the western areas each day early next week.

northeast winds will remain at 10 knots or less over South
Florida waters this weekend before swinging to a easterly
direction early next week. This will keep the seas at 2 feet or
less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida this
weekend into early next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 93 78 93 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 80 93 81 93 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 77 94 77 94 / 20 30 10 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...21/km
long term....60/bd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations