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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
707 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015

Previous discussion... /issued 649 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015/

VFR conditions should prevail into Tuesday...although some visibility restrictions
cant completely be ruled out at kafp near sunrise. Ocsnl 4-6kft
ceilings through the period. Winds will be southeast 5-10 knots overnight...then
turn southwest by mid-morning...gusting over 20 kts during the
afternoon. A cold front will approach near the end of the
period...shifting winds to the west at 10-15 knots. Isolated /perhaps
scattered/ showers likely during middle/late afternoon in advance of the
front...but probs below 30 percent so did not place in forecast
at this time.

Previous discussion... /issued 230 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015/

Short term (tonight-Tuesday night)...
current surface analysis from visible satellite clearly shows a
frontal boundary from just off the north coast of Cuba stretching
northwest into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
animation suggests the western portion of the boundary is actually
beginning to lift back north as a warm front as low pressure
develops over Mexico. This low is in response to a closed middle level
circulation dropping south out of the Desert Southwest and will
be key player in our weather later this week. A ridge of high
pressure is noted stretching from its center east of the Carolinas
coast into the Atlantic resulting in a southeast low level wind
flow across South Florida with abundance of stratocumulus over the
Atlantic streaming onto the East Coast of the peninsula especially
from Broward County and northward into Palm Beach County.

The upper flow across South Florida is mostly zonal flow and this
will continue through Tuesday night. A middle level trough currently
over the Central Plains will lift east and northeast into early next
week being located over New England by Monday night. Its trailing
cold front will move into the Florida Panhandle tonight...central
Florida on Monday and across South Florida Monday night. Due to the
main upper low lifting well to our northeast and zonal flow
maintaining itself, the front will lack the push and stall over the
Florida Straits. Also, not much moisture return will occur with
forecast soundings showing precipitable water increasing from our current value of
0.62" from the morning sounding to a range of 1.2-1.4" by Monday
afternoon and Monday night. The surface flow ahead of the front will
be veering to the southwest which will lead to afternoon
temperatures in the lower 80s over much of the interior and East
Coast metropolitan areas which is 5-8 degrees above the average. So the
lower levels will be turning much more unstable but with a lack of
deep layer moisture only a few showers are expected. In addition,
there could be some patchy late night interior fog tonight with the
increased low level moisture but the sref guidance is only showing
20-30% probabilities of visibility lowering less than 3 miles so
chances do not look real favorable. A somewhat cooler and drier
airmass will move into South Florida on Monday night and Tuesday
with temperatures returning to near normal readings for early

Long term (wednesday-sunday)...
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have been very persistent in keeping the upper
flow progressive across North America extending into the late time
frame. The low pressure over Mexico mentioned earlier will phase
with another northern stream trough at middle week inducing surface
low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico which now the short
term NAM is even eluding to this solution. The uncertainty
continues to lie in the where and when of the track of this
system. The European model (ecmwf) continues to develop the system farther to the
south and much faster with the NAM the farthest to the north over
the lower Mississippi Valley by 00z Wednesday evening. At any
rate, it would appear there will be a chance for showers on
Thursday across South Florida and possibly into early Friday with
drier and cooler air arriving by late Friday and continuing into
next weekend.

wind and seas will continue to subside tonight into Monday as the
gradient flow slackens. Wind will veer to the southwest on Monday
as a cold front approaches to local waters and then shift to the
northwest behind the front as it moves through the marine areas
Monday evening. The wind will veer to an easterly direction at
middle-week as the high shifts east and the become southwest ahead of
another cold front late in the week. Low pressure developing this
week in the Gulf of Mexico will lift to the northeast into the
Atlantic late in the week and next weekend. Depending on the
strength of the low pressure system, there could be some
significant northeast swells beginning to affect the Atlantic
waters by the weekend. This will be monitored over the next
several days as the models become more in agreement to the systems


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 68 82 60 74 / 10 20 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 68 81 60 73 / 10 20 10 10
Miami 68 82 61 75 / 10 20 10 10
Naples 62 78 53 73 / 0 20 10 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk until 7 am EST Monday for flz168-172-173.



Short term...23/sk
long term....84/AK

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