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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
359 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Marine...

With a stationary boundary remaining across central or northern
Florida through the week, and surface high strengthening along the
entire eastern Seaboard, easterly winds will deepen and become
stronger as the pressure gradient tightens. This may lead to 20
knots winds for a time through the offshore Atlantic zones tomorrow
night into part of Wednesday. Showers and storms will be scattered
to numerous with the easterly flow regime even at night. An upper
high moving into Florida this weekend may allow the winds to
subside with less coverage of storms. Expect waves of 2-4 feet
through the Atlantic waters, closer to 4 feet as the winds become
stronger tomorrow night and Wednesday, with wind speeds 15-20 kts
during this time frame.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 337 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

Discussion...

Multiple middle level shrtwvs, will continue riding northeast, just
south of a dwindling boundary across central Florida. The northern
half of the forecast area is closest to the track of these
disturbances/instability/Theta-E gradient between the much drier
air across northern Florida, and the deep tropical moisture
across much of the forecast area. The sea breeze along the East
Coast will keep the greatest instability and the more numerous
storms inland, however convergence will still exist close enough
to the coast with south-southwest winds just off the surface, such that
showers can still be expected this afternoon and tonight. Can't
rule out a stronger storm inland and also Naples area, already had
a storm producing 50kts from pbi tdwr in extreme north central
Palm Beach earlier today.

As high pressure strengthens and moves into the middle Atlantic
and New England, easterly winds will become deeper and stronger
through the week, beginning tomorrow. However, the steering flow
aloft will still generally be from the south-southwest still Tuesday, so
storms may move and evolve in a similar fashion, perhaps a little
closer to the coast than today. Also with the easterly flow
tonight and the next several nights, there will be more showers
and storms around during the evening and overnight hours than
usual along the East Coast. In conclusion, the wet pattern will
continue this week with a weak boundary remaining through north or
central Florida, and although some slightly drier air arrives in
the middle levels late week, model precipitable waters are still close to or above
2 inches. Easterly winds will only become deeper and stronger as
an upper high remains parked over the western Atlantic into
Thursday. Eventually the subsidence with thus upper high may
finally deliver a respite to this wet pattern this weekend.

Previous discussion... /issued 151 PM EDT Monday Sep 22 2014/

Aviation...

So far this afternoon the shower/thunderstorm activity is mainly
across the interior portions of the eastern South Florida
peninsula. All terminals except for kapf assigned thunderstorms in the vicinity at 18z. For
terminal kapf...the West Coast sea breeze may not materialize as
convection across the eastern Gulf continues to maintain
cloudiness across the western peninsula and Gulf waters and vcsh
assigned for this afternoon and evening. With any
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening brief periods of
IFR conditions may be possible.

60

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 76 86 76 86 / 50 70 60 50
Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 40 60 40 50
Miami 77 86 77 86 / 30 60 40 50
Naples 75 87 74 86 / 40 60 40 60

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...21/km
long term....10/cd

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