Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
817 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight period with
light southeast winds continuing. Increasing rain chances will be
expected through the day Thursday as moisture lifts north into the
area. Similar to today...the Gulf Coast sea breeze will be
expected to develop through the early/middle afternoon hours along
the Gulf Coast areas (site apf) tomorrow. This combined with the
increasing moisture will support the afternoon showers and storms
focusing across the interior areas into the evening hours before
Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
quiet day continues across South Florida. The only radar returns
this afternoon were from a large wildfire across Cape Sable. A few
showers are possible this afternoon...but otherwise partly cloudy
skies and warm conditions will continue.
Cristobal will accelerate off to the north and northeast tonight and
Thursday in between Bermuda and the outerbanks of North Carolina
over the Atlantic waters. A week surface trough stretching from the
tail end of Cristobal remained over the Florida Straits...but this
boundary will lift northward tonight as Cristobal moves off to the
northeast. In addition...the deep layered ridge to the southeast of
Cristobal will build west and northwest over the western Atlantic
and into the southeast states. A few showers may move into the
southern and eastern portions of the region late tonight into
Thursday morning as moisture increases.
Precipitable waters are forecast to increase back to around normal on
Thursday...which will bring higher rain chances to the region.
However...dry and warm air will remain aloft...which will keep
storms in check. The flow will shift to the south as the boundary
lifts northward. So best rain chances will be across the interior as
storms move off to the north and northwest.
Typical summertime convection is then forecast for Friday...with
streamer showers and East Coast sea breeze convection through early
afternoon and interior and Gulf Coast showers and storms in the middle
afternoon through early evening hours.
Models are showing some drier and Saharan dust possibly moving into
the region Friday night and Saturday...with the European model (ecmwf) bringing in
drier air to the region. So overall rain chances on Saturday will be
Deep easterly flow will continue Sunday through early next week with
near normal to normal moisture. A TUTT low may move towards the
region by the middle of the week...which could bring colder
temperatures aloft and some stronger storms.
High temperatures will be near normal through the period...and lows
will be a couple degrees above normal with temperatures in the 70s to low
latest visible satellite shows a scattered cumulus field across South Florida.
Dry air mass will prevail through the evening with VFR conditions
expected. Guidance keeps delaying the onset of a Gulf Breeze at
kapf. Not very confident that it will develop at all but still
prevailed a weak Gulf Breeze after 21z. Models still depict deep
moisture return tomorrow and better coverage of shras/tsras.
However...most of should remain across the interior. Placed vcsh in
at kmia...ktmb...and kapf for now.
small northeast swell will continue to affect the waters off of
Palm Beach and Broward counties this afternoon and evening. Seas
around 7 feet this afternoon east of Palm Beach County will
subside below 6 feet tonight. High pressure will build north of
the local waters Thursday through the weekend...with light to
moderate east to southeast flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 79 92 80 91 / 10 40 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 81 92 81 91 / 20 40 20 40
Miami 80 91 80 91 / 20 40 20 40
Naples 78 91 78 92 / 10 50 20 50
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz650-670.