Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
742 am EDT Friday Mar 27 2015
strong cold front to cross the region through the period. Storms
ongoing near kpbi and additional development near the terminal
could create brief MVFR ceilings with any ts. Activity should stay
north of other East Coast terminals, as outflow from convection
further west which sparked this mornings storm, is expected to
stay away. However, as the front nears and midlevel lapse rates
increase, storms will become more probable further south, but
still just handled with thunderstorms in the vicinity for now. Some 30kt wind gusts are
possible with the actual passage of the front this evening.
Storms could reduce ceiling to MVFR later this afternoon and evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 406 am EDT Friday Mar 27 2015/
.Resent with Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters...
Short term (today-sunday)...
a highly amplified flow aloft will continue to evolve over the
U.S. With a large trough across the eastern half. The associated
cold front with this trough is currently over the far western
portion of the Florida Panhandle and as the trough axis continues
to deepen, the front will proceed southeast across the peninsula
this afternoon and evening. A band of showers are currently well
ahead of the front over central Florida with scattered
thunderstorms also over the Gulf waters. As significant height
falls occur with the deepening trough, substantial destabilization
will be under way especially by this afternoon for scattered
thunderstorm development spreading eastward across the Mainland.
Boundary layer flow will be unidirectional ahead of the front
which will limit and low level circulation but there could be some
stronger storms given favorable deep layer shear. Thus, there
could be some isolated strong storms which could approach
producing near severe wind gusts this afternoon with some of this
activity lingering into the early evening hours especially near
the southeast coast. The timing appears that the greatest threat
for thunder will be over the Lake Okeechobee region beginning
around 16-17z and the East Coast metropolitan region near 20z through
the early evening. As the trough deepens and shifts east, the cold
front will clear the southeast coast late tonight with surface
high pressure building behind the front. A much drier and cooler
airmass with then filter down the peninsula with cold air
advection continuing through Sunday. Minimum temperatures tonight
into early Saturday morning will be in the 50s except lower to middle
60s along the East Coast with temperatures early Sunday morning in
the upper 40s and 50s with near 60 along the southeast coast. This
will be substantially cooler from what has been experienced over
the past few weeks and around 10 degrees below the averages for
Long term (monday-thursday)...
a gradual warming trend will ensue next week as the upper flow
becomes zonal with the trough shifting to the east and the surface
flow will return to the east as the ridge shifts east into the
Atlantic by Tuesday. Temperatures will return to near normal by
Tuesday and above normal again by late in the week.
deteriorating marine conditions will take place today through the
weekend as the southwest wind increase to near 20 knots over the
Atlantic waters and then shifts to the north behind the front.
The wind will begin to diminish late in the weekend with subsiding
seas on Sunday into next week as the flow returns to the east.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 88 61 73 54 / 70 30 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 87 63 74 59 / 50 30 10 0
Miami 88 64 77 60 / 50 30 10 0
Naples 83 63 74 54 / 70 30 10 0
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for amz650-651-670-671.