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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
826 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Update...
morning soundings confirm the presence of very dry air in the wake
of the cold front that moved through South Florida during the
pre-dawn hours. This along with modest cold air advection should
keep high temperatures in the 60s today. The dry air will result
in plummeting dew points into the lower 30s by midday, yielding
relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. As
indicated in the earlier discussion, fire danger not a big concern
despite the low humidity due to light winds and modest energy
release component values. Winds will be in the 15 miles per hour range over
land, and 15-20 knots over the local waters. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the Atlantic due to high seas in the Gulf
Stream.

59/Molleda

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 638 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/

Aviation...

Stable weather and VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
forecast period. For the East Coast terminals...northwesterly
winds expected to prevail through the afternoon hours and slowly
transitioning to more northerly flow this evening. For terminal
kapf...north northeasterly winds today expected to transition to
northwesterly around 22z then to north northeasterly early
Thursday morning.

60

Previous discussion... /issued 258 am EST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/

Dry weather rest of the week before a few showers possible
East Coast metropolitan areas this weekend...

Short term...
a cold front over the Lake Okeechobee region early this morning will
continue to move southward through the area and into the Florida
Keys by this afternoon. This front will reinforce the dry and cooler
weather over South Florida for today and tonight. Highs today
will only warm up into the middle to upper 60s...and lows tonight
will fall down into the 40s, except lower to middle 50s East Coast
metropolitan areas.

High pressure will then build into the southeastern United States
for Thursday before moving into the western Atlantic waters on
Friday. This will allow for another mostly dry cold front to move
south and through South Florida Friday night. The only area that
could see some rainfall from this front will be over the Atlantic
waters.

Another high pressure will then build into the southeastern United
States for this weekend from the central United States. This will
allow for an breezy easterly wind flow to set up over South
Florida this weekend. This in turn will allow for isolated showers
to develop over the Atlantic waters and move into the East Coast
metropolitan areas. Therefore...a slight chance of showers will remain in
the forecast for the East Coast metropolitan areas for this weekend.

Long term...
the high over the southeastern United States will move east early
next week as low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico. The
low should move east northeast into the southeastern United
States or northern Florida by middle of next week. This will allow
for the steering flow to become more southerly over South Florida
for early to middle of next week bringing in some moisture to the
area. Therefore...a chance of showers will return to South Florida
for early to middle of next week with even a slight chance of
storms for the middle of next week.

Marine...
westerly winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour early this morning over South
Florida waters will become northwest and decrease to around 15 miles per hour
by this afternoon. The winds will then swing to a easterly
direction by Thursday and speeds will reduce to less than 15 miles per hour.
The winds will then retrograde back to a northerly direction
tonight into Friday with speeds around 10 knots...before swinging
to an easterly direction and increasing to at least breezy
conditions this weekend.

This will allow for the seas in the Gulf Stream waters of South
Florida to remain around 7 feet today before slowly decreasing to
5 feet or less by Friday. The Gulf Stream seas of South Florida
will then remain 5 feet or less Friday night before building back
to 7 feet by Saturday night. The seas in the Gulf waters should
remain at 6 feet or less today into this weekend. Therefore...a
scec will remain in place for most of South Florida waters
today...except for a Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters due to the Gulf
Stream seas.

Fire weather...
the very dry air over South Florida today will lead to the
relative humidity falling into the 20s over most of South Florida.
However...the energy release component (erc) will remain in the
lower to middle 20s and the 20 foot winds will remain below 15 miles per hour
for today. The relative humidity on Thursday will be in the upper
30s to middle 40s before increasing further into the 50s for this
weekend over South Florida. Therefore...no fire weather headlines
are expected over South Florida for today or into this weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 67 52 72 54 / 0 0 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 68 54 73 57 / 0 0 10 10
Miami 69 55 74 58 / 0 0 10 10
Naples 65 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for amz650-651-
670-671.

GM...none.
&&

$$

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