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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
145 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016

Aviation...
a weak, dry cold front is moving across South Florida this
afternoon. It is mainly marked by a clearing line, currently near
Lake Okeechobee. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through the
taf period, with wind being the main concern, and even then, not
significant. The wind is expected to become more northeast to east
as high pressure builds in tonight, behind the front. Tomorrow,
the wind will conitinue with a geneerally easterly direction, and
increase to 10-15 kts, with some gusts possible, mainly in the
late morning and afternoon. So, basically VFR through the taf
period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1012 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016/

Update...
a weak cold front continues to approach South Florida from the
north. This front is mainly noticeable by a clearing line over
the coastal waters. Otherwise, it will be dry, with little change
in temperatures. Very few changes to the forecast this morning,
with only a few tweaks to account for current conditions.

Previous discussion... /issued 358 am EST Sat Feb 13 2016/

Seasonable weather through Sunday, then increasing moisture on
Monday..

Discussion...high pressure over South Florida will lose its grip
over the area today as a dry cold front moves down the state,
reaching the southern peninsula this afternoon and south of the
area by tonight. This cold front is associated with the frigid,
Arctic air mass invading most of the eastern third of the country,
but its effects on South Florida will be slight as the brunt of
the cold air will remain well north of the state. Light winds this
morning will increase this afternoon as the front passes.
Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday...mostly in the
middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Trajectory of the high pressure
area north of the front is such that it will cause winds to become
NE rather quickly late tonight and mitigate any cold air
advection. Nevertheless, enough cool air comes down for lows in
the middle to upper 40s over the western half of the peninsula, with
the eastern half in the 50s closer to the modifying effects of the
Atlantic.

Sunday will be breezy as winds pick up out of the northeast, causing
a fair amount of cold-air stratocumulus to move onshore over the
eastern half. A few showers not out of the question with these
clouds, but for now only have a 10 pop along the East Coast. Cold
air advection above the surface will be fairly impressive on Sunday
with 850 mb temperatures about 5-10 degrees f cooler than today.
This means that although the northeast winds off the Atlantic will
modify any surface cold air advection, it will still be cooler than
today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With a breeze and
not as much sunshine as the past few days, it will feel a little
on the cool side.

Winds will continue veering to the east Sunday night, then southeast
on Monday as the next middle/upper shortwave approaches from the northwest.
Moisture return will be modest on Monday, but enough for a few
showers. Highest moisture will be Monday night and early Tuesday as
the shortwave moves through Florida. Models have trended weaker with
this shortwave compared to the previous few model runs, with the
European model (ecmwf) the deeper of the models but less amplified than it showed
yesterday. Therefore, rain chances will be kept at 40/50 percent as
overall forcing and dynamics not looking too impressive. Will keep
in the slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday night which was
introduced yesterday, but if models continue to trend weaker with
the system. I wouldn't expect much in the way of thunderstorms. The
associated front lags behind the middle/upper shortwave which will
keep a low chance of rain much of the day of Tuesday with
temperatures reaching the warmest values of the upcoming week...in
the upper 70s. Front moves through Tuesday night but will be quite
weak as far as delivering significantly cooler air. Temperatures
will actually be very close to seasonal normals for the middle to
latter part of next week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail
during the latter part of this forecast cycle with northeast winds
prevailing.

Marine...north winds will increase late today and cause seas to
build to 5 to 6 feet tonight as the front moves through and south
of the area. Winds will become northeast tonight and Sunday and
continue to gradually increase, reaching near 20 knots by Sunday
night. Winds will become southeast on Monday and remain around 20
knots. For now have a caution statement for the Atlantic waters,
but will probably need a Small Craft Advisory by Sunday night due
to winds around 20 knots. Winds become south to southwest and
decrease Monday night and early Tuesday ahead of another front.
This next front will move through the area late Tuesday, however
no significant increase in winds or seas is anticipated through
Wednesday.

Fire weather...relative humidity values will continue to slowly
moderate today, with lowest values in the 35 to 40 percent range
over the western areas. Northeast winds on Sunday will lead to
further recovery of humidity values, with dispersion becoming good
to very good as winds increase.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 56 69 62 75 / 0 10 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 58 70 64 75 / 0 10 20 30
Miami 59 71 64 76 / 0 10 20 30
Naples 50 73 57 79 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...13/si
long term....59/rm
aviation...13/si

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