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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
328 am EDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

..typical afternoon scattered thunderstorms next few days...
..First cold front of fall season arrives Saturday night...

Discussion...surface ridge will remain over the Florida Straits
through Friday, maintaining a westerly wind flow. This will focus
scattered thunderstorms over the interior and East Coast metropolitan as
an Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon. Some drier
air in the middle levels is expected to keep convection scattered
this afternoon as well as on Friday. The main impacts from the
thunderstorms will be lightning strikes and brief heavy rains.

GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show an amplified longwave trough
across the eastern U.S. This weekend, sending the first cold front
of the season across South Florida Saturday night. Scattered
convection is expected ahead of the front, but forcing will be to
the north so only Ordinary storms are only expected. The big story
will be The Drop in dewpoints and a slight lowering of
temperatures to make a very noticeable change in airmass across
South Florida after the long steamy times since may. Guidance
temperatures/probability of precipitation were not significantly changed from this time
yesterday so no appreciable changes are noted in the extended
forecast. Drying behind the front will occur sun-Mon, but moisture
looks to return on a return flow by Tuesday with increasing humidity
and a return to scattered thunderstorms then. /Gregoria


Marine...light winds and low seas will continue but winds will
pick up in association with the first cold front of the fall
season expected to move across the local waters Saturday night. As
winds turn north then NE, seas will build especially off the Palm
Beach coast but nwps currently keeps seas below hazardous
levels, or 7 feet. /Gregoria


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 90 74 89 76 / 40 20 40 20
Fort Lauderdale 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
Miami 91 77 90 78 / 50 20 50 20
Naples 90 75 90 76 / 20 10 20 20


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


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