Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
751 am EDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
high pressure remains to the east, keeping an east southeast flow
across the area. The sea breezes are expected to develop early
this afternoon, affecting the wind direction. An upper level
trough remains over North Florida, keeping some additional
instability over the Florida Peninsula today. Expect mainly VFR
conditions, with IFR possible under heavy showers and
thunderstorms, mainly expected in the interior today. However, it
is possible for some formation near mainly the Southeast Florida
airports this afternoon. There is potential that they can impact
any of those airports this afternoon. Have added thunderstorms in the vicinity to reflect
Previous discussion... /issued 325 am EDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015/
.Highest probability of precipitation shifting to the western areas for rest of this
week into the Fourth of July weekend...
a trough of low pressure will continue to move east into the
Atlantic waters from the eastern United States today...as high
pressure over the Florida Straits moves northward into South
Florida. This will allow for both the east and West Coast sea
breezes to develop and push inland today over South Florida
focusing the highest probability of precipitation over the interior areas. However...there
could still be some showers and even a few thunderstorms over the
metropolitan areas as the sea breezes push inland along both coast.
The high will continue to move northward into central Florida on
Wednesday before continuing to move north into northern Florida by
end of the week. This will allow for the easterly wind flow to set
up over South Florida and focus the showers and thunderstorms over
the interior and West Coast areas of South Florida each day.
the high will remain nearly stationary over northern Florida this
Fourth of July weekend into early next week keeping the easterly
wind flow in place over South Florida. The latest long range
models are also showing some Saharan dust working into South
Florida from the eastern Caribbean Sea late this Fourth of July
weekend. Therefore...the highest probability of precipitation will continue over the
interior and West Coast metropolitan areas of South Florida with a little
less coverage late this Fourth of July weekend.
the winds will be from the south southeast at 10 knots or less
over South Florida waters today into Thursday before becoming more
southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots for this four of July
weekend. The seas will remain at 2 feet or less today into late this
week over both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. The Atlantic seas
could increase to 2 to 3 feet this Fourth of July weekend.
Therefore...boating conditions looks good through the Fourth of
July weekend outside of any showers or thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 77 91 78 / 30 20 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 20 10
Miami 92 78 90 79 / 30 10 20 10
Naples 93 77 93 77 / 20 10 30 10