Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
141 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014
southeast winds around 10 kts will prevail early this
morning...but increase to 15-20 kts after sunrise. During the
afternoon...gusts in excess of 25 kts are possible. VFR conditions
prevail into Monday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 859 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014/
high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic waters
tonight keeping the wind flow from the southeast direction.
However...the winds will be light and variable over the interior
areas tonight under mostly clear skies. This will allow for some
patchy fog to develop over the interior areas late tonight into
early Sunday morning. So have added patchy fog for the interior
areas in the updated zones for late tonight.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014/
Discussion... ridge of high pressure continues in control of the
weather across South Florida through the weekend. Despite gradual
moisture return starting on Sunday it will remain dry and stable
for the remainder of the weekend with temperatures above normal
The main story of this forecast is the potential weather system
developing across the Gulf early in the week. Upper level trough
and associated short wave currently across the southern rockies is
forecast to dig into the northern Gulf by Monday with low pressure
system developing across the southeast. As the upper level system
moves into the Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday the 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf)
combo are slower than past few days and unlike previous cycle
closer in timing with trailing cold front moving across the area
during the day on Tuesday with potential pre frontal squall line
moving across the region as early as overnight Monday. Ahead of
the system moisture and associated day time heating will be
sufficient that diurnal convection cannot be ruled late Monday
afternoon across the Mainland.
Both global models show the area under the influence of a 100 knots
plus upper level jet as the front moves across South Florida.
Combo of NAM/GFS/ECMWF show best shear/helicity profiles
remaining north of the area. All in all, the potential for some
strong storms and may be one or two severe storms is there but it
looks marginal at this time and rather uncertain. Given trend in
the models over last several cycles timing remains also quite
uncertain. What is clear is rain chances will be increasing late
Monday and could linger through late Tuesday. Our pop forecast
follows closely a consensus of the dynamical models and places the
window where the potential weather and associated impacts could
occur anytime from late Monday through Tuesday evening.
Should the threat of strong storms materiaze main concern at this
time is damamging winds.
For the latter part of the week upper level flow becomes rather
zonal with conditions drying out and temperatures remaining around
or above normal.
winds across the South Florida coastal waters are forecast to
pick up from the south around 15 to 20 kts ahead of the cold front
early in the week and then subside by the middle of the week as
the front moves across the area and weakens. Therefore, seas are
forecast to remain below 6-7 feet through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 82 73 85 70 / 10 10 40 50
Fort Lauderdale 82 76 85 75 / 10 10 30 50
Miami 83 74 85 72 / 10 10 30 50
Naples 86 71 84 71 / 10 10 50 50