Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
429 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Discussion...
high pressure over the Ohio Valley and into the southeast will
push offshore the North Carolina coast this afternoon and evening.
The low level flow will then begin to veer more to the southeast
today and south tonight...bringing in increase in low level
moisture. A shortwave over the eastern Gulf is forecast to push
across central Florida this afternoon and evening. Activity looks
to be confined mostly north of the lake along sea breeze
boundaries this afternoon. The hireswrf models agree with this
scenario...so only kept a silent 10 pop for Glades County this
afternoon. Otherwise...it will be another warm and mostly sunny
day...with highs in the 80s.

An area of low pressure across the middle of the country today
will push into the northeast by Friday afternoon...and a weak cold
front will push into the southeast states. The tail end of the
front is forecast to push off the southeast states and into the
western Atlantic on Saturday. Low level moisture and winds will
begin to increase slightly tonight over the Atlantic waters and
towards the East Coast. So a few streamer showers are possible
for the East Coast late tonight and on Friday.

Drier air will then move in from the west on Saturday...with dry
and warm conditions expected. Temperatures are forecast to be in
the middle/upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. Sea breeze
collisions on Sunday may lead to a very isolated shower or storm
on Sunday across the interior as easterly flow increases.
However...with increasing heights from upper level ridging...rain
chances are too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

The upper level ridge from South Florida into the Great Lakes on
Sunday will shift east of the region on Monday as a large cutoff
low develops over the Central Plains. Low level flow will shift to
the southeast and south early next week. A few showers and storms
are possible across the interior Monday and Tuesday afternoon
along the sea breeze boundaries and collisions. A cold front is
forecast to move into the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday...and
the flow will veer to the southwest. The front will take its time
moving into Florida...and the models do not agree on the timing.
However...with sufficient low level moisture...isolated showers
and storms will be possible on Wednesday. Temperatures are
forecast to remain near normal to above normal each day through
the period.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Easterly flow will
prevail at all terminals today and weakening in the evening
except for kapf. At this terminal...winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze develops at around 16z and persists through the
evening hours.

&&

Marine...
high pressure north of the region will keep light winds and
diminishing seas through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Southeasterly winds will increase toward the beginning of next
week as the high moves east.

&&

Fire weather...

The relative humidity is forecast to remain slightly above threshold between now
and the weekend for the area west of the Lake. A gradual increase
in relative humidity is forecast between the weekend and the end of the forecast
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 85 70 87 69 / 0 10 20 0
Fort Lauderdale 85 73 87 72 / 0 10 20 10
Miami 86 72 88 72 / 0 10 20 10
Naples 84 67 84 67 / 0 0 10 0

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...84/AK
long term....84/AK
aviation...17/era