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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME MID CLDS AT KPBI BUT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT NEAR THE LAKE REGION. BKN 25KFT CLDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
MOST SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE SE. GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KAPF/KTMB BUT NOTHING LESS THAN 4SM.
PERSISTENT CANOPY OF MID HIGH CLDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR SEA BREEZE TIME
AND DURATION AS YESTERDAY, DEVELOPING LATE DAY AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/ 

UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD 
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND 
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL 
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED 
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...  

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT 
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS WHAT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10 
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10 
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM

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