Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
722 PM EST sun Mar 1 2015
the semi-stalled front has drifted well to the north and high
pressure is building to the north. This will keep a generally
easterly flow across South Florida through the night. The flow
will try to turn slightly to the northeast tomorrow. Also, some
drier air is expected to move over the area by tomorrow. This
should result is mostly VFR conditions through the taf period,
although some brief low ceilings could move across causing MVFR to IFR
conditions. These are not shown in the tafs at this time as there
is too much uncertainty.
Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM EST sun Mar 1 2015/
East Coast sea breeze has pushed inland...with isolated to
scattered showers across the western portions of Palm
Beach...Broward...and Miami-Dade counties and towards the Gulf
Coast. A weak Gulf Coast sea breeze has also developed...and a few
storms could fire up this afternoon. A streamer was also noted off
Grand Bahama...and a line of light showers were moving into the
local Atlantic waters. It is possible this reaches the East
Coast near West Palm Beach...but otherwise the East Coast will
remain dry. It will be warm through the afternoon with temperatures in
the low 80s.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to push
northeast tonight...and an area of low pressure will move off the
northeast Continental U.S.. another strong high pressure will then move into
the Central Plains. The inverted trough that was along our coast
yesterday will merge with a backdoor front off the East Coast of
North Florida...and winds will back to the northeast. Patchy to
areas of fog is possible across the interior and Gulf Coast
850mb high pressure will build over central Florida on
Monday...and drier air will work its way into the region with
precipitable waters 1-1.2 inches. Temperatures will be warm...with highs in the
low to middle 80s.
Middle/upper level heights will then build across South Florida
through the middle of the week as high pressure builds northeast
from the Yucatan. Highs in the low/middle 80s and lows in the 60s to
low 70s will continue.
An upper trough is forecast to push across the Ohio Valley and
into the southeast on Thursday...and then flatten out and lift
northeastward over the strong ridge across the region. A cold
front is then forecast to push southward into north/central
Florida. The GFS still wants to stall the front across South
Florida as it is more aggressive breaking down the upper ridge.
The European model (ecmwf) is more reasonable with the front stalling across
north/central Florida. So mainly dry and warm conditions are
forecast through the end of the week.
east-southeast wind flow across South Florida with drier air compared to 24
hours ago. Pattern today similar to what we see in the Summer,
with sea breeze circulations playing a major role in cloud
cover/precipitation. Gulf sea breeze developing by middle afternoon
will lead to scattered rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms and rain near the West
Coast. Went with vcsh for kapf as coverage of thunderstorms and rain not enough to
warrant mention in taf at this time. The East Coast will remain
mostly dry with any prolonged ceilings above 3000 feet. Possible
exception to this at kpbi where a streamer from Grand Bahama
Island may bring a few showers to that area later this afternoon.
Overall pattern persists through Monday. Some occasional light fog
at kapf 10z-13z, otherwise fair and VFR. /Molleda
seas up to 7 feet through tonight over the Gulf Stream east of
Palm Beach County. Winds and seas will then continue to diminish
through Monday. High pressure will be in control of the weather
through the middle of the week with east to southeast winds 10-15
knots and seas generally 4 feet or less.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 71 81 71 82 / 10 10 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 72 81 72 79 / 10 0 0 10
Miami 72 83 71 82 / 10 10 0 10
Naples 65 83 65 85 / 20 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk through Monday morning for flz168-172-173.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for amz650-670.