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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
926 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

a short wave that was moving through the Florida Peninsula
overnight is located just of the Florida Peninsula this morning.
The short wave will continue to move east a middle to
upper level trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
moves northeast across North Florida this afternoon. This will
allow for both the east and West Coast sea breezes to develop this
morning and push into the interior areas by this
the steering flow will be light from the southerly direction.

The atmosphere over South Florida this morning has become stable
behind the passage of the short wave. However...the atmosphere
should become unstable again this afternoon due to the skies
clearing up this morning allowing for heating to occur and the middle
to upper level short wave passaging by to the north.
Therefore...the probability of precipitation will be lowered this morning over South
Florida...but will keep scattered to numerous probability of precipitation in the forecast
for the afternoon hours over South Florida. The primary impacts
from the storms today will be mainly heavy rainfall due to the
slow movement.

The showers and thunderstorms should end from west to east this
evening over South the middle to upper level trough of
low pressure continues to shift northeast and away from South
Florida. Therefore...will show a gradual decrease in probability of precipitation from
west to east this evening over South Florida.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


Previous discussion... /issued 732 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015/

the winds will be light and variable until around 13z at all of
the taf sites...before increasing to 5 to 10 knots from the
easterly direction. The winds will continue to increase to around
10 knots at the East Coast taf sites late this morning into this
afternoon...while at kapf taf site the winds will become westerly
around 5 to 10 knots after 18z. The weather should remain dry
through 13z before some showers start to develop over the taf
sites. By late morning into this afternoon...there could be
thunderstorms developing in the area of the taf sites. So have put
in thunderstorms in the vicinity for all of the taf sites for the afternoon hours. The
ceiling and visible will remain in VFR conditions at this time due to
the unknown timing and duration of the showers and thunderstorms
at the taf sites. Once the shower and thunderstorm activity gets
close to the taf sites then a tempo group will be added.


Previous discussion... /issued 427 am EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015/

the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding through the
day remains the primary short term focus for South Florida. Latest
radar imagery shows a shield of light to moderate rain north of Palm
Beach County and the adjacent Atlantic waters. This rainfall is
expected to slowly decrease in coverage through the morning
leaving only scattered light rain showers across the remainder of
South Florida and is depicted in the latest short term guidance.

Into the afternoon and early evening hours...models still show an
elongated area of low pressure/surface trough south of the area
sliding to the northeast. This feature is still expected to generate
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. Still believe
the bulk of the heavy rain will stay across the Atlantic waters and
this has been the consistent trend in model solutions over the past
few days which increases forecast confidence. However...there is
still a heavy rainfall/localized flooding threat mainly for the East
Coast metropolitan areas through the day as this trough slides by. Any
showers and thunderstorms along the outer periphery of this trough
could train across portions of the metropolitan area...and with precipitable waters
still prognosticated to be near 2 inches...could produce copious amounts
of rain and localized flooding.

Prevailing flow will then become light and generally out of the
south Thursday into the weekend. Models still show a remnant trough
lingering across Southeast Florida even though the deepest moisture
is shunted well to the east. This feature combined with the weak
flow will allow for a more typical wet season convective regime with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across the
interior...producing subsequent convection resulting from outflow
boundary interactions.

Weak easterly to east-southeasterly flow is then expected to return
late in the weekend and into early next week as high pressure
returns across the western Atlantic. This will keep the moist Summer-
like pattern in place across South Florida.

areas of moderate to heavy showers are affecting Palm Beach County
this morning. A prob30 group is included for all the East Coast
terminals between 15 and 21z for today. For the most part, VFR
conditions are expected with some areas of MVFR in the heaviest
showers. Apart from the probability group, thunderstorms in the vicinity is included at apf after
10z today. The moisture decreases later on in the day which will
allow for drier conditions on Thursday. This is reflected in the
tafs after 04z on Thursday.

numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the area
waters through the remainder of the week and into the
weekend...primarily across the Atlantic waters as a surface trough
stretches across the area. Wind direction will vary from south
to east over the next few days at 5-15 kts. More consistent
southerly flow will arrive by late weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 85 73 89 76 / 70 50 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 84 74 89 76 / 70 50 50 50
Miami 85 74 89 76 / 70 50 50 50
Naples 87 72 89 75 / 60 50 30 40


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...54/bnb
long term....10/cd

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