Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
327 am EST Monday Dec 9 2013
above normal temperatures will prevail as a subtropical ridge of
high pressure dominates this week. A cold front will approach late
Tuesday then stall Wednesday and Thursday...bringing a chance of
Short term /today through Tuesday night/...
expansive North Atlantic ridge continues to impact Florida
Peninsula...keeping mostly dry conditions and east/southeast winds
over the region today and tonight. On Tuesday...the high pressure
will weaken/move south slightly. Winds begin to turn more
southerly as a weakening cold front moves toward central Florida.
The increased convergence associated with this feature could
produce a few showers Tuesday afternoon and night...especially
given the subtle 800 mb-5 height falls as a longwave trough passes
mainly north of the region. Also...a westward moving disturbance
on the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge...currently
showing up as convection south of Dominican Republic...looks poised
to move south and west of Florida on Tuesday as its drawn around
the ridge and northward by the aforementioned longwave trough.
This could also lead to better coverage of showers...and probability of precipitation
Tuesday/Tuesday night were raised accordingly.
Maxima in the short term should reach low to middle 80s most areas.
Minima will range from low 60s Glades and Hendry to low 70s across
East Coast urban areas. Light winds and potentially clear skies
overnight could lead to fog development over interior South
Florida each night.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
the front will stall near or over South Florida on Wednesday and
dissipate by Thursday...with shower chances continuing. Later
Thursday...surface high pressure from the middle-Atlantic will build
southward...causing winds to increase out of the north and drier
air to filter in. Little cool air advection...so temperatures will
likely only fall a degree or two. Still...above normal
temperatures are forecast through the weekend.
Southeast flow returns on Saturday as the high moves off the
eastern Seaboard. The next cold front may impact South Florida as
early as Sunday.
VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the taf period. A few
showers moved into South Florida...but these were moving across
the interior early this morning so left mention of showers out of
the tafs. Drier air will move into the region overnight and
through Monday. Ceilings 5-7kft will continue overnight for the East
Coast taf sites...with clouds scattering out Monday morning. As
the light showers and clouds move west...this cloud deck may move
into kapf over the next several hours. Southeasterly winds will
remain around 10 knots overnight and then increase to 10-15 knots
with higher gusts after 14-15z on Monday. High pressure will
weaken slightly tonight...and winds will relax to 5-10 knots
southeast winds of 15 kts are forecast today...then should
diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight through Wednesday. A cold front
will stall near South Florida waters on Thursday...then high
pressure building in Thursday night through Saturday may lead to
increasing seas and northerly winds. Until that time...seas will
remain 4 feet or less. Scattered showers are expected Tuesday
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 84 71 84 72 / 10 0 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 82 74 83 73 / 10 0 30 30
Miami 84 73 84 73 / 10 0 30 30
Naples 84 67 84 69 / 10 0 30 20