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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
536 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015

VFR will prevail with just a few rain showers moving in from time to time
along the Atlantic coast. Decided to keep vcsh out at this time as
the rain showers are forecast to be few and far between with little if any
impacts. Low probability of brief MVFR, that's it. Otherwise, winds will
relax overnight while likely becoming north-northwest along all but the
immediate East Coast as per hrrr and lamp guidance. On
Sunday...winds will become NE at 10-15 knots at all sites with some
gusts to around 20 knots. /Gregoria


Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2015/

a benign weather pattern will prevail over South Florida over the
next few days. High pressure will persist to our north with a
continued loosening of the pressure gradient. As such,
northeasterly winds will continue to lessen. Low level moisture
will be minimal...but still just enough for isolated showers to
develop over the Atlantic and moving inland along the Atlantic
coast. Interior and Gulf coastal locales will remain dry.

The persistent northeast wind flow has generated rip currents
along the Atlantic coast with strong rip currents reported today
at South Beach along with several rescues. The high risk of rip
currents will continue on Sunday.

The high will gradually move east into the Atlantic during the
early-middle part of next week as an upper level trough moves in
from the central states. Global models differ in how pronounced
the trough will be and in how far south the associated surface
cold front will get. GFS moves the cold front into north-central
Florida by Thursday while the European model (ecmwf) moves this front into South Florida
Thursday and stalls it out through Friday. Either way...there does look
to be an increasing chance of showers middle to late week associated
with the approach of this front.

Temperatures and humidity will be on a steady increase through middle week
with temperatures above average and dewpoints returning to the lower 70s
ahead of the front. Some slight cooling/drying is possible by next
weekend...but uncertainty in the front's push south is high.
Certainly though no significant cool air is in the foreseeable
future. /Gregoria

high pressure will continue to slowly weaken this weekend. The
wind is already somewhat weaker than the last few days. However,
it will continue to be breezy with a few gusts to around 20
kts. Shower activity has been pretty non-existent today and short
range models show this trend will generally continue, but a few
coastal showers are still possible. They should be isolated and
moving quickly enough to have little to no impact on any of the
taf sites.

high pressure over the eastern states will shift into the
Atlantic by middle week. Northeasterly winds will become
southeasterly by middle week with weakening speeds as the pressure
gradient loosens. This will cause seas to slowly decline. However,
hazardous seas to around 7 feet are forecast in the Gulf Stream
through tomorrow. /Gregoria


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 70 82 72 83 / 20 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 70 82 73 82 / 20 20 20 20
Miami 70 82 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
Naples 63 83 66 85 / 10 0 0 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for amz650-651-670-



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