Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
634 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Easterly wind will remain gusty through the day with
VFR conditions expected. May see a few showers from over the
Atlantic move onshore but rain chances will remain low. Brief MVFR
ceilings are possible this am if one of the isolated shws moves over a
Previous discussion... /issued 345 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
high pressure centered north of Florida will bring gusty winds
and a few Atlantic coast showers into early next week.
Short term /today through Friday/...
nearly zonal upper-level flow evidenced by eastward moving cirrus
shield over South Florida...but low- and middle-level flow is
east/northeast. Fairly shallow moisture will continue to spread
inland from the Atlantic...occasionally bringing a few showers.
This trend is likely to change little through the period.
Surface hipres currently centered over the middle-Atlantic will drift
northeastward into New England today and Wednesday...then move
offshore Thanksgiving day. With low pressure associated with the
decaying frontal boundary along cubas northern coast...tight
pressure gradient exists over South Florida. This will result in
gusty easterly winds...likely a bit stronger than those
experienced thus far...through the remainder of the week. Gusts
to near 30 kts are quite plausible...especially close to the
Atlantic coast. Temperatures will gradually warm...with marine
airmass regulating low temperatures to well above average...with
maxima remaining near/slightly above average. Relative humidity values will be
fairly low...as dewpoint temperatures should be at or below 65f.
Wind will create a few coastal impacts along the Atlantic.
Dangerous rip currents are expected through the period and a high
risk of rip currents will extend beyond the short term. Dangerous
surf may also be an issue along the Palm Beach County
coast...especially Thanksgiving day...and will be monitoring to
see if a high surf advisory is warranted. Additionally...
persistent onshore flow and astronomically high tides could lead
to some minor coastal flooding at sensitive locations...
particularly Miami Beach. Elected to not hoist coastal flood
statement at the moment as tidal predictions and forecast
anomalies suggest levels will remain just below critical
thresholds...but this could certainly change in time.
Long term /Friday night through Monday night/...
broad synoptic pattern this weekend will reflect deepening trough
over western Continental U.S. With upper-level ridge dominating the eastern
half of the country. Upper-level low pressure is expected to
evolve over the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic...though this is
expected to have little impact on South Florida other than to
support the continuing of isolated/scattered showers entering the
East Coast from the waters. It will also keep the remnant
surface trough over Cuba intact...keeping fairly strong easterly
winds over our region. Thus...the risk for rip currents
continues...and rough surf...coastal flooding...and beach erosion
may all plague the Atlantic coast through the weekend.
Early next week the upper-level lopres should weaken...with the
broader eastern Continental U.S. Ridge becoming more dominant. A cold front may
reach northern Florida toward the end of the period...but isn't
expected to make much progress down the peninsula.
VFR conditions expected along with an easterly wind... gusty at
times. May see a few showers overnight at mia and tmb. Low chance
of showers again tomorrow for most taf sites but did not include.
hazardous marine conditions are some of the main impacts we will
have from this persistent pattern of strong east wind. With
remnant trough remaining in place near Cuba and high pressure
remaining dominant over much of the eastern US...pressure gradient
over Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will remain
tight...inducing east wind at 20-25 knots and gusts to gale force.
These winds...combined with a 2-4 foot swell off Palm Beach County
by Thanksgiving...will create 8-10 feet seas over the Gulf Stream. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thanksgiving for
all South Florida waters...and this will likely need to be
extended through the remainder of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 79 74 80 72 / 20 30 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 80 74 81 73 / 20 30 20 20
Miami 81 72 82 72 / 20 30 20 20
Naples 84 66 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for amz610-630-650-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for gmz656-657-676.