Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
255 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

high pressure dominates into the weekend. A weak cold front will
bring little temperature change but a chance of showers by Sunday.


Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
low level ridge axis nearly overhead this afternoon...and not even cumulus
field present in southern County Warning Area. East and West Coast sea breezes
are heading inland...otherwise no sensible weather variation over
the region. Temperatures are near 80f.

Near-zonal flow at middle and upper levels will allow surface
ridging to remain dominant over South Florida through the week.
Current hipres will weaken and slide a bit short wave as another surge
spills in Wednesday night into Thursday. Cant completely rule out
isolated showers over western interior Thursday...but activity
will remain mostly over NE/ec Florida where better convergence and
dynamics are forecast. Easterly winds associated with the building
high pressure may lead to a greater risk for East Coast rip
currents Thursday and Friday. Expect highs in low to middle 80s
through Thursday. Low temperatures will range from upper 50s interior to
around 70f along the East Coast.

Long term /Friday through Monday night/...
winds aloft generally westerly through the period will preclude
significant fronts or storm systems reaching South Florida. A
subtle shortwave trough passes North/East of the region Saturday night
and Sunday...which may send a modest boundary/front into the
region as surface ridge weakens slightly. With the increased
convergence and moisture pool...low probability of precipitation in forecast for Sunday
and Monday...mainly diurnally driven. Temperatures exhibit a slow
warming trend through the period.


stable weather conditions prevail with mainly VFR conditions
continuing this afternoon into at least the early morning hours on
Wednesday. The east and West Coast sea breezes are forming...but
the more inland terminals could still be light and variable or
light westerly from time to time over the next hour or two.


light winds over waters until high pressure building in induces
easterly winds at 10-15 kts for Thursday and Friday. Generally
benign marine conditions expected into the weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 63 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 65 83 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
Miami 65 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 62 81 64 84 / 0 0 0 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...23/sk
long term....23/sk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations