Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
413 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Discussion...
High pressure is forecast to continue building eastward into the
western Atlantic off the Georgia coast today...with an enhanced
pressure gradient and moderate to strong east to northeast winds
forecast through most of the forecast period. In general the local
atmosphere is dry with the precipitable water around one inch and with mostly
stable weather conditions expected for today. Although widely
dispersed light to moderate showers...some of them from cloud
streams off the Bahamas Islands...will continue to move across the
Atlantic waters with a few quickly passing across the East Coast
metropolitan areas from time to time. Otherwise the forecast is basically a
dry forecast for today.
There will be a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic coast
beaches today as winds and seas continue to respond to an increasing
pressure gradient building across the western Atlantic. Moderate to
strong east to northeast winds are forecast across the Atlantic
waters today through at least Friday with the threat for rip
currents remaining elevated through that period.
The current stable weather conditions will be short lived with low
level moisture forecast to enter the region from the Caribbean on
Monday. There will also be a weak middle to upper level trough building
into the eastern Gulf with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
returning to the region. Widely scattered mainly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to be mainly across the southern
portion of the peninsula and adjacent waters with isolated activity
expected elsewhere.
By Tuesday there is consensus amongst the model guidance that deeper
layered tropical moisture will enter the region with a deepening of
the middle to upper level trough in the eastern Gulf. Forecast
soundings indicate that the precipitable water could reach near two inches on
Tuesday and that larger scale synoptic scale lift is forecast. In
addition 500 hpa temperatures are forecast to reach colder levels
for this time of year. Given these factors locally heavy rainfall is
possible. If current forecast trends continue more numerous shower
and thunderstorm activity may be possible...but for now scattered
activity is forecast. In general synoptic factors do not appear to
support much of a severe weather threat.
For the extended forecast...the consensus of the model guidance
continues to indicate that deeper layered tropical moisture and the
persistence of a middle to upper level trough affecting the region could
continue Wednesday through Friday with showers and thunderstorms
indicated in the forecast. The consensus of the guidance indicates that by
Thursday a broad low level and surface trough possibly forming in
the vicinity of the Florida Straits. If this feature develops
strong winds across the Atlantic waters could reach near 25
knots...but for now winds have been capped near 21 knots in the
extended forecast.
&&
Marine...
The pressure gradient is forecast to continue increasing
across the region today and through the upcoming week. Through
Monday winds across the Gulf and Atlantic waters are forecast to
oscillate in the 15 to 20 knot range with pre-cautionary statements
needed through that period with Atlantic and Gulf seas expected to
remain below advisory levels. By Tuesday and Wednesday Gulf and
Atlantic winds could reach near 20 knots and a Small Craft Advisory
may be possible if guidance trends up a bit. Later in the week the
extended guidance continues to increase the winds if a broad surface
trough forms...but for now winds were capped at 21 knots until
future model consensus indicates other wise.
&&
Fire weather...
Minimum relative humidities near the middle to upper 30s are
possible today across Glades...Hendry and portions of Collier
County.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 83 74 83 76 / 10 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 84 78 84 76 / 10 20 30 30
Miami 84 76 85 75 / 10 20 30 40
Naples 91 69 91 71 / 10 10 20 30
&&
Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...rip current risk through Friday afternoon for coastal Broward-
coastal Miami Dade-coastal Palm Beach.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Discussion/marine/fire...60/bd
aviation/radar...57/dg
