Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
118 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS TODAY ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO KAPF
TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ 

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND ONCE THE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SAL CONTINUES ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH FL.
NAAPS SHOWS CONTINUED SAL TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRI
BEFORE ANOTHER SAL MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND STRENGTHENS
ESPECIALLY BY JULY 6TH. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE SAL IS ACCOMPANIED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...SO STRONG PULSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS HAZY, HOT, HUMID AIRMASS. /GREGORIA
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ 

AVIATION...
-TSRA WILL PREVAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAPF BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONVECTION ON THU
AGAIN WILL FOCUS INTERIOR AND TOWARDS GULF COAST, SO ADDED VCTS
FOT THE AFTERNOON FOR KAPF BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME ESE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST BY
MID MORNING THU...BUT WILL BECOME SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF.
/GREGORIA
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A RATHER THICK SAL
(SAHARAN AIR LAYER) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVING THE SKY A MILKY OR HAZY LOOK. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT 7.1C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE PWAT IS BARELY OVER 1.5", THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD FUEL A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN WHERE THE STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED AND THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE NAPLES AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NAPLES SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE. ACCORDING
TO THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MODEL, THE SAL WILL THIN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER THICK LAYER WILL BE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.7" THROUGH 
THIS PERIOD SO STORM COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40-60% EACH 
DAY EXCEPT 20-30% ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS 
OVER THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE 
SAL STILL IN THE AREA. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ON FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH SO 
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE 
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE SURGE SO COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN
ABOUT THE SAME. ON THESE TWO DAYS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, THE GFS DOES SHOW THE STEERING FLOW TO BACK
MORE TO A SSE DIRECTION SO AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW.

ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A GENERAL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER MID 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND VEERING THE 
STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER, 
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND INSTEAD MAINTAINS 
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  92  80  91 /  10  10  20  20 
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  80  90 /  10  20  20  20 
MIAMI            79  90  79  91 /  10  20  20  20 
NAPLES           76  93  76  92 /  20  30  30  40 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations