Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
752 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
most convection is done for the evening. Thus, VFR conditions
through the overnight hours for most of South Florida, with the
exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorm that could locally
cause brief IFR conditions, which should be confined to the
interior of the area. Tomorrow will see some convective
development in the interior and along the Gulf Coast. There is
only a slight chance of any of the taf sites in Southeast Florida
seeing any convection, so, no mention of anything at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 331 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/
rest of today...numerous showers and storms that affected the
interior and Gulf Coast have mostly ended. There is one large cell
across the western portion of the metropolitan area of southern Broward
and northern Miami-Dade counties. An outflow boundary from this
cell may lead to additional showers and storms across the Miami-
Dade and possibly Broward metropolitan area this afternoon. There is also
a convergent band of showers and storms off Grand Bahama over the
northeast regional Atlantic waters.
Wednesday through Friday...TUTT low will enter the southeast
Bahamas tonight and meander through Thursday...then get stretched
east/west by the end of the week. The center of the deep layer
ridge over the western Atlantic will slide slowly westward into
the deep south by the end of the week. East to southeast winds
will prevail. Much drier and warmer air will also work into the
region overnight tonight and through the end of the week.
Precipitable water values are forecast to fall to 1.4-1.6 inches
across the region...or around the 10th-25th percentile. A few
showers/storms are still possible for the East Coast metropolitan areas
each morning below the inversion. Scattered showers and storms are
forecast each afternoon/evening for the interior and Gulf Coast.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon and lows in the
70s to around 80 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday...deep layer ridge will slide to the Southern
Plains...with deep east to northeast flow across the region on
Saturday. Dry air and unfavorable flow will lead to below normal
rain chances across South Florida. An area of low pressure may
develop somewhere across the southeast on Sunday...but low rain
chances will continue once again for the region. Higher rain
chances may return next Monday as the ridge pushes into the Desert
Southwest...and East Coast troughing tries to develop.
east southeast winds 10-15 knots with seas below 3 feet will prevail
into the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 90 79 91 / 10 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 80 89 80 90 / 10 20 20 20
Miami 79 91 80 91 / 10 20 20 20
Naples 76 93 75 93 / 20 60 30 40