Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
619 am EST sun Dec 22 2013
high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic waters today
allowing for an easterly winds of around 15g22 kts today at the
East Coast taf sites. The winds will then decrease to around 5 to
10 knots tonight from the east over the East Coast taf sites. For
kapf taf site...the winds will also remain easterly today at 10 to
15 kts with gusts up to 18 knots before decreasing to around 5
knots for tonight. The ceiling and visible will also remain in the VFR
conditions today along with dry weather over the taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 325 am EST sun Dec 22 2013/
.High risk of rip currents Atlantic beaches today...
.warm, humid conditions continue - many record warmest lows...
Discussion...massive ridge across South Florida/western Atlantic is
pumping up incredible warmth up the eastern Seaboard. Take our
nation's capital for instance...where the average low on this date
is 31f and the current temperature there is an amazing 70f, just 2f
degrees away from the record high for this date! This impressive
ridge will hold firm over our area today before breaking down Monday-
Tuesday. Before this happens, temperatures will continue well above
seasonal averages. In fact, temperatures have not budged overnight and
still are in the middle- upper 70s East Coast to around 70f
elsewhere. All major reporting sites across South Florida likely will
break the record warmest mins today, but we won't know for sure
until midnight tonight. We will come close to record highs, but
likely come 1-2f degrees short. Another warm night is forecast
tonight with some record warmest mins occurring yet again.
Dewpoints will remain around 70f. Moisture increases just a tad on
Monday with the approach of a weakening cold front, so will keep
just slight probability of precipitation in the forecast. Highs again Monday will push
into the 80s, but again likely short of records. See climate
section below for record data.
Rip currents have been occurring along the Atlantic beaches with some
rescues. A steady southeast wind will continue today, so will
include a high risk of rip currents, especially this morning before
winds/surf lower a tad later in the day.
GFS and European model (ecmwf) both show the weakening cold front moving across South
Florida on Tuesday. Forecast soundings aren't impressive with moisture nor
instability, so will maintain just a chance of showers and no
The trend in the models from the past couple of days
continues...with the 22.00z GFS being more aggressive with the front
as compared to the 22.00z European model (ecmwf) which doesn't show as much of a
thrust south and keep higher moisture and convergence across Southeast
Florida on Christmas day. If GFS verifies, Christmas would be dry,
but if the European model (ecmwf) verifies, pesky waves of showers on a breezy east-northeast
wind could affect the East Coast metropolitan areas. Will go in the middle
with slight chance of showers for now. It will become cooler and
less humid Tuesday night-Christmas. Although the cold front will only
bring temperatures to seasonal averages on Christmas day, after these
recent very warm, humid days...it will be a noticeable change in
Late in the week SW flow aloft occurs and the front meanders back
north, so chance probability of precipitation look good Thursday and through week's end.
Temperatures will gradually warm after Christmas.
Marine...southeast winds will gradually relax this afternoon-Monday.
Winds will pick up behind the passage of a cold front on Tuesday
with quickly building seas, especially in the Gulf Stream and
offshore Gulf waters...to hazardous levels Tuesday-Christmas day.
here is the record data for sun-Mon:
Record high minimums:
mia 75/1911 74/2006
fll 75/2006 75/2006
pbi 74/1929 75/2006
apf 69/2006 69/2006
Record high temperatures:
mia 86/1897 86/1990
fll 86/1951 86/1920
pbi 86/1951 87/1926
apf 87/1990 85/1951
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 83 73 83 68 / - - 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 84 76 84 72 / - 10 20 20
Miami 85 75 84 70 / - - 20 20
Naples 86 69 82 66 / - 10 20 20
Florida...rip current risk until 6 PM EST this evening for coastal Broward-
coastal Miami Dade-coastal Palm Beach.