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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
841 PM EDT sun may 24 2015

Update...
convection has ended as predicted with mainly a slight chance of
showers now left for the overnight period along the East Coast and
offshore waters of the Gulf as strong low level easterly flow continues.
Updated grids to reflect latest conditions including slightly higher
winds in lake Okee and the Atlantic waters. Main concerns overnight
will be continued high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches
with numerous rescues reported today. Also, patchy fog mixing with
smoke from inland fires along Alligator alley in inland Collier could
result in poor visibilities overnight so amended severe weather potential statement to reflect potential
accordingly. Coverage and intensity of storms today diminished and will
continue to do so over next couple of days as drier and more stable
airmass approaches the area.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 746 PM EDT sun may 24 2015/

Aviation...
isolated rain showers this evening may impact kpbi and kapf...then should
be dry through 4-6z. Thereafter...only isolated coverage
expected...but maintained existing vcsh. A bit more coverage
Monday...but still overall probability of precipitation around 30 percent. East winds
dominate...10-15 knots overnight...then 15-20 knots Memorial Day.

Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM EDT sun may 24 2015/

Discussion...

Despite the strong ridge of high pressure forecast for this coming
week the 500 mb temperatures are forecast to stay around -8c for
almost the entire week since the strongest subsidence and warming
is forecast to occur just east of the Florida Peninsula. The
fraction of the naefs members forecasting extreme values ranges
between 97% and 100% between Monday morning and Tuesday afternoon
for the core of the 500 mb high pressure. This continues to indicate
very high confidence in the location of the ridge center. Moisture
increases from east to west. Very dry is forecast to affect South
Florida for Wednesday between 500 mb and 700 mb as the trough in the west
moves eastward and the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic gets
sandwiched between an upper level low in the central portions of
the Atlantic and the trough to the west. The high pressure and the
dry air weakens somewhat from Thursday to the weekend with an
increase in moisture from the eastern Caribbean Sea forecast for
Sunday.

Surface to 500 mb winds stay easterly for the entire forecast period.
The surface esterly winds start decreasing after Wednesday.
Between this afternoon and Monday afternoon the pressure gradient
is tightest. Winds are forecast to stay below the Small Craft
Advisory criteria for winds. However, changes in the guidance
tonight could prompt the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory Monday
morning.

A high risk of rip currents continues in effect between now and
Tuesday evening.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 88 77 88 / 30 30 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 79 88 78 88 / 30 40 20 10
Miami 77 90 77 89 / 30 30 20 10
Naples 74 91 74 94 / 20 50 20 30

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Tuesday afternoon for flz168-172-
173.

Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...23/sk
long term....52/ps

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