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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ONLY GRID UPDATES INVOLVED ALTERING
HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS/-RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER 
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO A CONTINUED 
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING MOISTURE 
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT -RA THAT COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST 
COAST SITES...SO KEPT VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO 
PREVAIL. BRIEF ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT 
ENOUGH TO PREVAIL ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND 
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF COAST IN THE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST. 
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL 
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  73  83 /  30  50  50  40 
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  80  75  83 /  30  50  50  30 
MIAMI            72  80  74  84 /  30  60  50  30 
NAPLES           67  81  71  84 /  20  30  20  20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....BNB/JE/RM 
AVIATION...10/CD

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