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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
839 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...
MOST CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR KPBI AND -RA
AT KAPF BUT THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 01-02Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WITH
THE LIGHT E-SE FLOW THIS COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/ 

..ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FL. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
SURFACE-BASED CAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 4500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. THE 500 MB TEMP ON THE MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS -9.3C/COLDEST HISTORICALLY FOR THIS
DATE. SO UPDRAFTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE AS WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK. THE THREATS WILL BE BOTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.

THE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. TSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NOW WEST OF THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TSTORM
OUTFLOW COULD SPAWN NEW TSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COASTS
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION
OF AN E-SE WIND FLOW PATTERN WITH DAILY CONVECTION FOCUSED
INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND SOME NIGHTTIME CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. 

THE NAVY MODEL SHOWS THE SAL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW
THEN DEPARTING THE AREA ON WED WITH SAL REMAINING OVER THE CARIB
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...SO A RETURN TO MORE BLUER SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

(FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS IMPRESSED
WITH A PASSING H5 TUTT- LIKE LOW PUSHING INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
MIDWEEK...WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.5
INCHES BY FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERALL.

MARINE...
SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 1-3 FT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  91 /  30  50  30  30 
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  79  90 /  30  40  30  20 
MIAMI            79  90  79  91 /  20  40  30  20 
NAPLES           76  91  76  93 /  20  50  20  50 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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