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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/ 

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT'S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  30  30  40  70 
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60 
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50 
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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