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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...

STABLE WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW
CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
TERMINAL KAPF. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THREE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THEN WEAKEN AS 
THEY SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER 
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INTO NORTH 
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SECOND FEATURE WILL 
MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. A 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WILL 
REINFORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND 
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SO A MORE WELL 
ESTABLISHED EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A 
SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES BY 
THURSDAY. THE THIRD BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND 
IT WILL ALSO FIZZLE BEFORE REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTH THE GFS AND 
ECMWF SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY 
RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND DEVELOPING SATURDAY 
AND SUNDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD 
AS LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL CREEP 
INTO THE MID 60S BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

MARINE...
SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW
SETS UP LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  63  83  69 /   0   0   0  10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  65  82  70 /   0   0   0  10 
MIAMI            80  66  82  69 /   0   0   0   0 
NAPLES           79  61  81  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK

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