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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT IS LOCATED JUST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING HAS BECOME STABLE
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SKIES
CLEARING UP THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR HEATING TO OCCUR AND THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSAGING BY TO THE NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE LOWERED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015/ 

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 13Z AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES...BEFORE INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE AT KAPF TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 13Z BEFORE SOME SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF
SITES. BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE PUT
IN VCTS FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE UNKNOWN TIMING AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE TAF SITES. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS
CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH THE 
DAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FOCUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. LATEST 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTH OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MODELS STILL SHOW AN 
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA 
SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL BELIEVE 
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL STAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 
THIS HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 
FEW DAYS WHICH INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS 
STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT MAINLY FOR THE EAST 
COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES BY. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH
COULD TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA...AND WITH PWATS
STILL PROGGED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...COULD PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PREVAILING FLOW WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE 
SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOW A REMNANT TROUGH 
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE 
IS SHUNTED WELL TO THE EAST. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK 
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WET SEASON CONVECTIVE REGIME WITH 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...PRODUCING SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION RESULTING FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

WEAK EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN 
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOIST SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PALM BEACH COUNTY
THIS MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP IS INCLUDED FOR ALL THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z FOR TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS. APART FROM THE PROB GROUP, VCTS IS INCLUDED AT APF AFTER
10Z TODAY. THE MOISTURE DECREASES LATER ON IN THE DAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS AFTER 04Z ON THU. 

MARINE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM SOUTH
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT 5-15 KTS. MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE BY LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  89  76 /  70  50  40  30 
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  89  76 /  70  50  50  50 
MIAMI            85  74  89  76 /  70  50  50  50 
NAPLES           87  72  89  75 /  60  50  30  40 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD

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