Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
717 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. NW BREEZES OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/ 

..COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH
WEEK'S END. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM THE WET DRY SEASON
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR! 

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL COME
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS.

THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO LOWS/WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING IT WAS A NUDGE IN A MILDER DIRECTION. AS
SUCH...AM NOT EXPECTING FROST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. 

GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TWO AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT.

BUILDING SURF IS FORECAST ALONG ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACHES
OVERNIGHT-MON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
AN INTENSE OCEANIC LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
WIND FIELDS/FETCH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING OVERNIGHT AND
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 10-12 SECOND SWELL
OF 4-6 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST. SURF HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT...AND
THIS IS UNDER THE 10 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MON EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY FADES. THE SWELL
LESSENS WITH DISTANCE DOWN THE COAST.

THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS
AS A SUBSIDING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING, DROPPING FOR ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT-MONDAY ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  42  66  51 /  10   0   0  10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  45  66  55 /  10   0   0  10 
MIAMI            62  45  66  56 /  10   0   0  10 
NAPLES           59  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...52/PS

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations