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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WHILE PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A RESULT. CUTOFF H5 LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
CONCURRENTLY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA
WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AREAS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE H5 SHORTWAVE THUS ENHANCING LIFT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MORNING SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. VIRTUALLY ALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER DARK WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY LINGERING MAINLY
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
KEEPING A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER WET PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MID LEVEL
IMPULSES SLIGHTLY DETACHED FROM THE PARENT H5 SHORTWAVE WELL TO
THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH MODELS DEPICTING THE
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP THE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL DEVELOP INTO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. BY THIS
EVENING, THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND TAKE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. FOR TODAY, EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE AFTERNOON,
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HAVE PLACED THE PROB30
GROUPS LATER IN THE DAY TO REFLECT THIS FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
OVERALL, MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT AROUND 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  87  74 /  70  20  60  20 
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  76  88  77 /  60  20  60  20 
MIAMI            86  76  88  76 /  60  20  60  20 
NAPLES           83  75  85  75 /  70  20  50  30 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI

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