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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH, AND WITH THAT H5 TEMPS WILL WARM
AGAIN TODAY WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MOSTLY 6C/KM OR LESS. PWATS
ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP. SLIGHTLY LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY, SO STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS BOTH COAST'S SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. ALTHOUGH GREATEST POPS WILL BE AWAY FROM THE COAST, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME STORMS NEAR THE CITIES WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION. STRONGER STORMS BECOMING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE WITH
WARMING MIDLEVELS, HOWEVER STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER WIND
GUST TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN DELAY OR HOLD BACK ON
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE
EXTENDED BREAKS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLIER.
WITH MORNING ONSHORE FLOW, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EVENTUALLY, PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FL WILL
BE SHOVED NORTH BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE, AS THE H5
RIDGE CONSOLIDATES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...

WEAK H5/H3 LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS CUBA EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS IT SETTLES AND OPENS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO WEDNESDAY, COOLER H5 TEMPS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, INCREASING INSTABILITY. THUS STORMS MAY BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AND A LITTLE STRONGER STARTING WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION, A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COAST NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE H5 RIDGE
IS SPLIT PERHAPS SHIFTING ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, NAVY MODEL AND RH FIELDS FROM THE GFS SEEM TO BE PICKING
UP ON A SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARRIVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
POSSIBLY ENTERING THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TOO, WHICH
COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  92  76 /  40  30  40  30 
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  90  79 /  40  30  40  30 
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  40  30  40  30 
NAPLES           91  78  91  76 /  30  20  30  10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

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