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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
341 am EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

strong thunderstorms that affected portions of the East Coast metropolitan
areas through much of the night have dissipated early this morning
and should eventually give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies. The
synoptic pattern continues to look consistent through the
Independence day weekend with ridging entrenched across the western
Atlantic. An 500 mb shortwave trough will also swing across the
southeastern states. As it will nudge the western Atlantic
ridge axis a bit further south. This will allow a more southeasterly
to southerly steering flow regime through the weekend...pushing the
majority of the afternoon and evening convection across the interior
and Lake Okeechobee region. This is also depicted by the latest hrrr
and other hi-res guidance. Severe parameters again look rather
meager but a few storms could still be strong with frequent
lightning and gusty winds being the main threats.

Ridging will remain in place and be the dominant feature across the
area through next week. The Navy aerosol model is still depicting
some Saharan dust to push into South Florida Sunday through the
early part of next week...decreasing the overall coverage of showers
and thunderstorms. Ridging will keep the persistent easterly flow
pattern thus keeping most convection across the interior and Gulf

By the middle to late week period...models continue to show a
TUTT-like low pushing to the west across the Bahamas and into the
Florida Straits. The trajectory of this feature is now a bit further
south than shown by the GFS. The European model (ecmwf) is less
bullish. This feature should have only a minor impact on the weather
for South Florida...only increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms slightly as it passes by.


VFR conditions expected through taf period. Scattered afternoon
convection Saturday accounted for by thunderstorms in the vicinity. Probability of precipitation fairly low for
Miami-Dade confidence in thunderstorms in the vicinity being needed is low.
Light east-southeast winds overnights...then increasing to 10 kts or so
during the day.


persistent high pressure across the western Atlantic will continue
to allow east to southeast winds at mostly 10 knots or less
through the Independence day weekend and next week. Seas are
expected to be less than 4 feet both over the Gulf and Atlantic


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 90 80 91 80 / 50 20 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 89 81 91 81 / 40 10 20 20
Miami 90 79 91 80 / 40 20 20 20
Naples 92 76 92 76 / 50 10 30 20


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...10/cd
long term....10/cd

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