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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1254 PM EST sun Jan 25 2015

Aviation...
VFR forecast through the early morning hours on Monday. With
second weak front moving through tomorrow moisture will return
across the area but mostly in the form of clouds most noticeable
toward sunrise Monday morning. That said...ceilings are forecast to
remain mostly in VFR range with may be some MVFR ceilings at apf in
the morning. Light rain/drizzle cannot be ruled out from taf sites
in the morning but given uncertainty left any mention of it out of
the forecast at this time and will amend as needed with future
updates. NAM is a bit more aggressive with moisture but given
ensembles and blend of these will deal with it as stated for the
moment.

Winds will gradually become more light and variable this afternoon
increasing more out of the south and then south-southwest and west by tomorrow
morning as the front approaches the region. Strengthening pressure
gradient with system across the area should result in breeze
conditions by middle to late Monday morning (westerly winds 15-20
knots and gusty).

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1046 am EST sun Jan 25 2015/

Update...
dry high pressure will continue to build across South Florida
through the day with mostly clear skies. Only adjustments made to
the ongoing forecast were to hourly temperatures based on the
latest trends. The remainder of the forecast looks good at this
time.

Previous discussion... /issued 553 am EST sun Jan 25 2015/

Aviation...

VFR forecast through the taf period. Possibly a few hours of a sea
breeze at kpbi/kfxe/kfll late this afternoon. Light west winds
tonight as some high clouds stream across the terminals, well
south of a cold front entering North Florida.

Previous discussion... /issued 312 am EST sun Jan 25 2015/

Short term (today-tuesday)...
a cool pattern is in store for South Florida through the short term
period as a large scale cyclonic circulation has developed across
eastern North America. Temperatures through Tuesday will run 5-10
degrees below the average for late January. A cold front that moved
across South Florida on Saturday has moved east of the peninsula
currently approaching the central Bahamas to central Cuba. High
pressure will settle over South Florida today with a morning chill
(south Florida style) with wind chill readings ranging from
around 40 west of Lake Okeechobee and the 40s across the remainder
of South Florida except lower to middle 50s along the Atlantic coast.
Today will be sunny with afternoon temperatures struggling to
reach the upper 60s or the 70 degree mark. Tonight and early
Monday, a strong middle level trough will deepen into the southeast
states with another cold front moving across South Florida during
the day. Global models have been persistent in showing this
feature the past several runs but have become rather bullish in
showing scattered showers along the frontal boundary with the NAM
being the most aggressive and actually hinting at numerous showers
along the southeast coast. This just does not make any sense for
a couple of reasons. First of all, this is quite a common pattern
during the winter season to have a reinforcing push of cooler air
behind the original cold front. During these phases, the flow from
the surface to well aloft remains west to northwest making it
nearly impossible to get a return flow of moisture deep enough to
allow shower activity. And second of all, model forecast soundings
from all model guidance including the NAM are showing an extremely
brief increase of precipitable water at just over an inch. So for these reasons,
I cut back significantly on the pop guidance for Monday.

Tuesday morning will have a repeat performance of this morning with
early morning wind chill readings in the 40s over most of South
Florida except the lower and middle 50s along the southeast coast.
Surface high pressure will remain well to the northwest of the
region continuing the northwest wind flow near the surface with the
large scale cyclonic circulation also moving little. This will
result in once again afternoon temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Long term (wednesday-saturday)...
the extended period will see a gradual warming trend as the large
scale trough lifts to the northeast and the surface high pressure
also shifts east into the Atlantic. This will result in a return to
more of a zonal flow aloft and low level easterly winds coming in
off the warmer Atlantic waters. Temperatures by the end of this week
will return to near normal values.

Marine...
wind and seas will be diminishing today and tonight as high
pressure settles across the South Florida local waters. Another
cold front will move through the waters on Monday with strong high
pressure building behind the front. Wind and seas will once again
build Monday through Tuesday with possible 10 foot waves in the
Gulf waters and 6-8 feet over the Gulf Stream waters of the
Atlantic. Wind and seas will then subside on Wednesday and
Thursday as the high pressure weakens and shifts east into the
Atlantic.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 69 53 73 49 / 0 0 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 70 55 74 51 / 0 0 20 10
Miami 71 55 75 52 / 0 0 20 10
Naples 66 58 71 52 / 0 10 20 0

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Short term...52/ps
long term....10/cd
aviation...52/ps

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