Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
743 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
far less early morning convection across the area waters seen this
morning as was seen yesterday. This should allow for less in the
way of debris clouds through the afternoon hours yielding better
convective chances. Guidance also depicts sea breezes developing
at both coasts later this afternoon which will help with
convective development. Thunderstorms in the vicinity after 16z for all East Coast sites
with east-southeast winds around 10 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
currently, a middle/upper level elongated trough extends from the
southeast states into the central Gulf of Mexico with a surface
trough across central Florida. A large plume of tropical moisture
extends from the Yucatan Peninsula northeast across the Florida
Peninsula. This pattern will change little today but some slightly
drier air will move in from the Bahamas on Saturday to the northwest
of T.S. Erika as it moves across Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The
question of the day is just how much influence will those islands
have on erika? The official forecast from NHC shows Erika to move
across Hispaniola tonight, to the north of Cuba on Saturday and
through the Bahamas on Sunday. This is all dependent on the
system holding together after its interaction with Hispaniola. At
any rate, global models are in general agreement that it will have
some impact on South Florida late in the weekend into Monday and
then move north of the region through the middle of the week.
Moisture will linger however as southwesterly flow develops so
chances of rain will remain high through much of next week.
winds will be south early today before backing to an easterly
direction this afternoon and on Saturday. The speeds will be 10
knots or less through Friday before increasing to 15-20 knots on
Saturday. This will keep the seas at 4 feet or less in both the
Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Saturday.
The marine forecast for late this weekend into early next week
will highly depend on the track and strength of Erika.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 79 91 81 / 60 30 30 40
Fort Lauderdale 91 81 90 80 / 60 30 30 40
Miami 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 30 40
Naples 91 77 93 77 / 60 20 50 40