Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
300 am EST Friday Mar 6 2015
Short term (today-sunday)...
The short-range model guidance has initialized well with the
current pattern and indicates the upper ridge overhead weakening
as a shortwave trough advances eastward over the middle-Atlantic coast
today. The associated cold front currently analyzed over central
Florida will approach and move into the local area today, then
stall over the weekend. A combination of the frontal boundary,
daytime heating and plenty of low-level moisture will support scattered
showers today across portions of the local area. The latest hi-res
model reflectivities indicate isolated/scattered showers developing across
portions of the interior areas through the afternoon hours, then
tracking southward with the boundary. Warm and dry middle-levels
combined with limited forcing will keep the thunderstorm chances too low
to include in this package. However, the latest guidance does
indicate a non-zero potential (10- 15% probabilities), so, a few
lightning strikes can't be completely ruled out across the southern end of
the peninsula near the front this later this afternoon/early
The guidance remains in good agreement Saturday through Sunday and
indicates the rain chances remaining in the forecast as the
previously discussed frontal boundary stalls near/over the area.
Although most of the shower activity this weekend should be brief
with little accumulations, a few periods of moderate/heavy rain could
generate locally higher rainfall amounts. Temperatures will remain
above average each day as high pressure builds eastward north of the
local area (5-10 degree above average through the overnight periods).
Long term (monday-friday)...
Above average temperatures will likely persist through the
upcoming week as the stalled frontal boundary over the state
retreats northward and upper heights begin to rise. The extended
guidance remains in decent agreement through this period and
generally indicates a fairly dry pattern across the area as the
upper ridge holds in place. Low-level flow is prognosticated to remain
out of the east through the period south of the ridge axis.
A cold front will move over the marine area today...then stall
through the weekend. This boundary will keep the rain chances in
the forecast, especially across the Atlantic waters this weekend.
Increasing northeast winds and building seas may reach or near
advisory levels through the day Saturday across the Gulf Stream
waters east of Palm Beach County.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 81 69 79 71 / 30 30 60 50
Fort Lauderdale 82 69 78 71 / 30 40 40 60
Miami 84 70 81 71 / 20 40 40 60
Naples 81 63 81 67 / 20 20 20 10