Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
824 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish in coverage across
the area this evening. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows
dry air filtering into the area as South Florida remains on the
western periphery of an upper low situated across the Bahamas. Still
however could be a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two
across the waters overnight according to the latest high resolution
models. Updated pop and weather grids accordingly.
Previous discussion... /issued 741 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
an upper level low pressure system will drift westward over the next
couple of days, bringing increased chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms from this evening through the taf period. While
tonight should see somewhat of a lull in activity, tomorrow,
convection is expected to develop by late morning and could
possibly impact all taf sites through the day. It is possible that
most of the activity is more to the interior and Gulf Coast, than
on the Atlantic coast, but have placed thunderstorms in the vicinity in the tafs for
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
an upper-level low pressure system will be the dominant weather
feature over South Florida for the remainder of the work-
week...bringing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue over mainly
interior and western sections of South Florida this afternoon.
There is still a potential for gusty winds with this
activity...especially near Naples metropolitan. Any showers over the
waters will be capable of producing waterspouts. Most showers and
thunderstorms will diminish with sunset...but some activity may
linger over Atlantic waters and potentially impact Atlantic
coastal areas overnight.
An upper-level low pressure /TUTT/ over the Bahamas that is
responsible for the showers/thunderstorms over Atlantic waters tonight
will approach the region Wednesday morning...then be overhead or
just south of County Warning Area into Wednesday night. The result will be
slightly cooler temperatures aloft /h5 temperatures around -8c/ and
deeper moisture spreading in on east-southeasterly l/mlvl flow. Expect greater
shower and thunderstorm coverage Wednesday...with a least slight
better chance for strong thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely through Thursday...as
the ulvl lopres gradually pushes west of the region and deep
moisture pool spreads north. Sofla will reside in favorable lift
of NE quadrant of the lopres...so a few strong thunderstorms will still be
possible. The moisture and lopres will begin to exit the region as
early as Thursday night.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
the middle- to upper-level low will dissipate over the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. The wind flow will be from the southeast
this weekend over South Florida...and allow for some drier air to
work into the area from the Bahamas. South Florida should get
back to more of a typical late-Summer weather pattern with mainly
afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms focusing
over the interior and West Coast metropolitan area.
east-southeast flow at 10 to 15 knots will prevail into the
weekend...with seas remaining under 3 feet. Gusty winds and higher
seas are likely in an near numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through the end of the work-week. This activity will
become less widespread for the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 90 77 89 / 20 50 30 60
Fort Lauderdale 80 90 79 89 / 30 50 40 60
Miami 79 90 78 90 / 40 50 40 60
Naples 75 91 75 90 / 20 60 20 50