Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
133 am EDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation...VFR will prevail with few-sct030 developing this
afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms,
but it looks like the best chance of any activity developing will
be over the interior so left mention out of the tafs for now.
Winds will be light NW, becoming NE and eventually east late this
afternoon East Coast, but are expected to remain northwest at kapf while
increasing to around 15 knots by afternoon. /Gregoria
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 824 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Aviation...
generally quiet pattern for next 24-36 hours...with VFR conditions
prevailing. Patchy fog should remain inland of terminals tonight
and Friday morning. Isolated showers are expected Friday
afternoon...but probability is low and doesnt warrant inclusion in
0z tafs. Will monitor some showers north of Lake Okeechobee this
evening have remote chance of impacting Palm Beach later...so
their evolution will be monitored. Onshore winds will diminish
tonight...then increase to 10 kts or so Friday by mid-morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM EDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Drier weather on the way for Memorial Day weekend...
Short term...
the trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic waters will
continue the westerly steering flow over South Florida for this
afternoon allowing for some drier air in the middle levels of the
atmosphere to work into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the West Coast sea breeze to push across the
interior areas and into the East Coast metropolitan areas of South
Florida this afternoon into early this evening...as the East
Coast sea breeze remains over the East Coast metropolitan areas of South
Florida. So scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop
this afternoon over the interior areas...before pushing east into
the East Coast metropolitan areas late this afternoon into early this
evening. So will keep the isolated to scattered probability of precipitation in place for
the interior and East Coast metropolitan areas through the afternoon
hours.
Some of the storms could become strong with even a few storms
becoming severe...mainly over the eastern interior and East Coast metropolitan
areas through the early evening hours. The primary impacts from
the storms will be gusty winds...frequent lightning strikes...and
heavy rainfall.
Some fog could develop over most of South Florida tonight with
even some dense fog over the interior areas....due to the low
level moisture in place along with the light south to southwest
steering flow and mostly clear skies.
The trough over the western Atlantic waters will move east and
away from South Florida on Friday allowing for a cool front over
the southeastern United States to move south into central Florida.
At the same time...a pre-frontal trough over central Florida will
also move south and through South Florida. This will allow for the
steering flow to swing from a southwest direction Friday morning
to a northerly wind flow Friday afternoon. So the drier air to the
north will start to work into the area Friday afternoon.
Therefore...there will only be a slight chance of probability of precipitation over South
Florida on Friday with the interior areas seeing the best chance
of any storms that do develop.
The pre-frontal trough will continue to move into the Florida Keys
Friday night...as the cool front moves south into the Lake
Okeechobee area. The cool front will then continue to move south
through South Florida on Saturday...before moving into the Florida
Keys Saturday night. With the passage of the front...the very dry
air will work into South Florida from the north for Saturday night
into Sunday. Therefore...there will only be a slight chance of
showers over the southern areas of South Florida on Saturday...before
going completely dry over South Florida for Saturday night into
Sunday.
The winds will also become breezy from the northeast over South
Florida Saturday night into Sunday...as the pressure gradient
tightens over the area due to high pressure building into the
southeastern United States. So will continue the breezy wording
for South Florida for Sunday.
Long term...
the high will remain nearly stationary over the southeast United
States for Memorial Day keeping the weather dry along with the
breezy northeast wind flow. The high will then start to move east
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week allowing for the steering flow
to become more easterly over South Florida. This will allow for
the return of moisture to the area along with some showers and
thunderstorms. So will keep the slight chance to low end chance of
probability of precipitation over South Florida for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Marine...
the winds will be southwest to west tonight into Friday morning
before swinging to a northerly direction Friday night into this
weekend. The speeds will remain below 10 knots tonight into Friday
night before increasing to at least breezy conditions this
weekend. This will keep the seas below 6 feet tonight into this
weekend...but the Gulf Stream seas could increase to 6 feet
Saturday night into Sunday. So there could be a need for a scec
conditions for most of the local waters this weekend due to the winds.
Fire weather...
the relative humidities will remain above the 35 percent critical
value this weekend. However...the interior areas on Friday could
get close to the 35 percent relative humidity value for couple of
hours...but the energy release component (erc) will remain in the
20s for Friday. So no fire weather watches or red flag warnings
will be issued for South Florida for Friday into this weekend.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 84 71 80 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 76 86 74 81 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 75 87 73 81 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 73 91 66 84 / 10 - - -
&&
Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
