Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
920 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016
The dry front that passed across South Florida and regional waters
continues to exit the region with northerly winds building in
behind the front. Across the regional waters winds in the 15 to 20
knot range are expected with building seas but remaining below
advisory levels and a pre-cautionary statement is in effect for
all the regional waters except for Biscayne Bay.
Previous discussion... /issued 633 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016/
VFR conditions expected to prevail through evening and over night
hours. Regional winds forecast to become north northeast late this
evening...but for Atlantic coast terminals there will be periods
of north northwest especially over night with off shore drainage
flow and indicated in the taf's with a tempo group.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2016/
Seasonable weather pattern through next week...
Arctic high pressure over the north central U.S. Will move east
and encompass New England and the Middle Atlantic States on Sunday
with the ridge stretching into Florida...behind a departing cold
front moving across South Florida this afternoon. No big push of cold
air this far south though as winds quickly turn to the northeast
behind it...eventually turning easterly late Sunday-Monday while
increasing. This will lead to an increasing threat of rip currents
along the Atlantic beaches during this time. A statement for a
high risk of rip currents may be required for the Atlantic beaches
by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will run just slightly cooler tonight-Sunday behind the
front before quickly warming on Monday. Another shortwave digs
into the southeastern state late Mon-Tue...and model consensus
shows another cold front moving across South Florida on Tuesday.
However, the main energy remains displaced well off to the north
and surface convergence looks to be weak. As such, the tstorm risk
looks so minimal that it was decided to remove this mention from
the forecast. This front will be fast moving with low quantitative precipitation forecast...<0.25"
High pressure will settle in from the west-northwest behind the
front with tranquil conditions prevailing for the latter half of
next week. A ridge looks to build in from the Gulf of Mexico
during this time as well...keeping fronts north of the area with
seaonable warmth expected. /Gregoria
a weak, dry cold front is moving across South Florida this
afternoon. It is mainly marked by a clearing line, currently near
Lake Okeechobee. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through the
taf period, with wind being the main concern, and even then, not
significant. The wind is expected to become more northeast to east
as high pressure builds in tonight, behind the front. Tomorrow,
the wind will conitinue with a geneerally easterly direction, and
increase to 10-15 kts, with some gusts possible, mainly in the
late morning and afternoon. So, basically VFR through the taf
high pressure over the central U.S. Will move to the eastern
Seaboard of the United States through Sunday, then into the
Atlantic early next week. This will lead to a prevailing
northeasterly wind flow becoming easterly while picking up.
The next cold front is forecast to move across the local waters
on Tuesday...but having little impact as winds/seas are forecast
to be low associated with its passage and wake. /Gregoria
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 56 71 64 77 / 10 10 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 59 72 66 78 / 10 10 20 30
Miami 59 73 65 78 / 0 10 20 20
Naples 50 74 55 79 / 0 0 0 10