Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
107 am EST Sat Mar 8 2014
High pressure is building over South Florida. However, there is an
area of low ceilings covering most of the area, and spreading across the
remaining potions of South Florida. MVFR conditions to VFR
conditions should continue, and ceilings should break up after
sunrise. Tomorrow, will see VFR and winds turning through the day
from northwest to east northeast by late afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 941 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014/
no major changes were made to the current forecast. However,
extensive middle level stratus is streaming down from central Florida
and while model guidance was showing these clouds dissipating,
they have not done so as yet. This could hold temperatures up
several degrees especially over the western portions and in
particular coastal Collier County. Left the forecast alone and
give the clouds a chance to thin, but may have to make minor
adjustments later in the night. Also, extended the Small Craft Advisory over the
Atlantic waters with a scec statement for Biscayne Bay as the northwest
wind has been slow to diminish there. They are slowly beginning to
subside and the advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 06z.
Previous discussion... /issued 213 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014/
Discussion...after an active day yesterday, the weather is
tranquil across South Florida and this pattern will continue
through Tuesday. High pressure building in from the northwest with
a drier airmass now into South Florida...with dewpoints in the
50s...will allow for a cool night tonight as skies will be mostly
clear along with lightening winds from the windy conditions this
afternoon. This will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s along the
populated coasts to the 40s over the interior. This weekend will
be spectacular with near full sunshine and seasonal warmth as a
ridge will dominate South Florida weather. This ridge will remain firm
over the area through Tuesday, keeping rain out of the picture
along with gradually warming temperatures and a slow rebound in humidity.
During the middle part of next week...GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a middle
level shortwave moving into Texas and into the northern Gulf of
Mexico, but not as far south as the one of yesterday...so this
looks to keep the active weather off to our north at this time.
Where models diverge drastically is with the handling of a
northern trough Wed-Thu. European model (ecmwf) deepens this trough, driving a
strong cold front across South Florida Thursday with significant
cooling for middle March. However, the GFS is not nearly as
pronounced and further north with this trough, with zonal flow
locally keeping conditions warm. Made no changes to the extended
forecast given the very high uncertainties.
Marine...winds/seas will continue to relax across the area so
this will lead to improving marine conditions. Will continue the
Small Craft Advisory through its 00z expiration as observation are at or close to Small Craft Advisory
conditions and gusty.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 76 60 79 62 / 0 - - -
Fort Lauderdale 76 63 79 66 / 0 - - -
Miami 76 64 80 66 / 0 - - -
Naples 74 56 79 60 / 0 - - -