Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
802 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2015
In general winds continue to slowly decrease...but regional
observations indicate that winds above 20 knots are likely across
the off shore Atlantic waters to the east of Palm Beach County
with a Small Craft Advisory continuing to 100 am EST Sunday.
Winds above 20 knots are also likely across the Gulf waters with a
Small Craft Advisory continuing.
There continues to be a high rip current risk along the Gulf Coast beaches
and was extended to 100 am EST Sunday.
It will be very sensitive to the current wind forecast verifying during
early Sunday morning...but wind chills around 40 to upper
thirties may be possible to the west of Lake Okeechobee and
northern interior Hendry County. In general wind chills along the
Atlantic and Collier County coastal zones in the lower 50s may be
possible and in the interior metropolitan areas to near the middle 40s.
Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2015/
high pressure building in behind a cold front will keep VFR
conditions through the taf period. Some middle level ceilings should
clear over the Gulf Coast over the next few hours. Winds will
continue out of the north through tomorrow morning then turn more
Previous discussion... /issued 548 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2015/
While hazardous marine conditions continue across the regional
waters...there was a change to the small craft advisories. The
latest regional observations indicate winds slowly decreasing
across the region. Winds in excess of 20 knots are mostly likely
confined to the off shore Atlantic waters to the east of Palm
Beach County...Lake Okeechobee and the off shore Gulf waters. For
the Atlantic waters...latest marine guidance indicates seas to
near 7 feet mainly in the off shore waters to the east of Palm
Beach County. For the Gulf waters...latest marine guidance
indicates seas 6 to 8 feet.
Given the change in marine guidance and regional winds expected to
continue slowly decreasing...the Small Craft Advisory for Lake
Okeechobee and the Atlantic waters to the east of Broward and
Miami Dade counties will expire at 7oo PM this evening. For the
Atlantic waters to the east of Palm Beach County...the Small Craft
Advisory expires at 100 am Sunday. For the Gulf waters...the Small
Craft Advisory for the near shore waters will expire at 100 am and
for the off shore waters at 400 am.
Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2015/
cold front has nearly cleared the area early this afternoon with
only very light showers along the leading edge across the Atlantic
waters. These showers should clear the area very shortly. A
cooler and drier air mass will then dominate South Florida through
the remainder of the weekend as high pressure builds across the
Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures Sunday are still expected to be
in the upper 60s across much of the area with low 70s confined
only to Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
The next chance for rain...and likely the only chance through the
next week...will be on Monday. Models depict an 500 mb shortwave
trough digging to the southeast and into northern Florida. This
will drag an associated weak cold front through the area Monday
around midday with a few showers possible. What showers do develop
should clear the area by Monday night.
Another lobe of upper energy is then expected to rotate around the
previous upper low bringing a reinforcing shot of cool dry air
into South Florida Tuesday into Wednesday with upper 60s to low
70s for high temperatures both days. These readings will be a good
6-8 degrees below normal. The subsequent high pressure should then
quickly push to the east and into the western Atlantic bringing
northeasterly to easterly flow back to South Florida. This will
edge temperatures up a bit closer to normal for Thursday into
Long range models show a couple of additional frontal passages
Saturday and early next week as a dynamic pattern looks to
seas are expected to slowly decrease across the area waters
tonight and into Sunday. Winds and seas will increase again to
advisory levels Monday in the wake of another frontal passage. A
few showers may also accompany this frontal passage. Northwest
winds at moderate to fresh levels are expected to then prevail
through midweek before becoming northeasterly to easterly Thursday
into Friday and decreasing slightly.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 50 69 53 73 / 0 0 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 52 70 55 74 / 0 0 10 20
Miami 53 71 55 75 / 0 0 10 20
Naples 51 66 58 71 / 0 0 10 20
Florida...high rip current risk until 1 am EST Sunday for flz069.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Sunday for amz650-670.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Sunday for gmz656-657.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EST Sunday for gmz676.