Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
154 am EDT Thursday Jul 31 2014


For the short term...terminal kapf assigned vcsh at 06z but
a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning with
lingering boundaries across the region. Will amend to thunderstorms in the vicinity if
necessary. Very brief periods of near IFR conditions may be
possible with occurrence of heavy showers or a thunderstorm. For
the East Coast terminals...mainly IFR conditions expected to
prevail through the early morning hours although a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms are possible and will amend if necessary.
East Coast sea breeze is expected late morning/early afternoon and
with deep tropical moisture lingering across the region
thunderstorms expected with all terminals assigned thunderstorms in the vicinity in 16-17z
time frame.



Previous discussion... /issued 753 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/

an upper level trough will hang around for one more day. This will
keep a stalled cold front just to the north of Lake Okeechobee
through tomorrow. This will allow for southwest winds aloft to
continue, although a little weaker. This weakening will allow the
Atlantic sea breeze to be somewhat stronger tomorrow, developing
in the late morning. This will also bring another round of showers
and thunderstorms to the Atlantic metropolitan areas tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions tonight as the weather continues to
quiet down after an active afternoon. Winds will become light and
variable tonight, and will become southeast by middle morning, except for
kapf, where they will remain westerly.

Previous discussion... /issued 241 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/

Short term...
showers/thunderstorms have not been as widespread as anticipated so far
this afternoon, probably due to earlier activity which has
temporarily stabilized the low levels. However, general pattern
still in place for the showers/thunderstorms to increase in coverage as
the afternoon progresses with the East Coast seabreeze pushing
inland and interacting with the prevailing SW flow in association
with the surface-700 mb trough covering much of central/southern
Florida, eastern Gulf of Mexico and northwest Bahamas. A few storms
could become strong with gusty winds and lightning the main

Tonight/Thursday...the low level trough will retreat westward as
Atlantic high pressure begins to nudge towards Florida. Southwest
winds tonight will transition to more of a southerly wind flow
and focus most afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms on Thursday over
the interior to the Lake Okeechobee region. Moisture will remain
high with no big changes to forecast.

Friday/Saturday...Atlantic ridge becomes more established across
the area with prevailing southeast winds. This will transition the
afternoon storms to the western half of the peninsula including
the Gulf Coast, with morning/night showers/thunderstorms East Coast.

Long term...
Sunday/Monday...models show a low level trough embedded in the
easterlies moving over and south of the peninsula, which would
enhance the shower/thunderstorm coverage area-wide. Afterwards, models
differ some on the strength of the western portion of subtropical
Atlantic ridge across our area. The GFS holds on to the ridge
while the European model (ecmwf) appears to weaken/erode the western edge of the
ridge. This would come into play as the tropical disturbance
currently 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands progresses west-
northwest as it approaches the eastern Caribbean. While NHC/wpc is
still indicating a possible northwest-north track north of the Greater
Antilles and east of the Bahamas, it is still way too early to
speculate on the future track/strength of this system. For the
time being, something to keep an eye on but no threat to South
Florida at this time.

light winds and seas outside of showers/thunderstorms will be the rule
through Thursday. Southeast winds become established by Friday and
lasting through the weekend, reaching 10-15 knots over the Atlantic
waters well offshore. This could bump US seas to about 3 feet in the
outer Gulf Stream, with 1-2 feet seas outside of showers/thunderstorms

the average temperature at Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International
Airport so far this month is at 84.6f. This currently ties the
record for the warmest July on record in Fort Lauderdale. In
Naples, the average low temperature of 76.4f so far this month
ranks in the top 5 warmest for July as far as low temperatures go.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 91 79 90 79 / 60 30 40 30
Fort Lauderdale 90 80 89 80 / 60 20 40 40
Miami 91 79 91 79 / 60 20 40 40
Naples 88 77 92 76 / 50 20 60 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...60/bd
long term....57/dg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations