Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
343 am EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
Short term (today-wednesday)...
the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic has built back to the west
this morning as a middle level trough that was over the Florida
Panhandle has lifted to the northeast. The surface trough which is
the remnants or Erika is now moving into North Florida while a
surface ridge builds west across South Florida near Lake Okeechobee.
Slightly drier air aloft will also move into the region this morning
with precipitable water falling below two inches. Thus, South Florida will
transition back to the typical late morning/afternoon diurnal cycle
showers and thunderstorms today with this trend continuing into
Wednesday. The steering flow will also veer from the south to the
southeast today so the highest probability of precipitation will also revert back to mostly
the interior. Therefore, with all of that said the Flood Watch will
be cancelled this morning for all of South Florida. There could
still be some isolated locations experience some possible localized
urban type street flooding with the heavier storms that do develop
which would mainly affect the Naples area and the western suburbs
along the East Coast metropolitan region.
Long term (thursday-sunday)...
in the extended period, a deep layer ridge will become established
over the Florida Peninsula with easterly steering flow across South
Florida. The gradient will not be terribly strong but most diurnal
activity will be over interior sections during the afternoon and
evening through the end of the week into the upcoming Holiday
high pressure will build back across the South Florida waters the
remainder of this week with east to southeast winds less than 15
knots. Seas will be 2-4 feet today in the Atlantic and 2 feet or
less over the Gulf waters with 2 feet or less all waters tonight
through the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 92 80 92 80 / 40 30 40 20
Fort Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 40 20 40 30
Miami 92 81 91 81 / 40 20 40 20
Naples 91 77 92 77 / 50 20 40 30