Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
325 am EDT Friday Jul 25 2014


Recent satellite imagery indicates some relatively drier air
across the northwest Bahamas with deep layered moisture and
associated cloudiness across the Florida Straits and the local
Gulf waters. The latest guidance indicates that the drier air will
likely remain to the east of the region while southerly flow
across the Florida Straits today will continue to advect deeper
moisture into the region through the day. The forecast precipitable water for
the Miami sounding location around 18z is about 1.7 inches.
Although there will be weak subsidence at the upper
levels...afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are still
expected across the peninsula today with the greatest coverage
expected in the western interior regions with mostly isolated
activity across the local waters.

There is likely some Saharan dust to the east of the Bahamas...but
latest guidance indicates it is diffuse and will not likely have
much impact on South Florida although the skies could be more hazy
than usual.

The aforementioned deeper moisture expected across the region
today is forecast to linger across the region on Saturday...with
forecast precipitable water values still lingering around 1.7 inches. Latest
guidance indicates some drier air moving into the Florida Straits
but is not forecast to move far enough north to hamper convection
across the peninsula on Saturday afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms expected with the greatest coverage expected in the
western interior.

By Sunday the drier air in The Straits is forecast to move north
with precipitable waters possibly dropping to around 1.2 inches with coverage of
showers across the peninsula greatly reduced with mainly scattered
activity around the lake region forecast.

The latest global model extended guidance indicates a cold front
could enter the southeastern states on Monday and could have
sufficient energy to move into north to central Florida on
Wednesday. Will have to see what the future guidance will do with
this scenario to say what...if any...impacts might be expected in
South Florida later next week.



Generally southeasterly winds 10 knots or less are forecast to
prevail across the regional waters today and through the upcoming
weekend...with regional seas 2 feet or less through this period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 90 77 90 78 / 30 10 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 91 81 91 80 / 20 10 20 10
Miami 90 79 90 80 / 30 10 20 10
Naples 91 76 91 76 / 20 10 30 10


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...57/dg
long term....60/bd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations