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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
350 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

the relatively drier air over South Florida which moved into the
area yesterday will gradually erode as moisture increases from
the south over the next few days...thanks to a shortwave moving
into the deep south, acting to return higher moisture residing
over the Florida Straits into South Florida. GPS met data shows
that moisture/precipitable water has been steadily on the increase today. This
trend will continue. The result will be an increasing chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms across South Florida the next few days
and through week's end. The change is already occurring with a
tstorm having developed over South Miami-Dade this afternoon. So
probability of precipitation will reflect an upward trend.

Highest probability of precipitation are centered on the Friday-Sat timeframe. This is when
precipitable water increases to over 2 inches while a strong high moves down from
the upper Midwest behind the large amplitude trough over the
eastern states. This will cause the surface and low level wind
fields to become northeasterly while increasing...providing for
coastal convergence setting up across Southeast Florida...and
given the deeper moisture expected to be in place...have likely
probability of precipitation Southeast Florida for Friday-Sat with chance probability of precipitation further inland and to the
Gulf Coast where convergence will be less...but the strengthening
winds will allow the showers to move across the peninsula during
the day.

Global models are in agreement in showing this strong high center
to move to the Middle Atlantic States by early next week. As it
does...gradient winds will strengthen further with windy
conditions possible along the Atlantic coast by early next week
with scattered quick passing showers. A classic fall South Florida
scenario. No doubt rip currents will become a high threat along
the Atlantic beaches by late this weekend and especially early
next week...with even beach erosion possible then. /Gregoria


Atlantic ridge axis will remain across the local waters over the
next few days, then late this week...strong high pressure will
build southward from the upper Midwest and will become centered
over the middle Atlantic by early next week. This will increase the
pressure gradient substantially across the local lower
pressure remains over the Caribbean. This tight pressure gradient will
lead to a strengthening northeast wind flow late this weekend and
especially early next week with seas in the Atlantic very likely
building to hazardous levels then. /Gregoria


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 88 74 87 / 20 40 50 30
Fort Lauderdale 76 88 76 86 / 20 50 40 40
Miami 76 88 77 87 / 20 50 30 40
Naples 73 87 74 88 / 10 30 10 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


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