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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
400 PM EST sun Feb 14 2016

..high risk of rip currents Atlantic beaches...
..Small Craft Advisory Atlantic waters this evening-Tuesday morning...

Discussion...
a rather benign weather pattern will prevail this week across
South Florida. The trough across the eastern Seaboard will
amplify Tuesday-Wednesday with a cold front forecast to move across South
Florida on Tuesday. The main shortwave energy though passes by
well to the north of the region. As such, only a brief bout of
showers is expected with this system.

Winds will be on the increase out of the east tonight-Monday,
leading to a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches
and hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic.

Shower chances will increase tonight-Tuesday as moisture increases
slowly. A few showers could develop and move onshore the Atlantic
coast tonight...then will be possible area wide Mon-Tue...though
still focused east coastal locales. A weak cold frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon will bring an end to any rain from west to
east. Thunderstorms are not expected due to lack of appreciable
instability and the displacement of the middle/upper level energy to
the north.

The amplified trough quickly lifts out away from the eastern
states with a middle/upper ridge building in over the Gulf of Mexico
with axis extending across the southeastern U.S. Late this week.
This will lead to dry conditions along with seasonal
temperatures. Fronts will remain off to the north with nice weather in
dry season style for South Florida! /Gregoria

&&

Aviation...
high pressure will keep the weather quiet and VFR through
tonight. It will weaken as a low pressure system begins to
develop to the west. This will keep the wind easterly through
tonight, and the turn the wind southeasterly tomorrow, as well as
bring some gusty conditions. Some shower activity will be
possible tomorrow as well, but is to uncertain for any mention in
the tafs at this time. /Si

&&

Marine...
winds will increase out of the east tonight-Monday to around 20
knots across the Atlantic. As such, a Small Craft Advisory was
issued for the Atlantic beginning middle evening continuing through
early Tuesday morning before winds relax. Sig waveheights will peak
mostly around 6 feet...but 7 feet possible by Monday off the Palm Beach
coast. No other marine hazards are expected. /Gregoria

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 65 78 69 82 / 20 30 50 30
Fort Lauderdale 67 78 71 84 / 20 30 40 40
Miami 65 79 70 82 / 20 30 50 40
Naples 57 79 63 78 / 0 10 40 20

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Monday evening for flz168-172-173.

Am...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 am EST Tuesday
for amz650-651-670-671.

GM...none.
&&

$$

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