Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
652 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
strong high pressure to the north will keep a strong easterly to
northeasterly flow over South Florida through the taf period.
While gusty conditions will calm overnight, the sustained wind
will still be between 10 and 15 kts. Tomorrow, the wind will
increase once again to around 15 kts, with gusts of around 25 kts.
While scattered clouds are in the tafs this evening, there may be period
of a broken deck. However, they are forecast to remain VFR through
the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
High pressure remains entrenched across the southeastern U.S. With
an enhanced pressure gradient and enhanced northeasterly winds
across the region. This is bringing patches of moisture and low
level stratocumuls across the Atlantic waters with just occasional
isolated showers embedded.
The pressure gradient is forecast to increase across South Florida
and adjacent waters tonight through at least late in the week.
High pressure is forecast to remain across the southeastern U.S
while a weak surface trough is forecast to slowly lift northward
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. These features will help to
strengthen and maintain the pressure gradient across the region
through late in the week.
For Wednesday through friday: high pressure will continue to
extend across the eastern Continental U.S. Although slowly changing
orientation tonight trough Friday as a cold front is forecast to
enter the northern and central Continental U.S. Wednesday into Thursday. In
addition an upper level trough is forecast to develop off the
southeastern Atlantic coastline...while remaining east of the
region...Wednesday through at least late in the week. This
forecast scenario will lead to very similar synoptic conditions
across the region for Wednesday through friday: an enhanced local
pressure gradient with strong winds across the Atlantic and Gulf
waters and patches of moisture and cloudiness will pass across the
region through this period. So the forecast for Wednesday through
Friday is isolated to scattered passing showers mainly affecting
the Atlantic waters and the Atlantic metropolitan areas from time to time
and breezy conditions along the Atlantic coastal zone.
Rip currents: a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic
waters will remain in place the remainder of the week into the
For the weekend: the aforementioned upper level low is forecast to
deepen over the weekend with a surface trough forecast to develop
north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Surface high pressure is
forecast to remain across the southeast U.S. Weather wise this
scenario would just maintain a chance of isolated to scattered
showers mainly across the Atlantic waters and the Atlantic metropolitan
areas. Enhanced winds could linger across the region into the
weekend under this scenario.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the local Gulf
Waters...Lake Okeechobee and the Atlantic waters including
Biscayne Bay. An enhanced pressure gradient resulting in winds in
excess of 20 knots...possibly as high as the 20 to 26 knot range
for periods starting tonight into Friday. Hazardous seas in excess
of 7 feet are forecast across the local Atlantic waters tonight
and could last into the upcoming weekend according to the latest
guidance. Persistent hazardous seas are not forecast across the
Gulf waters but periods of seas to near 7 feet are forecast
through at least into late week. Swell from 2 to 4 feet is
forecast to develop across the Atlantic waters east of Palm Beach
County Wednesday night into Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 70 80 76 81 / 20 20 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 72 80 75 80 / 20 20 30 30
Miami 70 81 72 81 / 20 20 30 30
Naples 63 84 66 86 / 20 20 10 10
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for amz610-630-650-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for gmz656-657-676.