Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Miami Florida
342 am EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
..corrected wording of last sentence in the short term...
Short term (tonight-monday)...
most of the short term forecast will remain dry as South Florida
is under a zonal flow pattern with surface high pressure extending
from the southeast states into the Atlantic. The surface ridge
will shift east into the Atlantic on Sunday as low pressure begins
to develop over the Mississippi Valley in response to a deepening
middle level trough. This trough will continue to further deepen
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday with cyclogenisis
beginning to take shape across the Florida Panhandle and Northern
Peninsula. Global models have been in very good agreement in
depicting this synoptic pattern taking shape but there have been
large discrepancies as to the timing and location especially how
this all will affect the weather for South Florida into the first
part of the upcoming week. The GFS and NAM have been the most
bullish the past few runs but have slowed the eastward progression
significantly on the 00z run with most ensemble members now
leaning towards a slower solution. Also, due to the delayed timing
of any weather there could be a lack of instability on Monday
although forecast soundings do show precipitable water increasing to over 1.5
inches by late in the day. So, certainly cannot rule out possible
convection firing up well ahead of any squall line that would move
across the region but middle level lapse rates will be limited. For
this reason, will lower probability of precipitation to scattered on Monday with a slight chance
for thunder and a line of storms still would be possible for
Monday night. Over the next couple of days and model runs, South
Florida weather forecast early next week will be completely
dependent on the timing of any organized line that could develop
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and if it could be maintained to
move through the region possibly Monday night.
Long term (tuesday-friday)...
the low will lift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday with a return
to zonal flow across South Florida through the remainder of the
week. The GFS does show a weak boundary remaining off the
Southeast Florida coast through the middle of next week but have
cut back on the probability of precipitation to only show slight chance along the
southeast coastal zones. Otherwise, the extended period looks like
a return to dry and warm conditions.
mostly tranquil seas are expected through the weekend as east to
southeast winds diminish to less than 15 knots. Seas over the
offshore Gulf waters may build to 5 to 7 feet early next week with
an increasing swell.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 79 67 83 73 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 80 71 82 76 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 80 69 84 75 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 82 63 85 71 / 10 10 10 10