Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
824 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Update...the Miami evening sounding (slow MO balloon release
video uploaded to our facebook Page...facebook.Com/nwsmiami) shows
a dry and stable airmass in place across South Florida. Precipitable water is at
1.08 inches...fairly dry all around. Kamx radar showing a few
sprinkles off the Miami-Dade coast...but nothing of consequence.
So will maintain a dry forecast overnight. /Gregoria
Previous discussion... /issued 640 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
southeast winds 5-10 knots tonight. High pressure will weaken on
Thursday as a cold front moves into northern Florida. Gulf Coast
sea breeze is forecast to move inland...with southwesterly winds
forecast at kapf in the afternoon. A few showers are possible
across the interior on the sea breeze boundaries...but should
remain well away from the taf sites. Southeast winds at the East
Coast taf sites will increase to 10-15 knots and then begin to
diminish near the end of the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
a weak cold front approaches Thursday night and Friday...then
stalls over the weekend...giving a chance for showers but little
in the way of cooler temperatures.
Short term (tonight-Friday night)...
another warm day occurring in South Florida...with temperatures in
the low 80s. Southeast flow prevails...but Gulf sea breeze has
intruded along the immediate coast. With pressure gradient
increasing slightly overnight...winds shouldnt calm as much as
previous nights...and threat for fog is somewhat less.
Still...expect patchy fog over western sections of South Florida
after midnight. Hipres that has dominated Florida this week will
weaken and move east Thursday...as a cold front enters North
Florida. This front will weaken as it passes through central
Florida Thursday night...then stall over South Florida Friday. By
Friday...a few showers are possible.
Long term (saturday-wednesday)...
the frontal boundary will remain stalled over South Florida this
weekend...then slow retreat northward early next week. Little in
the way of cooler/drier air will accompany the feature.
Thus...expect low shower chances with continued above normal
temperatures through the long range.
mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail the remaining afternoon
hours into the early morning hours on Thursday. Patchy fog is
expected during the early morning hours on Thursday...but mainly
expected to impact the interior and western peninsula with
terminal kapf possibly experiencing occasional periods of fog
around 10z to 12z Thursday morning.
light/moderate southeast winds expected through Thursday night.
Then...frontal boundary sags southward into the region and stall.
Northerly flow is possible Friday and Saturday...before prevailing
southeast flow returns by next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 72 85 70 83 / 0 0 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 73 83 72 82 / 0 0 10 20
Miami 72 85 70 84 / 0 0 0 20
Naples 67 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 20