Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1023 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
no major adjustments to the forecast with this update. Did bring
probability of precipitation down some across the County Warning Area as the precipitation coverage has dwindled
this morning, which looks well represented in the hrrr. The hrrr
has it staying fairly quiet most of the day, with a few stray
showers moving onshore form the Atlantic. It does show there may
be a pickup in activity this evening, but still just passing
Previous discussion... /issued 649 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
VFR conditions maintained through the period...although brief
times of ceiling/visibility restrictions possible in and near scattered
rain showers expected through 0-3z. East-northeast wind 15-25 knots will prevail through
sunset...with gusts over 30 knots quite possible...especially in some of
the heavier showers. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 341 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015/
a persistent surface ridge centered along the US East Coast combined
with a remnant cold front/surface trough over the Greater Antilles
will combine to produce strong easterly winds over South Florida
through the weekend. At times...scattered showers will move into
eastern portions of the region from the Atlantic. Temperatures
will be above average.
Short term /Thanksgiving through Saturday/...
high pressure axis paralleling the US Atlantic coast will remain
generally stationary...though the feature will gradually weaken
into the weekend. Surface lopres trough over Cuba will also remain in
place. The significant pressure gradient between these two will be
greatest over Florida Peninsula...and will be responsible for
prolonged easterly winds at speeds of 15-25 knots through the short
term. For the Atlantic coast...this will prolong the high risk for
rip currents...and...coupled with astronomical high tides...pose a
minor coastal flood threat. A coastal flood statement for minor
tidal inundation is in effect through Friday.
Moisture will not be significant...but deep enough near-surface
moisture exists for scattered showers at times across the
Atlantic...spreading into the Atlantic coast urban areas at times.
Western areas will remain dry.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as parent ulvl lopres drifts south from Bahamas into Caribbean
and weakens...stationary surface lopres trough along Cuba will become
diffuse and gradually dissipate. At same time...surface ridge along
East Coast will weaken. The result will be loosening of pressure
gradient and thus relaxation of winds over South Florida early
next week. Late Sunday into Monday...a cold front will reach North
Florida...then stall out into the middle of next week. Still...a
high risk for rip currents will continue through the weekend and
possible into the early part of the workweek along Atlantic
beaches. Low chance showers remains in forecast for eastern
zones...though significant rainfall accumulation is not anticipated.
Temperatures remain above average...especially minima which will
be 5-10 degrees above normal for early Dec. Generally maxima will
reach l80s with minima holding in the u60s to m70s.
small craft adzy has been extended...xcpt for lake...through
Friday as 20-25 knots winds appear quite like to prevail out of the
east. Additionally...seas of 8 to 10 feet will persist in Atlantic
waters. Rough conditions...aided by 4-5 swell...could lead to some
beach erosion...particularly along Palm Beach County
coast...where its not out of the question a high surf advisory
will be warranted. Winds and seas may persist at hazardous levels
through the weekend...particularly for the Atlantic.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 81 73 81 70 / 20 30 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 80 72 81 70 / 20 20 20 10
Miami 82 71 81 70 / 20 20 20 10
Naples 85 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz168-172-173.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for amz630-650-651-
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Friday for amz610.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for gmz656-657-676.