Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
251 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
scattered showers and a few storms continue to develop across the
region and move quickly to the east this afternoon. The main
concern for storms will be wind and cloud-to-ground lightning.
Prefrontal trough will continue to push south overnight...with
deep moisture returning to the area. Showers and storms are
forecast to move into the Gulf Coast late tonight and into the
morning hours on Wednesday...with scattered to numerous showers
and storms across the rest of the region throughout the day.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal due to the cloud
cover and rainfall on Wednesday.
The trough will stall across the region...and the flow will begin
to shift more to the south and southeast through the end of the
week and into the weekend. High moisture will remain across South
Florida Thursday through the weekend...with good chances of
showers and storms each day. Global models show an inverted
trough moving across South Florida from southeast to northwest over the upcoming
weekend. The inverted trough this weekend would only serve to
enhance shower and tstorm activity. 500 mb temperatures never cool
dramatically so it looks as though the main tstorm impacts through
the weekend will be lightning strikes and localized heavy
widely scattered storms moved through kmia/kopf earlier today but
overall coverage is unimpressive. Still waiting for the indication of
southeast or south-southeast wind along the Atlantic coast/sea breeze that should
initiate more coverage perhaps late day. A few more storms are now
developing inland and could throw outflows which also serve as a
trigger. Will begrudgingly hold thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs...but may need to be
removed if storms are hesitant to form over the next few hours.
Weak boundary across northern Florida shoving another infusion of
middle level moisture south should lead to better coverage tomorrow
afternoon. Also...westerly flow overnight may allow some showers
or storms over the Gulf coastal waters to affect kapf early
wind speeds will remain below 15 knots with seas generally at 2 feet
or less. Winds/seas will be higher in and near and an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 76 91 76 90 / 30 60 40 60
Fort Lauderdale 79 91 78 90 / 20 60 40 60
Miami 79 91 78 90 / 20 60 40 60
Naples 78 89 78 89 / 50 50 20 30