Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
227 PM EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
a large area of high pressure over the southeastern United States
will continue to move east over the Atlantic through Saturday.
This will allow for the dry air to remain in place. As the high
moves over the Atlantic, winds will begin to shift to the east and
they will decrease to 5 to 10 miles per hour by Saturday morning. By the
second half of the weekend a trough of low pressure will move into
the central Gulf of Mexico which will turn the winds to a more
southerly direction. This southerly flow will allow for an
increase in low level moisture across South Florida introdcing a
slight chance of showers across the region on Sunday.
the trough will continue to deepen and move east across northern
Florida early next week. This will push a strong cold front across
South Florida Monday afternoon into Monday night. Out ahead of the
front winds will shift to a southwesterly direction and it will
become breezy as well. This will usher in deep tropical moisture
into the region, which will allow for showers and thunderstorms
to develop Monday afternoon into Monday night. Latest computer
model guidance still suggests that there will be enough
instability to support the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Monday afternoon and evening. Once
the cold front passes through the region on Monday night, high
pressure will build back into the region behind it bringing drier
air along with it for the middle of next week.
Scattered cumulus continue to stream across the East Coast sites under
gusty easterly flow. Winds will gradually turn more to the east-
southeast through the night and diminish slightly before
increasing to around 10 knots again during the day tomorrow.
the winds will continue to swing to an easterly direction tonight
and the speeds will be decreasing from breezy conditions to less
than 15 knots by tonight. This will allow for the seas in the
Atlantic waters to slowly fall from 7 feet this evening to 6 later
The winds will continue to decrease to less than 10 knots by
Saturday while remaining from the east...before swinging to a
southerly direction on Sunday and increasing to at least breezy
conditions. This will keep the seas below 7 feet in both the
Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida for Saturday and Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 63 80 68 82 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Lauderdale 66 80 71 82 / 0 0 0 10
Miami 65 81 70 83 / 0 0 0 10
Naples 58 83 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-