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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
303 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

scattered to numerous showers and storms continue to develop along
the sea breeze boundaries and move off to the north this
afternoon...leaving the coastal areas mostly dry. A few showers
and storms may linger across the lake region into the evening
hours before dissipating. Temperatures overnight will be warm with
lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Deep layered ridge will continue to build across South Florida
into the weekend. A subtle weakness along the periphery of the
ridge will move northeast just west of South Florida. This will
keep precipitable waters around 2 inches on Friday...and enhance overall
instability slightly. Sea breeze boundaries will again initiate
convection...with scattered to numerous showers and storms across
the interior. Much drier low/middle level air will begin to work its
way into the region from the southeast Saturday and Sunday as the
ridge builds over South Florida. Precipitable waters are forecast to fall to
below 1.5 inches across most of the region on Sunday...or around 2
Standard deviations below normal for the East Coast.

Early next anomalously strong upper level trough will
deepen over the eastern Continental U.S.. the associated cold front will
approach northernmost Florida as early as Monday...and may
gradually inch toward central Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. What
appears most likely for South Florida is a veering of overall
winds to the southwest. This would result in a bit warmer
temperatures for the eastern well as the focus of
showers and thunderstorms shifting from the interior to closer to
the East Coast. The progress of the front and the potential for
development of a surface trough along the East Coast of Florida
will need to be this could significantly increase
probability of precipitation as middle-week approaches.


the steering flow has been weak enough that the convection
developing along the East Coast slower to clear the terminals than
previous thinking so placed thunderstorms in the vicinity until 21z with a temporary
fluctuation of the wind with outflow boundaries propagating back
towards the east. The opposite is true along the West Coast where
that convection began earlier and has now appeared to clear the
kapf terminal. Surface wind will be l/v after 00z this evening with
similar conditions expected on Friday.


good boating conditions will prevail into the weekend...outside
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Generally...winds will be
southeast at 10 kts or so with seas below 2 feet. Locally rough seas
may be caused by gusty winds associated with stronger convection.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 90 77 90 / 10 30 10 30
Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 10 20 10 20
Miami 79 90 79 90 / 10 30 10 20
Naples 77 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 30


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...84/AK
long term....23/sk

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