Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
338 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016

..very active weather pattern for this weekend over South Florida...
..Cold temperatures possible Sunday night over South Florida...

Short term...
a frontal boundary located over the Florida Straits will move
back northward as a warm front tonight and into South Florida on
Saturday. Low pressure will then develop along the front just off
the South Florida coast Saturday evening and move quickly to the
northeast towards the Middle Atlantic States Saturday night into
Sunday. This will allow moisture to start to return to the area
late tonight and continue to work into the area on Saturday from
the south. Therefore...a slight chance of probability of precipitation will be in place
along the East Coast metropolitan areas of South Florida before
increasing across all of South Florida on Saturday. Probability of precipitation will then
be in the likely to categorical range across South Florida
Saturday evening before decreasing Saturday night from west to
east.

At this time...the most unstable air associated with the low will
be over the Atlantic waters. This will allow for a few storms to
develop over the Atlantic waters Saturday night. However...if the
low is closer to South Florida than forecast then thunder might
have to be added for portions of South Florida for Saturday night
in later updates.

Drier air will then work into South Florida from the north for
Sunday on the northwest winds behind the departing low pressure.
Therefore...the weather will be dry but breezy to windy.

Highs this weekend will be in the 70s on Saturday before dropping
into the 60s for Sunday. Lows will gradually cool this weekend
with temperatures tonight in the 50s except 60s East Coast metropolitan areas.
Lows on Saturday night will be in the 50s except upper 40s west of
Lake Okeechobee...and by Sunday night the lows will be in the 40s
except upper 30s west of Lake Okeechobee. Wind chills will also be
a factor for Sunday night over South Florida...as winds will be 10
to 15 miles per hour with the metropolitan areas being in the 15 to 20 miles per hour range.
This will allow for the wind chills to be around 40 over most of
South Florida...except middle to upper 30s around Lake Okeechobee and
metropolitan Palm Beach areas.



Long term...
the drier air will not last long over South Florida...as the winds
will shift quickly to a southwest direction ahead of another cold
front that will be moving through South Florida on Tuesday. There
could be a few showers with the passage of the front along the
West Coast of South Florida while rest of South Florida should
remain dry.

High pressure will then build into the Florida Peninsula for the
middle to end of next week. This will keep the dry and pleasant
weather in place over South Florida during this time frame.

&&

Marine...
the winds will be decreasing from around 20 knots this evening to
less than 10 knots by Saturday morning and it will swing from a
northeast direction to an easterly direction. The winds will then
increase quickly to 20 to 25 knots Saturday night and become
northwest as the low strengthens over the Atlantic waters. The
northwest winds will continue at 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to
gale force on Sunday over all of the South Florida waters. The
seas will fall below 6 feet in the Gulf waters by midnight tonight
and in the Atlantic waters by Saturday morning. However...the seas
will then build quickly Saturday night and by Sunday they will be
8 to 10 feet in the Atlantic waters and 9 to 11 feet in the
offshore Gulf waters. Therefore...the Small Craft Advisory will continue for all of
the South Florida waters through midnight and until Saturday
morning for the Atlantic waters. The Small Craft Advisory will more likely come
back to all of South Florida waters sometime Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 63 76 52 63 / 20 50 80 10
Fort Lauderdale 64 77 55 64 / 20 60 80 10
Miami 64 77 56 65 / 20 60 80 10
Naples 54 72 54 61 / 10 40 50 10

&&

Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through Saturday evening for flz168-172-
173.

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Saturday for amz610-630.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Saturday for amz650-651-670-
671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Saturday for gmz656-657-676.

&&

$$

Short term...54/bnb
long term....54/bnb

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations