Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1254 am EST sun Feb 1 2015
Light to moderate easterly flow will steadily veer to the southeast
through the period as high pressure builds eastward over the
western Atlantic and a warm front lifts northward over the western Gulf
of Mexico. Gusts into the 20-25 knots range will be expected through
the morning and afteroon hours today. A sufficient amount of boundary
layer moisture will continue to support the scattered/broken conditions
over the East Coast terminals with bases remaining in the 4-5 kft
Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2015/
VFR conditions should dominate the remainder of the
weekend...although 4-5kft ceilings will generally prevail. East-northeast winds
around 10 kts tonight will turn southeast and gust to 20 knots
by middle-morning Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2015/
Short term (tonight-Monday night)...
South Florida will briefly return to a zonal flow aloft as the upper
flow remains progressive across the North America continent. Surface
high pressure currently centered near the Carolinas will shift
east into the Atlantic through Sunday with a continued
modification to the South Florida airmass. A strong trough will
deepen into the southern U.S. On Sunday into Monday with a cold
front moving into North Florida on Monday and across South Florida
Monday night. South Florida will remain under the influence of
mostly zonal flow and thus the cold front will lack the push and
only make into the Florida Straits where it will stall. Due to the
moistening flow at the low levels, there will be an increasing
trend for some fog over the interior especially by Sunday night.
At this time, will leave out mention of fog for tonight but add
patchy fog across the interior on Sunday night. In addition, ahead
of the front on Monday afternoon temperatures will likely approach
the lower 80s over much of the interior and East Coast metropolitan area
where the dominating low level flow will be south to southwest.
There could be a couple of showers develop ahead of and along the
front, but it will remain mostly dry as forecast soundings only
show precipitable water at around 1.25-1.4" and then quickly dropping once again
as drier filters in the wake of the frontal passage with a few
degrees of cooling for Monday night.
Long term (tuesday-saturday)...
during the extended period, a southern stream trough will be located
over north-central Mexico on Tuesday and then phasing in with
another northern stream trough tracking across the Gulf coastal
region through mid-week. These two systems will induce surface
pressure to lower across the northern Gulf of Mexico with another
cold front approaching South Florida late in the week. Both the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) depict this synoptic flow but the European model (ecmwf) is much farther
to the south and faster bringing the front across the region
during the day on Thursday while the GFS is delayed until Thursday
night. Also, it remains uncertain as to the amount of rainfall to
be expected depending on the timing and location of the surface
low pressure area. At any rate, it does appear that there will
again be some slight cooling for Friday and Saturday with drier
rough marine conditions will subside slightly this evening but
with a east-northeast wind of 15-20 knots continuing for much of the weekend
and early next week, seas over the Atlantic will be up to 6 feet.
Another cold front will move across the marine areas Monday night
so ahead of the front on Monday afternoon, wind will veer to the
southwest and then shift to the northwest after frontal passage.
High pressure will build behind the front with the high shifting
east into the Atlantic through the middle of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 76 70 82 61 / 10 10 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 75 68 81 61 / 10 20 20 10
Miami 75 68 81 63 / 10 10 20 10
Naples 77 64 77 54 / 0 0 20 10
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.