Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1213 am EST sun Dec 28 2014
the winds will be light and variable early this morning over the
taf sites before increasing from the easterly direction at 5 to 10
knots after 13z today. The only exception to this is for kapf taf
site where the winds will become westerly after 18z due to the
West Coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland. The ceiling
and visible will also remain in the VFR conditions for most of the taf
sites...except for kapf where it could fall down into the MVFR
conditions early this morning due to fog development.
Previous discussion... /issued 636 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2014/
Winds will be more easterly which will help keep the low ceilings in
the interior and West Coast. Sref again showing decent probs of
IFR visible and some ceiling overnight, but looks to be away from the
airports with the exception of apf and possibly pbi. Conditions are
not nearly as favorable as last night, without the numerous
coastal showers of Friday along the East Coast. However, fair
confidence at apf with lamp showing restrictions. Improvement at
apf Sunday morning could be slow again. Perhaps more broken ceilings
along the East Coast Sunday afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 218 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2014/
Short term (tonight-Monday night)...
a deep layer ridge will continue to build across South Florida
through the weekend keeping the region warm and dry. The low levels
will however remain moist and with the high pressure in place along
with a clearing sky, there is a high likelihood for some localized
dense fog to form each night over the interior. The short range
ensemble (sref) is showing a 60-70% chance of visibility lower than
one mile over much of the interior both tonight and again Sunday
night. During the day on Monday, a southern stream middle level trough
will move across the southeast states. This will weaken the high
pressure and it will retreat back to the Caribbean allowing a weak
cold front to move into north-central Florida late Monday night. Any
shower active associated with this system will remain north of
our area through the short term period.
Long term (tuesday-saturday)...
the aforementioned cold front will move into South Florida Tuesday
night but becoming rapidly diffuse. So maybe an increase in cloud
cover but rainfall will remain limited. The ridge will build back
across South Florida through the end of the week and early next
weekend so it is looking like an extended range of above normal
temperatures and low rain chances.
boating conditions will remain benign through the first part of
the weekend. A long period small northeast swell will begin to
affect the Atlantic waters mainly off the Palm Beach County coast
Saturday night and continue through Monday. The wind will be
southeast at less than 15 knots through early next week veering to
the south to southwest on Tuesday as a weak cold front moves to
near Lake Okeechobee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 70 82 69 80 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 72 82 70 79 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 71 83 69 81 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 66 82 66 77 / 10 10 10 10