Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1003 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014
moderate southeast flow well established this morning ahead of deepening
low pressure over the Mississippi Valley. This will make for a
dry, breezy and warm day across South Florida. Made minor, upward
adjustment to wind and temperatures over land this afternoon to
be more in line with latest MOS guidance.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night's expected conditions in association
with the approaching system still look on track based on latest
model guidance. Additional information to be included in the afternoon
forecast package discussion. /Molleda
Previous discussion... /issued 749 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014/
The local pressure gradient and the winds across the region will
increase around the 14-15z time frame with southeast winds in the
15 to 20 knot range forecast across the terminals. By 00z the
pressure gradient is forecast to relax with southeast winds around
10 knots. Mainly VFR conditions expected to persist across all
South Florida terminals this morning and into the evening hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 307 am EDT sun Mar 16 2014/
Short term (today-tuesday)...
one more dry day is in store before moisture returns to begin the
work week. South Florida remains under the influence of zonal flow
this morning as a strong middle level trough begins to deepen into
the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The surface high
pressure ridge across central Florida this morning will shift
south into the Florida Straits by late this afternoon as strong
low pressure moves into northern Mississippi/northern Alabama. By
early Monday, the middle/upper level trough will continue to deepen
to the Gulf Coast region with its associated cold front moving
into North Florida. Global models have come more in agreement that
this system will not deepen as far to the south as once was
suggested and this places South Florida only a low risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, an extensive line of thunderstorms will
develop over the central Gulf of Mexico with this line approaching
the West Coast of the peninsula by early Monday. While the bulk of
the upper dynamics will remain across north/central Florida, the
line will be extensive enough that it is likely to maintain itself
and move across South Florida late Monday into early Tuesday.
There should also be enough destabilization ahead of the main line
on Monday afternoon to support a few storms developing across
South Florida and few of these could become strong with the main
impact being occasional lightning strikes and strong gusty winds
to around 50 miles per hour. The NAM, GFS and European model (ecmwf) show the front extending
south of the surface low pressure moving off the southeast coast
by early Tuesday with the rain threat ending during the afternoon.
Long term (wednesday-saturday)...
the middle level trough will have moved east of the peninsula by
Wednesday with a return to zonal flow across South Florida. This
trend will then continue into the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend to a return to a dry forecast. Not much cooling is
foreseen with the front on Tuesday as surface high pressure
building behind the front will rapidly shift east into the
southeast wind will be increasing today as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to the developing low pressure to the north.
Seas will briefly deteriorate on Monday night and Tuesday as the
front moves across the local waters but then quickly subside as
the gradient again weakens through the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 82 73 83 74 / 0 10 40 60
Fort Lauderdale 81 75 83 76 / 0 10 30 50
Miami 82 74 84 76 / 0 10 30 50
Naples 84 72 82 74 / 0 20 40 70