Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
732 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
back edge of broken/overcast clouds between 3000 and 5000 feet associated
with low pressure over western Bahamas is currently close to the East
Coast terminal sites and should clear the coast between 03z-05z.
Conditions remaining VFR despite the clouds and light showers.
Few/scattered clouds 3000-4000 feet expected for Saturday. Winds this
evening NE 15-20 knots becoming more north towards daybreak and
continuing through Saturday. /Molleda
Previous discussion... /issued 325 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
The major synoptic features influencing the region include an upper level
trough building into the eastern Gulf...a surface low extending
across the Florida Straits eastward into the northwest Bahamas and
a frontal boundary across the Florida Straits. With strong
northeasterly winds across the region...over-running across the
frontal boundary continues to generate shower activity across the
Atlantic waters and South Florida...with most of the showers
concentrated across Biscayne Bay and southeast Miami Dade County.
The general consensus of the guidance is for a drying trend over
night into Saturday morning. The combination of middle to upper
level drier air starting to move into the region...the boundary
across The Straits forecast to move southeastward and high
pressure beginning to build into the southeast should all
contribute to the drying trend. The guidance...including the
latest hrrr run...seemed a little too fast in the drying trend and
a chance of showers across the Atlantic waters and the southeast
portions of the peninsula is indicated in the forecast this
evening and tonight. But by 12z Saturday only isolated showers are
indicated across the southern Atlantic waters with no showers for
The high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic coast beaches has been
extended through 12z Saturday with hazardous seas across the
Atlantic waters expected to continue through at least 12z
Saturday and could linger a bit longer...may have to adjust the
rip current risk with updated forecast and conditions on
High pressure and stable weather conditions are forecast to
prevail Saturday through the early part of next week with mainly
climatological temperatures expected.
The Small Craft Advisory across the Atlantic and Gulf waters is through
12z Saturday. For the Gulf waters...the Small Craft Advisory is mainly for winds
above 20 knots...in the 20 to 22 knot range...and mainly in the
southern portion of the off shore waters and the near shore waters
west of Mainland Monroe County. There is some uncertainty in the
wind forecast...but regional observations indicate that winds in
excess of 20 knots are observed across portions of the Florida
Keys and west of Key West.
For the Atlantic waters...regional winds in excess of 20 knots are noted
the Atlantic waters...including Biscayne Bay. In addition seas
above advisory levels are forecast to stay above advisory levels
through at least 12z Saturday and forecast to slowly subside
As conditions continue to change over the next 12 to 24 hours...the small
craft advisories may have to be adjusted accordingly.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 71 81 68 81 / 10 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 73 81 70 82 / 20 10 10 10
Miami 72 82 68 83 / 20 10 0 10
Naples 65 81 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
Florida...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for flz173.
High rip current risk through Saturday morning for flz168-172-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for amz630-650-651-
High rip current risk through Saturday morning for amz630.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Saturday for gmz656-657-676.