Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
754 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015
the trough that was associated with the remnants of Erika
is located over from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northeast into
central Florida. The trough will continue to move northwest tonight
away from South Florida which should allow for the winds to relax to
less than 5 miles per hour over the Mainland area late this evening into
tonight. This in turn should allow for more subsidence over South
Florida tonight leading to less coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. However...the precipitable water values will still remain around 2
inches tonight over South Florida which should help to generate some
showers and thunderstorm overnight. The best coverage should be over
the West Coast metropolitan areas as this area is closer to the trough. The
high precipitable water values will also lead to heavy rainfall with any showers
or thunderstorms that do develop. Therefore...the Flood Watch will
remain in place through tonight for South Florida.
East Coast has been relatively dry for last few hours...so removed
tempo groups and carried vcsh through 15z...replaced by thunderstorms in the vicinity
thereafter. At some point this evening may be able to remove vcsh
altogether over the overnight...and also may eventually need
prob30/tempo groups during the day Monday. For Naples...widespread
convection ongoing...so prevail thunderstorms and rain for several hours...followed
by tempo group...then thunderstorms in the vicinity through remainder of taf period. Brief
restrictions possible all terminals in precipitation...but more extended visibility
restrictions in ts/rain likely in Naples...at least through 6z. Southeast
winds near 5 knots overnight...then increasing to 10-15 knots by midday
Monday. Naples will see Gulf Breeze from south-southwest during afternoon.
winds over the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters have fallen below
20 knots early this evening...as the winds over the Gulf waters
and Biscayne Bay have fallen below 15 knots. The winds should
continue to decrease through the overnight hours and should be
below 15 knots in all of the local waters by Monday morning. The
seas in the Atlantic waters have also fallen below 6 feet and
should remain below 6 feet tonight with the Gulf seas remain below
Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM EDT sun Aug 30 2015/
remnants of Erika will continue to move to the northwest through
South Florida tonight keeping a southerly wind flow over the area.
Precipitable water values will also remain in the 2 to 2.2 inch range over South
Florida tonight leading to the possibility of heavy rainfall with
the showers and thunderstorms. Therefore...the Flood Watch will
remain in place over South Florida for tonight.
Strong southeast winds warrant continuation of high risk for rip
currents along Atlantic beaches through tonight.
The remnants of Erika will then move into central Florida on
Monday before moving north into northern Florida on
Tuesday...as high pressure starts to build into South Florida
from the western Atlantic waters. This will allow for the steering
flow to swing from a southerly direction on Monday to more of an
easterly direction on Tuesday over South Florida. This weather
pattern will keep the deep tropical moisture in place over South
Florida on Monday before some drier air works into the area on
Tuesday from the Atlantic waters. Therefore...probability of precipitation will remain
high for Monday before returning to more of a scattered range on
Tuesday except numerous over the interior areas.
the remnants of Erika should weaken during the middle to end of the
week over the southeastern United States...as high pressure over
the western Atlantic waters continue to build into the Florida
Peninsula. This will keep South Florida in a easterly wind flow
for the second half of this week allowing for both the east and
West Coast sea breezes to develop and push inland. Therefore...the
highest probability of precipitation will be in the scattered to numerous range each day
with the highest probability of precipitation over the interior areas.
a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Atlantic waters until
0z this evening. The winds be southerly tonight into Monday over
South Florida waters...as the wind speeds will be decreasing from
around 20 knots late this afternoon to less than 15 knots by
Monday. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to subside from 6
feet this afternoon to less than 5 knots by tonight. The Gulf seas
will be less than 6 feet tonight into Monday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 77 91 78 92 / 30 50 30 40
Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 91 / 30 50 30 40
Miami 78 90 79 92 / 30 60 40 40
Naples 77 90 79 91 / 70 60 40 50
Florida...Flood Watch through Monday morning for flz063-066>075-168-
High rip current risk through Monday morning for flz168-172-173.