Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
341 PM EST Wednesday Dec 4 2013
Discussion...as Arctic air invades the north central states,
model consensus shows this frigid airmass plunging south into
Texas before being deflected northeast, as a ridge of high
pressure builds over South Florida. In other words, this airmass
will have no effect on South Florida weather. So while much of
the central and eastern U.S. Will be dealing with winter's wrath,
South Florida will remain warm...with temperatures actually above seasonal
averages. Highs each day will reach into the lower to middle 80s
with lows around 70f East Coast to the 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints
will remain in the 60s. Rain chances are negligible as deep
layered mean moisture will remain limited.
Surface moisture has increased since yesterday...and with clearing
skies over the area tonight, patchy fog is possible over the
Lake Okeechobee region. This is possible tomorrow night as well.
MOS guidance reflects this potential at pgd. So added patchy fog
to the forecast there. Am expecting any fog to remain over the
interior...but will have to watch for the fog potential towards
Naples due to a light easterly wind flow in place.
Tidal flooding has not been reported today and The Tides are
slowly lowering along with lesser positive departures from
predicted, so we do not foresee any other flooding issues arising
with this fading perigee.
Marine...east-southeast winds of 10-15 knots with seas of 4 feet or less will
prevail through Friday. Winds will increase a bit late Friday and
into the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient increases.
However, winds are forecast to remain below advisory levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 69 82 72 81 / - - - -
Fort Lauderdale 72 82 74 82 / - - - -
Miami 71 83 73 83 / - - - -
Naples 66 86 67 84 / - - 10 -