Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
804 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015
Most of the thunderstorms across the peninsula have dissipated
but there are still a few lingering thunderstorms to the west of
Lake Okeechobee. The forecast leaves in a chance of thunderstorms
early this evening. With multiple outflow boundaries still interacting
across the peninsula there is still a chance of a few evening
thunderstorms...most likely in the western interior and west
peninsula. Over night a clearing trend is expected. Except for the
changes to the short term forecast...no other changes to the
current forecast package.
Previous discussion... /issued 745 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015/
The very active convection in the interior peninsula earlier this
evening has dissipated with only a few lingering thunderstorms
just west of Lake Okeechobee. With multiple outflow boundaries
still lingering across the peninsula...short term wind forecast
is uncertain but westerly winds could affect the East Coast
terminals over the next hour or so then becoming variable. Mainly
VFR conditions expected this evening and into the early morning
hours on Saturday. Easterly winds forecast to build back into the
region by middle-morning Saturday.
Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM EDT Friday may 22 2015/
Life-threatening rip currents developing Atlantic beaches this
the weather element having potentially the highest impact across
our service area through the Holiday weekend will be an east wind.
Sounds innocent? But it is not. A strengthening easterly wind,
especially by Sunday and Memorial Day, will lead to the
development of life-threatening rip currents along the Atlantic
beaches. Given the crowds expected at the beaches this Holiday
weekend...have issued an early statement to highlight a high risk
of rip currents...effective for the Palm Beach, Broward, and
Miami-Dade beaches from Saturday evening through Tuesday.
It will be a dangerous combination of nicer beach weather while at
the same time the surf becomes life-threatening. We encourage our
partners to highlight this risk as well as safety messages -- if
you swim, always swim in front of a lifeguard. Here's hoping we
have a safe Memorial Day weekend at our beaches!
As far as thunderstorm potential this Holiday weekend...moisture
and instability will remain high this afternoon as well as
Saturday, then moisture decreases sun-Mon...and more significantlyby
the middle part of next week (per a consensus of the global
models) as dry air moves into Florida around a strong high over
the Atlantic. Wind flow will become easterly by tomorrow...and
this will focus thunderstorms over the interior to the Gulf Coast
Threat for intense thunderstorms exists this afternoon over the
interior and possibly again across the interior and Gulf Coast on
Saturday afternoon...with the threats being frequent lightning,
strong wind gusts and hail.
Temperatures/humidity get tapped down a tad during the middle part of
next week as that dry air moves in from the east on a refreshing
breeze. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) show dewpoints dropping back into the
60s Tue-Thu...likely the last "fresh" gasp before the Summer
sauna sets in! /Gregoria
Marine...winds will become easterly this weekend and be on the
increase...into the 15-20 knots range by sun-Mon. This will lead to
rough marine conditions along with building seas of 4-5 feet across
the Atlantic waters.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 75 88 79 87 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 77 87 78 87 / 20 20 20 30
Miami 76 89 77 87 / 20 20 20 30
Naples 74 93 72 93 / 50 60 30 50
Florida...high rip current risk from Saturday evening through Tuesday
afternoon for flz168-172-173.