Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
258 PM EDT Tuesday may 5 2015
low pressure will continue to push north and away from the area
this week...leading to gradually declining rain chances.
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
surface lopres trough over northern Bahamas had flare up of convection near
it this afternoon. NHC presently gives system 20 percent chance of
tropical/subtropical development in 48 hours, 40 percent within 5
days. The low will continue to move north and away from South
Florida over the next several days...so additional impacts will
mainly be limited to marine areas in the form of elevated seas.
Although locally heavy rainfall cant completely be ruled
out...activity will be more diurnally based and much less
widespread than today. The associated upper-level low /along with
cool temperatures aloft/ will be over the region...so will have to
monitor for strong convection potential if instability is able to
Clouds/widespread rain...rainfall amounts portions of North Miami-Dade and
S Broward approached 2 inches...have led to much below normal
temperatures...and record low maxima are being threatened at kmia
and kfll. Temperatures should rebound to near normal for the
remainder of the week.
Hazardous rip currents still ongoing on Atlantic waters...and at
least moderate risk will likely extend into Wednesday.
Long term /Friday through Monday night/...
with little defined synoptic features shown in long range
models...and potential for aforementioned surface low to meander
off the Georgia/Carolina coast at weeks end...extended forecast has
higher than usual uncertainty. Current grids reflect near
climatological normal of diurnal convection...increasing in
coverage as it spreads inland on sea breezes. As the evolution of
the potential tropical system becomes more apparent...probability of precipitation will
likely be refined.
shower coverage continues to be rather light across the East Coast
sites this afternoon with heavier rains/convection well offshore.
Easterly winds have also been quite a bit lighter than expected so
decreased wind speeds through the period. Will keep vcsh through
the period at all sites except kapf. As always...brief MVFR/IFR
ceilings/visibilities will be possible within any isolated moderate to heavy
shower that crosses a site.
extended Small Craft Advisory for Atlantic waters...minus Biscayne Bay...through
0z...although if present trends continue...may be able to be
cancelled early. Wind and seas forecast has high degree of
uncertainty through the period...as will be significantly
dependent on the evolution of surface lopres presently over northern
Bahamas. Overall wind forecast reflects this feature moving north
of the region...causing winds to switch to the south by late
tomorrow and continuing into Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 68 84 69 87 / 50 60 30 30
Fort Lauderdale 68 85 72 87 / 40 60 20 40
Miami 69 86 72 88 / 30 50 20 40
Naples 68 85 71 86 / 20 40 10 30
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-172-
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz650-651-