Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
150 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015


In general southwesterly winds continue across the region. However
local observations do indicate that the Atlantic coast sea breeze
is developing but not penetrating very far inland. Chances of
convection are still expected to be reduced with any activity
mainly confined to the lake region. No terminals in South Florida
assigned thunderstorms in the vicinity with mainly VFR conditions forecast to prevail this
afternoon into the early evening.



Previous discussion... /issued 1046 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/


All the recent mesoscale-scale model trends continue to indicate a lack
of potential for shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon
with any development likely to be around the lake region...which
is consistent with the current forecast. This is consistent with
the lower regional precipitable water...around 1.5 inches from the 12z
sounding...warm middle-level temperatures and lapse rates not
favorable for active convection. Other than just slight changes to
the short term changes required to the current
forecast package.


Previous discussion... /issued 752 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/


For the short term...there is some patchy areas of fog/mist along
the Atlantic coastal zone that could reduce visibilities for some
of the East Coast terminals to around 4-5 sm over the next hour or
so and then expected to clear.

Limited convection is expected across the South Florida peninsula
today. Southwesterly winds will continue across the region today with
the East Coast sea breeze possible from time to time after 17-18z.
Showers/thunderstorms forecast to be limited with no terminals
assigned thunderstorms in the vicinity this afternoon with mainly VFR conditions expected
to prevail.


Previous discussion... /issued 331 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/

the South Florida weather pattern will change little over the next
several days with only day to day fluctuations in the deep westerly
flow expected to persist through Friday. The middle level trough that
has been influencing our weather for the past few days has lifted to
North Florida this morning which in turn is allowing some slight
drying aloft to occur. Forecast soundings are showing the precipitable water
lowering today and satellite estimated total precipitable water confirms this
indicating values as of 06z ranging from near 1.4" along the
southeast coast to around 1.8" just west of Lake Okeechobee. For
this reason, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the southern portions of the peninsula with scattered
activity in the lake region to Palm Beach County. On Wednesday, the
trough axis will slide to the south again as the subtropical ridge
across the Southern Plains builds to the east in response to a
strong trough moving the northern states. As this occurs, moisture
will return with an increase in afternoon storms expected
concentrating over the interior and East Coast metropolitan regions. This
pattern will change little through Friday. Through this time frame,
temperatures at 500mb are forecast to be in the range of -7c to -8c
which is right at the average for late July so severe storms are not
anticipated but the cooling aloft will allow for more action than
what will be seen this afternoon.

By Saturday, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing a col region
evolving across South Florida as a broad cyclonic circulation
develops over the eastern U.S. With amplification to the subtropical
ridge over the Desert Southwest and to our east over the western
Atlantic. This will revert thunderstorm development back to along
sea breeze boundaries with the most action concentrated over the

boating conditions will remain ideal across South Florida waters
outside of scattered thunderstorms which could produce locally
rough waters, mainly during the afternoon and early evenings.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 78 91 77 93 / 20 40 20 60
Fort Lauderdale 79 92 78 93 / 10 40 10 50
Miami 79 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 50
Naples 79 88 80 90 / 10 20 20 40


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...10/cd
long term....10/cd

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations