Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
637 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015
raised high risk rips statement for Atlantic beaches Saturday and
Saturday night. Fairly quiet night expected...no changes needed to
forecast at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 630 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015/
VFR conditions expected to prevail. Weak front moving through
South Florida early this evening...bringing an increase in high
clouds. Light winds early will shift to the north and northeast
and increase to 5-10 knots overnight. Winds will continue to veer
more to the east on Saturday at 10-15 knots.
Previous discussion... /issued 236 PM EST Friday Jan 30 2015/
Short term (tonight-Sunday night)...
the progressive pattern across North America that became established
nearly a week ago will continue through the short term period. A
middle/upper level trough will move across New England today and into
the Atlantic tonight and Saturday. Its associated surface cold
front currently in central Florida will move across South Florida
this evening with high pressure building behind the front. Due to
the fact that this trough will be lifting so well to our
northeast, most of the cold air will also remain well to the north
so this will only be a reinforcing shot of cool air with
temperatures changing little tonight compared with readings from
this morning. The high pressure will rapidly shift east into the
Atlantic on Saturday and Saturday night as a southern stream
trough currently over the Desert Southwest becomes absorbed with
an upstream trough moving out of southern Canada. This will result
in the surface flow to become southerly by Sunday and Sunday night
as a cold front moves into North Florida. The southerly flow will
translate into significant warming with temperatures by Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night about 10 degrees warmer than current
readings. There could also be some low level moistening by Sunday
night, but the southerly flow should keep any shower activity over
the Atlantic waters.
Long term (monday-friday)...
during the extended period, there could be an increased chance for
showers across South Florida. A cold front associated with the
trough moving across the southern U.S. Will move into South Florida
on Monday night where it will stall. Another southern stream trough
is depicted by both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) to move across central Mexico
and into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. This will
induce a surface low pressure to develop in the Gulf and then track
across north or central Florida either Wednesday or Thursday of next
week. The European model (ecmwf) has the low farther to the north but even with the
GFS solution, it does not appear at this time that South Florida
would receive significant rainfall.
wind and seas will be on the increase tonight through Saturday
especially over the Atlantic waters as high pressure builds behind
the cold front. Conditions will gradually subside on Sunday and
Monday but then possible build back again to advisory levels on
Tuesday behind the next cold front.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 58 70 61 75 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 59 71 63 75 / 10 10 10 10
Miami 59 72 61 76 / 10 10 10 10
Naples 54 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk from Saturday morning through Sunday
morning for flz168-172-173.
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 7 PM EST Saturday for amz650-