Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1248 PM EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail the remaining afternoon
hours into the early morning hours on Thursday. Patchy fog is
expected during the early morning hours on Thursday...but mainly
expected to impact the interior and western peninsula with
terminal kapf possibly experiencing occasional periods of fog
around 10z to 12z Thursday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 931 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
fog dissipated earlier than previous few mornings...leaving behind
partly/mostly sunny skies. Forecast on track...thus only
modifications to grids were hourly ones to better reflect present
conditions. Above normal temperatures with no showers expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 655 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all South
Florida terminals through the morning hours and into the evening.
Regional observations and recent satellite imagery indicate fog
across the interior and western interior peninsula. Terminal kapf
might experience periods of fog early this morning but so far
observations do not indicate any occurrence with mainly VFR
conditions expected to prevail.
Previous discussion... /issued 316 am EST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
Short term (today-friday)...
The latest short-range model guidance remains in good agreement
through the period and indicates the warm and humid conditions
continuing as deep layer ridging dominates. The low-level flow will
steadily veer toward the south as high pressure builds eastward over the
Atlantic and a weakening frontal boundary approaches and moves into
the local area by Thursday night/Friday. Above average temperatures
will persist each day and may near records (5-10 degree f above ave) in
some areas. Despite the dry middle/upper level air associated with an
upper ridge and subsidence, plenty of low-level moisture will keep
the fog chances in the forecast through the late night and early
morning periods. The best rain chances will remain north of the
local area where the better source of deep layer moisture is
projected as the front approaches. However, a combination of the
frontal boundary, moist srly low-level flow and daytime heating
should be enough to trigger a few showers later Thursday/Friday.
Otherwise, rain chances will remain low through the period, outside
of a few showers developing across the southeastern Atlantic waters within
the moist south-southeast flow.
Long term (saturday-wednesday)...
Above average temperatures will likely persist through the weekend
and into the upcoming week as a frontal boundary stalls over the
state. This feature will keep at least isolated/scattered showers in the
forecast each day through the weekend. Although forecast confidence
remains low through the first half of the upcoming week due to
persistent model differences, the guidance generally features an
upper pattern characterized with a ridge building overhead by the
middle-week time frame and troughing over northern Mexico.
Light to moderate southeast winds associated with high pressure will
continue through Thursday. A cold front will approach later Thursday
and Friday, then stall across the region this weekend. Increasing
seas due to a northerly swell may near advisory levels across
portions of the Atlantic waters by Friday night into Saturday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 86 69 82 / 0 10 10 30
Fort Lauderdale 74 85 71 82 / 0 10 10 20
Miami 72 86 71 83 / 0 10 10 20
Naples 66 83 66 81 / 0 0 10 20