Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
issued by National Weather Service Key West Florida
710 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
Mainly VFR conditions to prevail at all sites through the period.
Gusty westerly winds are forecast to shift to the northwest by
around 07z as the cold front pushes through. Surface pressure
gradient will remain tightened after the frontal passage
keeping northwesterly winds at around 10 knots, gusting between
16 and 22 kts for the East Coast terminals. The winds are forecast
to shift to the NE for the East Coast terminals later in the day.
The wind shift is forecast to occur first at the northern terminals,
because of the shape of the coastline. For tmb it is not certain if
the wind shift will occur before 22-23z.
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014/
..turning much cooler on Thursday behind a cold front tonight...
Discussion...a cold front moving into the western Florida
Panhandle will move southeast across Florida overnight. The front
will be moisture starved, so it will go through without fanfare.
However, a noticeable airmass difference will accompany the front
with much lower humidity and temperatures for highs tomorrow some
10-15f degrees those felt today.
A progressive pattern will be in place with the high behind the
front moving fairly quickly into the Atlantic. This will bring
about a return easterly flow by Friday. So after a chilly night
Thursday night, temperature and moisture recovery begins and we will be
back into the 80s by Sunday. /Gregoria
Long term (saturday through tuesday)...(from previous discussion)
by this weekend...surface ridge responsible for the cool dry
weather will move off the eastern Seaboard...allowing southeast
flow to establish over the region. Moisture will increase and
temperatures will moderate. By late Sunday into Monday...an upper-
level trough and associated surface low are forecast to develop
somewhere over the deep south. The European model (ecmwf) keeps progressive
Continental flow in place and swings a cold front through South
Florida on Monday...whereas the GFS anchors a closed ulvl lopres
over Texas and holds the front north of the region. Under both of
the scenarios...South Florida probability of precipitation would increase...and exist in
grids accordingly for Monday/Tuesday time frame. /Sk
Marine...SW winds will pick up and become northwest after midnight
behind a cold front with speeds of 20 knots or higher forecast over
the Atlantic and Gulf waters. For this reason, will hoist a Small
Craft Advisory for the Gulf and Atlantic waters beginning at
2 am. Winds will become north then eventually NE on Friday. Gulf
Stream seas are forecast to increase to around 7 feet by Thursday before
slowly subsiding Thursday night-Fri.
Fire weather...a much drier airmass will spread into South
Florida tonight through Thursday. This will allow for minimum
relative humidities to fall into the 30s area wide, except perhaps
even into the upper 20s across inland Collier and western Hendry
and Glades counties. The Florida dept of forestry still indicates
though just a low fire danger over all of South Florida.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 64 72 57 75 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 65 74 60 75 / 20 0 0 0
Miami 67 75 59 77 / 20 0 0 0
Naples 63 73 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am Thursday to 2 am EDT Friday for
coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida out
20 nm-coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach,
Florida out 20 nm-waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida
extending from 20 nm to the territorial waters of the
Bahamas-waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, Florida
extending from 20 nm to 60 nm.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 2 PM EDT Thursday for coastal
waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Florida out
20 nm-Gulf waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach, Florida
extending from 20 to 60 nm.