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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1042 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING HAS BECOME PINCHED OFF BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES, ONE TO
OUR EAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE OTHER
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS LOWERED THE 500MB
TEMPERATURES FROM A BALMY -4.7C YESTERDAY MORNING TO -7C AT 12Z
THIS MORNING FROM THE MFL SOUNDING. DUE TO THIS COOLING ALOFT, THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT 6.2C/KG. THIS FIGURE IS NOT HIGH, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THAT BEING SAID, WITH PLENTY OF
DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING (ALREADY 90 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR) THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY. THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SO THE MAIN ACTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THINKING. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO BOTH COASTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS JUST INLAND
FROM THE COASTS UNTIL THE SEA BREEZES CAN STEER THE CELLS MORE
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/ 

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
KAPF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...SO KEPT VCTS OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST. 

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  40  20 
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  30  20 
MIAMI            91  79  91  80 /  30  20  30  20 
NAPLES           92  77  90  76 /  30  20  30  20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$CV 

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