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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...NW WIND OF 8-10KTS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18KTS. SIMILAR SPEEDS
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. PREVAILING BKN-OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WITH LOWEST DECKS FL050-060, BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT OR SKC AFTER 11/00Z. NW WIND
DIMINISHES TO 5-7KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH A LAND BREEZE BRINGING KAPF
AROUND TO THE NE AFTER 11/03Z. /ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016/ 

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE FOR THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE CURBED COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN
GENERAL...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED. MOST
AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL...DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE AND MAXIMA
SHOULD REACH LOW/MID 60S.

PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MRNG...WHEN MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S...AND SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL REACH UPPER 30S. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGH...SO WIND CHILL VALUES MAY NOT
BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN LIGHTEN ENOUGH...CANT
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN GLADES /MAYBE HENDRY/ COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND FROST HASN'T BEEN PLACED IN GRIDS.
AFTER TONIGHT...SLOW WARMING TREND COMMENCES...WITH MAXIMA BY
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO SURPASS 70F AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...AND A GRADUALLY RETURN OF MOISTURE AFTER FLOW TURNS
EASTERLY BY WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...ON MORE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON FORECASTING POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THEN LIFTING
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD THEN CROSS
FLORIDA TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE FIRST DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
THE AREA IN OVER A WEEK.

MARINE...CHANGES TO ONGOING MARINE HAZARDS INCLUDE DROPPING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...BISCAYNE BAY...AND
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...GULF SCA EXTENDED
THROUGH MID-AFTN AS SEAS ARE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...ADVISORY MAINLY FOR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...AND WHERE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED...OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY...HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN EAST FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY RETURNS THEM TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN BE HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO
WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FALL
TO NEAR 35 PERCENT EACH OF THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND ERC VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  41  66  50 /   0   0   0   0 
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  47  68  56 /   0   0   0   0 
MIAMI            67  48  68  56 /   0   0   0   0 
NAPLES           62  44  68  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

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