Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
333 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Discussion...

A frost advisory has been posted for portions of west Tennessee and
northeast Mississippi along and near the Tennessee River valley for
late tonight and early Thursday morning.

Temperatures ranged from the middle 50s to lower 60s this afternoon
with a light southeast wind. High level clouds were spreading into
the region from the west.

Thin cirrus clouds will spread across the midsouth tonight as the
upper flow becomes more southwesterly. Overall skies will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy. Winds will continue light southeasterly.
Think temperatures will drop to about 35 degrees along and near the
Tennessee River valley. These unseasonably cold temperatures will be cold
enough for areas of frost...thus issued a frost advisory for this
area. However...temperatures will be warmer than last night as the
warming trend continues.

Thursday looks to be a nice Spring day weatherwise. High
temperatures will be in the 60s areawide with some locations
climbing close to 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

Models continue to be in good agreement indicating an upper level
trough and weak cold front (really more of a surface trough)
approaching and moving through the region Thursday night into
Friday. Moisture and instability will be limited with this
system...kept a 20 percent chance of showers going as in the earlier
forecast.

The beginning of the weekend looks very pleasant weatherwise. A
strong upper level ridge will build over the midsouth Saturday.
Abundant sunshine will occur with high temperatures climbing into
the 70s.

The pattern will become more unsettled Sunday into Tuesday as an
upper level trough and cold front approach and move into the region.
The European model (ecmwf) is slower than the GFS in weakening and moving the upper
level ridge to our east Sunday...thus slower in bringing into the
midsouth the chance of showers and thunderstorms with the upper
level trough and cold front. Continued to lean more toward the European model (ecmwf)
with some consideration of the GFS. There will be enough moisture
and instability for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
gradually spread into the area from the west Sunday into Monday
night. Probability of precipitation may need to be increased in later forecasts sometime
during this period as the timing and details become clearer.

It looks like the chance for showers and thunderstorms will end from
the north as the upper level trough pushes to the southeast and
drier air moves in from the northwest. Upper level ridging will
spread over the area Wednesday with dry and warm weather...high
temperatures look to climb into the lower 80s for much of the area.

Jcl

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions for the entire period for all sites. Winds are
currently from the southeast from 7 to 10 knots...but will subside
a bit after Sundown. Winds will veer slightly to the south
and increase in speed near the end of the period as a cold front
moves towards the region.

Zdm

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am CDT Thursday for Alcorn-
Tishomingo.

Tennessee...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am CDT Thursday for Benton Tennessee-
Carroll-Chester-Decatur-Hardin-Henderson-Henry-McNairy-
Weakley.

&&

$$