Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
710 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
There were a few lingering showers early this evening across
portions of west Tennessee and north MS...but think these will soon
dissipate with sunset. Updated to add areas of fog to northwest Tennessee
after midnight and adjusted sky cover. Also made a few other
tweaks to the grids.
Discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/
As of 3pm...temperatures are in the low to middle 90s areawide with
isolated convection occurring mainly over northwest Tennessee
where the best moisture currently resides. Elsewhere the airmass
is much drier with dewpoints only in the lower 60s which is making
conditions feel a bit more pleasant than in recent days. The
stationary front that was near the northern border of our forecast area has
begun to lift north as a warm front into northern Kentucky and
southern Illinois. Any storms that continue through late afternoon
will quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating by this
Short term...tonight through Sunday...
well it appears that rain will finally make its way back to the
middle-south just in time for the Labor Day Holiday weekend. The
upper level ridge currently located over the southeastern United
States will continue to move slowly eastward on Friday...giving
way to a longwave trough currently located over the High Plains.
This trough will move through the middle-south this weekend and bring
showers and thunderstorms to the region beginning Friday night and
continuing into Sunday night. The best chances for rain appear to
be on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with close to an inch of quantitative precipitation forecast
expected across most of the region. Temperatures will generally be
in the middle to upper 80s through the period with mostly cloudy to
Long term...Monday through next Thursday...
models are now in pretty good agreement through this period. Flow
aloft will become more zonal by Monday and a ridge of high
pressure will begin to build into the middle-south by Tuesday. A cold
front is expected to drop down into southern Missouri and Kentucky
by Tuesday night and stall out through Thursday. Some showers and
thunderstorms may occur near this boundary under the ridge over
northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas...but will only advertise
a slight chance of probability of precipitation for now. The ridge will continue to build
in through late week and temperatures will return to the middle 90s
by Thursday and Friday.
VFR conditions will prevail...with a period of light fog/MVFR
visible at mkl and tup late tonight. Calm to light southeast winds
overnight will increase to 6-9 kts from the south and southwest.