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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
439 am CDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014

Discussion...

The first full day of fall will feel very much like fall
throughout the midsouth. As of 4am this morning temperatures have
fallen into the 40s in portions of west Tennessee and near 50
degrees elsewhere in our forecast area. The region is currently under
one of the driest air masses we've seen in some time. The 00z lzk
sounding had a precipitable water value of only 0.47 of an inch.

A strong...broad surface high centered over the Ohio Valley region
and a building upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley
region will continue to make for terrific weather today and
through the rest of the work week for the midsouth. Highs will
remain 3-5 degrees below normal today and lows tonight will fall
to the upper 40s once again in northwest Tennessee. Temperatures will
rebound to near normal values by Wednesday and into the weekend as
the surface slowly shifts east. Expect high temperatures in the
low 80s from Wednesday through the weekend with lows mainly in the
upper 50s through the aforementioned period.

Long term...
an upper level low pressure system will begin to form in the
Southern Plains this weekend and push towards the midsouth pulling
up moisture from the Gulf and changing US over to a more moist
pattern by the end of the weekend through early next week. The
Euro is more aggressive with this system while the GFS hints at
only scattered showers and thunderstorms from late Saturday to
early Sunday. Due to disagreements between long term models... I
decided to keep low end probability of precipitation until models come into better
agreement. Both models agree on upper level ridging after the
system passes on early next week.

Jpm3

&&

Aviation...

06z tafs

VFR with some patchy fog possible at kmkl late tonight. Light NE
wind overnight increasing to 8-10 kts Tuesday morning.

Sjm

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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