Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
641 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015
Updated to increase probability of precipitation areawide and add potential for isolated
A shortwave trough rotating around the southern periphery of a
large upper level low pressure system centered over Nebraska this
evening will spread another round of showers and a few
thunderstorms into the middle south overnight. Probability of precipitation have been raised
to account for this expected feature. Regional 00z soundings
to our west and southwest to include klzk and kshv are displaying
elevated instability present with MUCAPES up to 500 j/kg. In
addition...a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop along an
axis from northeast Texas into south central Arkansas.
Therefore...expect a few thunderstorms in our area as well as the
shortwave rotates through. Temperatures should remain seasonably
cool to the north of a front currently bisecting the area. Lows
are expected to range from the lower 40s in northeast Arkansas to
the upper 50s over portions of northeast Mississippi. Also areas
of fog should continue areawide with visibilities dipping below 1
mile at times through the night.
The forecast and latest grids have been updated and sent.
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015/
a Rex block over western North America that resulted in a static
downstream weather pattern was finally showing signs of breaking
down. The large upper level low over western U.S. Will lift from
the central rockies into the Great Lakes early Wednesday...with
sufficient height falls over the midsouth to drive the surface
cold front and midlevel subtropical moisture plume to the Gulf.
Sunny afternoon skies will prevail over most of the midsouth
from Wednesday through the first part of the weekend. In contrast
to the past weekend...this Saturday will see sunny skies and mild
A progressive late autumn pattern will prevail into early next
week. GFS and European model (ecmwf) models remained in good agreement in bringing
a compact upper low east from the Central Plains into the middle MS
River Valley on Monday. This feature will bring our next chance
of rain Sunday night and Monday. In the interim...daytime temperatures
will average near or a few degrees above early December normals.
00z taf set
LIFR/IFR conditions will dominate the first half of this taf
period...though a brief period of MVFR conditions may be seen at
mem initially. Rain will persist at all sites except at jbr.
Areas of fog will also help to reduce visibility. Winds will either be
calm or light from the south...shifting westerly as weak front
pushes through. Believe improvement will be seen late in the
period for all sites ... tup still in question tomorrow