Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
256 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Discussion...

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving north
across the forecast area at this time. This activity is ahead of
an upper level shortwave which will be lifting northeast from
northeast Texas tonight and early Monday. As this shortwave moves
through the region...additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Tornado watches
are in effect for areas south and west of the forecast area until
early evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible mainly west
of the Mississippi River.

On Monday...as this shortwave moves out of the region the chance
of thunderstorms will diminish some during the day especially over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain
fairly close to normal levels with highs mainly in the lower 80s.

On Monday night...a second upper level short wave will move across
the region. This system appears to be a little stronger than the
system moving through tonight. This will mean that will be another
threat of severe weather, it also means that heavy rainfall is
possible mainly west of the Mississippi River. Will be issuing a
Flash Flood Watch for all out counties west of the Mississippi
River for Monday afternoon and Monday night. This short wave will
finally pull out of the region on Tuesday with more thunderstorms
expected.

By Tuesday night...a third shortwave moves across southern Kansas
and into southern Missouri. This system is not nearly as strong as
the first two so there will be a lesser chance of thunderstorms
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this short wave pulls of the
region Wednesday night the chance of thunderstorms will continue
to decrease.

On Thursday...we have weather more typical of early Summer with
some afternoon thunderstorms due to daytime heating. Any
thunderstorms that we see during the day on Thursday should be
gone by Thursday evening.

By Friday...the first in another series of upper level shortwaves
will approach the region. This will bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area for Friday and continuing
through much of next weekend. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal levels during this period.

Ars

&&

Aviation...
18z taf cycle

Southerly winds will continue through 18z tmr. Winds are to be
strong and gusty, but gusts should cease tonight and tmr morning.
Showers ahead of a feature working in western Arkansas have popped up
and died out all morning. After release of 18z package...showers
developed in norther Mississippi and are moving north. May have to
put in showers for this afternoon. Thinking is for ts's in western Arkansas
to arrive jbr/mem early evening go on east and be in mkl/tup vicinity
after 9 this evening. Expect ceilings to drop during storms.

Wer

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee Arkansas-
Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations