Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1116 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015
Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 924 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/
Skies have cleared across the midsouth this evening. High pressure
will continue to build into the area. The combination of light
winds and clear skies will allow for low temperatures to drop into
the upper 30s to upper 40s. Current forecast looks good...will
only update to remove evening wording.
Discussion... /issued 351 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/
As of 3pm...
latest surface analysis places a cold front from the
Michigan thumb...extending southward through east Tennessee...and
down to the Mississippi coast. A 1017mb surface high was located
over North Texas and Oklahoma. Temperatures across the middle-south
are quite cool this afternoon with readings in the low to middle 60s
areawide under partly sunny skies. Winds are still relatively
strong with sustained 10 to 15 miles per hour gusting to around 20 miles per hour making
conditions feel even cooler.
Short term...tonight through Wednesday...
high pressure will build in overnight...leading to clear and
seasonably cool conditions. Lows will bottom out in the lower 40s
with a few low lying areas touching the upper 30s. By tomorrow...
surface high pressure will quickly push to the south and the east
and winds will kick around to the south and southwest. Gusty
southwest winds around 20 to 25 miles per hour will be prevalent mainly west
of the Mississippi River where the pressure gradient will be
strongest. The aforementioned area will be also see the best
moisture return during the day on Tuesday as well with dewpoints
rebounding into the 50s. Temperatures will be pleasant with highs
in the lower 70s.
Tuesday night into Wednesday...
wet conditions will return to the region as a cold front
approaches the middle-south from the north and kicks off scattered
showers and thunderstorms as it slowly sags southward through
Wednesday afternoon. The front is then expected to stall and
eventually wash out across north Mississippi Wednesday night
through Thursday as the parent surface low departs off the New
England coast. High pressure will briefly build into the northern
portions of the forecast area keeping things dry...before pushing east on
Long term...Thursday through this weekend...
models are in reasonable agreement with the features of the next
system...but differ significantly will respect to geographic
location and timing. Either way...a warm front is expected to lift
north on Friday and spread showers and thunderstorms across the
region. By Saturday afternoon...a surface low and shortwave trough
are then anticipated to eject from The Four Corners and transit
into Mississippi Valley. Depending on the location of the surface
low and the progression of the wave...a few strong storms could be
possible in the vicinity...but too much uncertainty exists to
pinpoint anything quite yet.
Sunday appears to be dry and seasonal with temperatures around 70
degrees as the cold front departs off to the east. By Monday...the
pattern will once again become unsettled as northwest flow aloft
sets up over the mid-south. Temperatures will be seasonal
throughout the entire period with readings in the 70s during the
day and 50s at night.
VFR. Light winds overnight will increase Tuesday morning...southwest
12-15 kts with higher gusts at kjbr...kmkl and kmem. Winds will be
quite a bit lighter toward ktup. Winds will diminish to about 5
kts after 22/00z.