Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1133 PM CDT sun Mar 9 2014
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 958 PM CDT sun Mar 9 2014/
updated for adjustments to overnight lows and sky cover.
Infrared satellite trend continues to show shrinking stratocu deck
across the area...with clouds expected to linger longest in
portions of north Mississippi after midnight. This has aided
in cooling temperatures faster this evening over a large portion
of the midsouth. However the greatest temperature drop has been
across the northeast counties where clear skies and calm winds have
been the rule all evening. Therefore have adjusted cloud cover
wording across the entire region and dropped overnight lows in the
northeast a few degrees. The remainder of the forecast is
currently on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 355 PM CDT sun Mar 9 2014/
the cold front that moved through the middle-south overnight has
pushed off to our south and is now located along a line from
northern Georgia and back through southern Alabama and
Mississippi. Behind the front...a 1028mb surface high is building
in from the west northwest. Temperatures across the middle-south are
in the upper 40s north with 50s to around 60 degrees south. A
lingering stratus deck still remains over the southern two thirds
of the middle-south and should break up later this evening.
Short term...tonight through Wednesday...
overnight...skies will become clear and winds will become light to
nearly calm and patchy fog is expected to develop. Any fog should
clear up quickly in the morning as the sun comes up. Monday will
be a beautiful Spring day with abundantly sunny skies and highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide as high pressure and southwest
winds dominate the weather. Temperatures on Tuesday will be well
above normal as well with low to middle 70s anticipated across the
By Tuesday night...a longwave trough will drop down across the
plains and a surface low will develop over the Mississippi Valley.
An associated trailing cold front will move through late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Decent upper level forcing associated with
the trough and marginal instability...about 400 to 500 j/kg
SBCAPE...will be be available ahead of the frontal passage...so
made a slight mention of thunder overnight as the front moves through.
Strong northwest winds behind the front during the day on Wednesday
will be sustained 20 to 25 miles per hour with gusts to around 35 miles per hour. A Wind
Advisory may be needed to address this.
The cold front will move off to the east by Wednesday night as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. Behind the
front...cold and dry air will pour into the region aided by strong
northwest flow aloft.
Long term...Thursday through next weekend...
current model guidance shows -6c to -8c 850mb temperatures arriving
by Thursday morning over the mid-south. This will roughly translate
sub-freezing temperatures at the surface...however the cold will
be shortlived as winds will reverse around to the south during the
day helping to moderate temperatures. Highs be slightly below
normal with readings in the low to middle 50s.
By Friday...flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure
builds in at the surface. This will lead to a nice warming trend
through Sunday with highs back into the 60s. Another cold front
looks to move into the middle-south by Sunday night.
06z taf cycle
VFR ceilings remain in place late this evening...but there may be a
few hours where MVFR ceilings and visibilities may redevelop early Monday
morning. Winds should remain light southwesterly or go calm at all
Skies will clear again Monday morning with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the taf period. Winds will
also increase from the southwest through the day at all sites
before again diminishing Monday evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 42 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
mkl 41 68 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
jbr 40 67 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
tup 44 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20