Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
938 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
9 PM CST surface analysis showed a cold front well south of the
midsouth...entering southern MS. An Arctic high was centered over
the Red River valley of the north...with a ridge axis extending
southward into the Southern Plains. Over the midsouth...surface
winds were gusting over 20kts south of i40...nearer to the Post
frontal pressure rise center over north MS. This pressure rise
center should continue to move off to the south during the
Most recent forecast update contained updates to overnight sky
condition...in addition to earlier overnight temperature
Previous discussion... /issued 612 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
updated to add 00z aviation discussion.
Discussion... /issued 313 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
Clouds are increasing from north to south across the forecast
area as a cold front continues to move through north Mississippi
this afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the cold front are in the
60s while behind the front readings have dropped into the 40s and
The cold front should move through the remainder of the forecast
area by this evening and high pressure will start to build into
the region. With little moisture found ahead of the front...dry
conditions will continue tonight with lows Friday morning in the
low to middle 30s.
High pressure will remain over the central U.S. On Friday keeping
things dry and cool. Temperatures will be below normal on Friday
with highs mainly in the 40s. By Friday night the surface high
will be over the Ohio Valley which will mean a dry and chilly
night with lows Saturday morning in the 20s.
By Saturday...the high will be far enough east of the forecast
area that winds will start to shift to the south which will bring
somewhat milder air into the region. Highs on Saturday will be
closer to normal levels with readings from the middle 40s to lower
A cold front will approach the region Saturday night which will
bring scattered showers into the forecast area. Temperatures
should not remain several degrees above freezing in most areas so
all the precipitation should not change over to snow. The cold
front will move through the forecast area on Sunday so there will
be a much better chance of rain. Once the front moves out of the
region Sunday night temperatures will be dropping close to
freezing over northern sections of the forecast area so the rain
could change to snow before ending.
By Monday high pressure will be building into the region bringing
much colder air into the forecast area. Temperatures will quite
chilly with highs mainly in the 30s. The surface high will track
east so winds will start to shift to the south Monday night which
will keep temperatures from dropping too much with lows Tuesday
morning mainly in the 20s.
Tuesday will be another dry day as the surface high moves into the
middle Atlantic region. Temperatures will be milder with highs in the
40s. Another cold front will approach the region Tuesday night
with a chance of rain showers across most of the forecast area.
Temperatures should remain above freezing so no snow is expected
at this time. The front will move through the region on Wednesday
with a chance of rain for Wednesday and into Wednesday evening.
High pressure will build into the region late Wednesday night and
into next Thursday. This will bring dry weather and below normal
temperatures for Wednesday night and next Thursday.
00z taf cycle
Post frontal clouds will produce MVFR conditions at taf sites
tonight due to moisture being trapped below a subsidence
inversion. VFR conditions are expected to return Friday morning as
clouds gradually thin out during the day. Gusty north/north-northeast winds will
gradually diminish to 6-10 kts overnight into Friday.