Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
911 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
Skies are partly cloudy over most of the forecast area this
evening with temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s.
The cold front currently extends from north central Illinois
through central Missouri and into northwest Oklahoma. A few
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the front and some of this
activity may reach into far northwest sections of the forecast
area overnight. Will update forecast to remove some evening
wording with no big changes needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 612 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/
Currently...another seasonably warm day is ongoing across the
mid-south. Temperatures are running nearly 10 degrees above
normal across the region with readings in the middle to upper 80s.
However...today will likely mark the last day for a long while of
these warm Summer-like temperatures...possibly the last upper 80s
of the year.
WSR-88D radar has been detecting isolated to scattered showers
for most of the afternoon across northeast Mississippi where a
moisture axis of middle 60 dewpoints has been analyzed. Latest
infrared satellite imagery shows a large cutoff upper level low
pressure system over western Mexico. It has begun to retrograde
some this afternoon...allowing the ridge downstream to flatten
out. A split flow regime was noted across the eastern third of the
For tonight...another mild evening is expected with temperatures
in the 60s areawide. A shortwave trough and associated surface
cold front will approach the region from the northwest during the
overnight hours and kick off showers and thunderstorms by early
tomorrow morning. The atmosphere ahead of the front will only be
slightly unstable...so no severe weather is expected. SBCAPE
values range from 500-900 j/kg...and the best instability resides
mainly south of our County Warning Area altogether. The cold front will push
through rather quickly tomorrow. Expect the front to be through
Memphis around midday...and through Tupelo just a few hours later.
Shower coverage will be decent across most of the area with
anywhere from 1/10th of an inch to around a quarter of an inch
expected through tomorrow evening. The front will exit the region
just after midnight...bringing an end to any high end rain
This weekend...just a fantastic forecast with plenty of sunshine
and cool crisp fall air. Temperatures will range from the low to
middle 70s each day...with lows flirting with the lower 50s Saturday
morning...and middle 40s Sunday morning.
Long term...Monday through late next week...
shortwave ridging will lead to slightly above normal readings for
Monday...with temperatures near 80f. Upper level flow will shift
to northwesterly...and allow a trough and cold front to pass
through the middle-south late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Moisture will be quite limited...and showers will likely be
confined to only small portions of north Mississippi where
dewpoints may recover enough. After that...rain does not appear in
the forecast through at least next Thursday. In fact...temperatures
may stay above normal through at least next weekend as the polar
jet retreats all the way up to Canada.
00z taf set
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated rain showers
currently occurring around ktup will die off within the next hour.
Next round of activity will come ahead of the cold front. Do not
expect visibilities or ceilings to be reduced below VFR at this time. Light
and variable winds will become north at 8-10 kts behind the front.