Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1142 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015
updated to add 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 954 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
clear skies and light winds prevailed over the midsouth at
midevening. Temperatures ranged from near 60 near the Tennessee River to
the 60s over the remainder of the midsouth. The exception was a 75
degree reading at the Memphis Airport.
Forecast was recently updated to drop temperatures over the Tennessee River
valley of west Tennessee...where 9 PM temperatures were within a degree or two
of earlier forecast lows.
Previous discussion... /issued 609 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
updated to add 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
High pressure remains located over the Ohio Valley this afternoon.
The high will gradually move northeast tonight into Friday. This
will allow surface winds to turn around to the southeast across the
midsouth on Friday. In addition...an upper ridge will nudge into
the area on Friday. The combination of the southerly winds and the
upper ridge will produce warmer highs across the County Warning Area Friday
afternoon. Expect readings in the upper 80s.
An upper trough will push in from the Central Plains Friday night as
an easterly tropical wave moves into northeast Mississippi. The
combination will produce a broad upper trough over the area over the
weekend. Small chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur
over County Warning Area with best chances occurring over northeast Arkansas and
northeast Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
By early next week into the middle of next week...expect chances
of showers and thunderstorms to diminish as decent subsidence
will occur over the area as Erika moves northward along the east
side of Florida with another weak upper low moving over Texas.
Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds will increase
to southeast winds between 6-9 kts after 28/16z then become light after