Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
324 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
the main story through at least this weekend will be the heat.
Guidance does now indicate a better chance of cooler...at least
near normal temperatures...and a return to at least spotty rain
chances next week.
An isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out
between now and Sunday...but a strong ridge and surface high
pressure will keep conditions mostly dry.
Current temperatures are generally within a degree or so of where
we were 24 hours ago with another degree or so of warming
expected. Afternoon highs should maximum out in the middle 90s. Dew
points have not mixed out quite as much today as yesterday...so
heat indices are slightly higher...but still below our heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees for most of the area.
Expect more of the same tomorrow...and over the weekend as a
strong ridge and surface high pressure dominates the weather
across the midsouth. Models tend to break down and or move these
strong ridges east faster than what usually occurs...so will rely
heavily on persistence in the forecast. The European model (ecmwf) is the slower
model...so will favor its solution for now. Lows will be in the
middle to upper 70s each day with highs in the middle to upper 90s.
For now it looks like Saturday and or Sunday will be the warmest
days with the warmest areas possibly hitting 99 degrees. Resulting
heat indices will be largely determined by dew points and the
amount of atmospheric mixing we see each day. Heat advisories may be
needed...but will be issued on a day by day basis.
As mentioned in the opening paragraph...guidance indicates a
better chance of relief from the heat next week...and better rain
chances. By next Thursday high temperatures should trend 4-5
degrees cooler approaching normal readings.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions should prevail through the taf period...with the
exception of some temporary MVFR ceiling reductions in fog at kmkl and
ktup early Friday morning. Southwest winds will remain brisk this
afternoon at 7 kts or greater...with the highest winds at kjbr
where some gusts cannot be ruled out. Winds will diminish tonight
to 5 kts or less then pick up again from the southwest greater
than 7 kts by middle morning Friday.