Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1107 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015
At 11am...temperatures are mainly in the lower 60s across the
entire region. Latest GOES-15 visible satellite shows a pesky
deck of strato-cumulus over most of north Mississippi as well as
portions of west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. The slow clearing
of skies is partly due to to a small shortwave embedded within
the northwest flow aloft as well as the surface high taking
slightly longer to build in than initially forecast.
Adjusted cloud cover and temperatures to more accurately reflect
current conditions. Also knocked temperatures down a couple of
degrees where clouds have kept temperatures from warming too much.
The rest of the forecast is on track with highs topping out around
the 70 degree mark this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015/
An upper level low pressure system centered over middle Tennessee
early this morning will continue to move east today as surface
high pressure builds south over the region. A much drier airmass
will filter in with low stratus eroding from west to east this
morning. Mostly cloudy skies east of the Mississippi River and
partly cloudy west will give way to mostly sunny skies by this
afternoon. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler with most
location remaining in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon with
Middle level heights will quickly rise on Sunday as surface high
pressure moves east. Return southerly flow should support a rapid
warm up with highs reaching back into the upper 70s and lower 80s
on Sunday with continued dry conditions. Warm temperatures will
continue into Tuesday with highs a few degrees warmer with most
location reaching into the 80s. Low temperatures should start off
cool Sunday morning mostly in the 40s but rise into the 50s by
Another cold front will push across the middle south Monday night.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the frontal
passage but limited moisture should only support a few hundredths
of an inch at best with most locations remaining dry. Cooler
temperatures will again follow for Tuesday with highs mainly in
the 70s with lows again in the 40s to lower 50s.
Dry weather will persist through the middle to end of next week as
high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will slowly
moderate through the end of the week back to near seasonal normals
with highs ranging from the middle 70s to around 80 degrees and
lows mainly in the 50s.
12z taf cycle
Post-frontal stratus is diminishing quicker than expected
especially along and west of the Mississippi River. Latest trends
suggest this improvement should continue across areas east
resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions improving to VFR conditions this
morning. Light north winds expected through the period.