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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
530 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Update...



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Previous discussion... /issued 307 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014/

Discussion...
quiet weather is in store through Friday as flat upper ridging
holds over the midsouth. The surface ridge has moved east of the
area resulting in southerly winds. Moisture will increase...with
chances for showers spreading over the area from west to east
Friday night.

Guidance is a little different with timing of arrival of
precipitation...but all agree that the greatest likelihood of
rain/showers is Saturday and Saturday night. With continued run to
run agreement/confidence...went likely/categorical probability of precipitation areawide
Saturday. Continued likely/categorical probability of precipitation through Sat night for
all but our northwest counties. Forecast soundings suggest a
little cape on Saturday...will need to monitor trends for possible
thunder. Precipitation should gradually end from northwest to southeast
on Sunday/Sunday evening.

As the weekend system departs...a front will move in bringing
cooler temperatures to the midsouth...with a reinforcing front on
Tuesday. Extended guidance differs regarding system that will
affect the area middle-late next week. European model (ecmwf) is earlier with 850-mb
warm advection and precipitation development than GFS. Will introduce low
probability of precipitation across southern counties Wednesday night...spreading areawide
Thursday. Will monitor forecast trends with the late-week system
for winter precipitation possibilities.

Gw

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Aviation...
00z tafs

Few aviation weather concerns this evening...with VFR prevailing.
Mem southerly wind component should prevail at or above 8kts after
05z.

Pwb

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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
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