Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
532 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 316 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016/
Discussion...water vapor satellite trends this morning indicate
a longwave trough axis stretching from the Great Lakes region back
through the Southern Plains. At the base of this upper level
trough is an upper level low. This is resulting in a gradual
increase in upper level cloud cover across the middle south. As of 2
am CST...temperatures across the middle South Range from the upper
20s to around 30 degrees across west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River...and lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
Short term models indicate the aforementioned upper level low will
continue to move into the lower Mississippi Valley today.
Moisture associated with this upper level low is expected to
remain well to the south towards the Gulf of Mexico. Model
soundings indicate enough middle level moisture will be present to
produce partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Highs today will be
in the lower 50s at most locations. Skies will gradually begin to
clear later this afternoon into tonight with lows falling back
into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the forecast area.
A strong Arctic cold front is expected to move into the middle south
by Sunday night. The 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) runs indicate there will be a
potential for some light rain Sunday evening and perhaps a
rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday...mainly across
portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The 00z/06z
WRF remains drier than the other model solutions but indicates a
chance for some rain and or snow showers Monday afternoon/Monday
night. The forecast trend still continues for better moisture to
remain to the north and east of the area and latest 00z models
suggest quantitative precipitation forecast amounts around a few hundredths at best across the
above mentioned areas. Temperatures on Monday are expected to
range from the upper 30s to around 40 degrees north of I-40 and
lower 40s south.
GFS/European model (ecmwf) long term models suggest a deep upper level trough
across the eastern United States will gradually lift towards the
Middle Atlantic States/New England towards the middle to latter half
of next week. Temperatures are expected to moderate by the middle
of next week with colder air returning towards next weekend as
another cold front drops into the middle/lower Mississippi
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be near calm for much of the forecast period.