Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
649 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
Updated for 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014/
Cool air continued to push into the midsouth on gusty northwest
winds this afternoon. Winds have decreased to below Wind Advisory
criteria at most locations and will probably let the Wind Advisory
expire at 4 PM. Low clouds are expected to have cleared out
of most of the region by sunset leaving mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies for tonight. Some high level cloudiness will spread
into portions of the area from the north. With decreasing wind and
cloud cover...low temperatures tonight will drop into the middle 20s
to lower 30s. High pressure will settle to along the Gulf Coast.
After a cold start early Thursday morning...warmer weather will
return Thursday afternoon. Winds will turn to the southwest with
increasing upper level heights. Skies will be sunny making for a
pleasant afternoon weatherwise.
The warming trend is forecast to continue into Friday. There will be
increasing middle and high level clouds...but at this time think any chance of
rain is below mentionable levels and thus kept the forecast dry
during the day Friday. Did mention a 20 percent chance of showers
Friday night with increasing southerly low level flow and associated
moisture. A weak cold front will approach from the north while an
upper level trough approaches from the west.
Rain chances are expected to increase over the weekend. There are
some differences between the timing of the rain between the ecwmf
and GFS with the the European model (ecmwf) the slowest. For now...took a compromise.
The cold front will stall across the northern portions of the
midsouth...or perhaps just to the north...early in the weekend. The
upper level trough is forecast to push into the area Saturday and
Saturday night...then move to the east Sunday. By
Sunday...strengthening high pressure behind the cold front will help
to push it southward through the region. Saturday still looks
mild...but cooler air will follow the front Sunday. Showers look to
become numerous by Saturday night...and there is enough
instability...especially elevated...for a chance of thunderstorms.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into Sunday. The
ecwmf paints a wetter picture Sunday than the GFS since the GFS is
faster in moving the rain out of our area.
Cooler and dry weather will spread into area Sunday night. Winds
will turn to the southwest by Tuesday with warmer weather. Kept the
forecast dry through Wednesday. Significant model differences do
occur Wednesday with the European model (ecmwf) much cooler than the GFS as it brings
a dry cold front through the area. Once again took a compromise
between the models.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest/north
winds will become 8-10 kts within a couple hours after Sundown and
eventually become light and variable overnight. South/southwest
winds 5-8 kts will develop after 13/15z tomorrow and continue
through the end of the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 33 62 44 68 / 0 0 0 10
mkl 27 59 38 67 / 0 0 0 10
jbr 30 61 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
tup 29 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 10