Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1144 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014
updated for 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 658 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014/
short range guidance is in agreement with radar trends keeping
conditions dry overnight. The last shower should move across the
Alabama state line momentarily. Scaled back probability of precipitation accordingly. The
only other significant forecast question is fog. Dew points remain
in the low 70s across much of the area...especially north
Mississippi and most of west Tennessee..so introduces patchy for
after midnight across most of the region. Otherwise the forecast
looks to be in good shape. Morning lows should range from the
middle 60s to near 70 degrees with dry conditions tomorrow.
Midafternoon surface map showed a weak cold front oriented
parallel and just north of i40. Post frontal dewpoints had cooled
to the lower and middle 60s over northeast Arkansas...the MO bootheel and
northwest Tennessee. Isolated showers and thunderstorms had formed in the
heat of the afternoon...rooted in the modified Gulf airmass over
northeast MS and the Savannah Tennessee area.
Tonight will see the weak cold front push a little farther south
and eventually wash out over north MS. Through early evening... a
few thunderstorms will possible near and south of the slowly
With light east/northeast winds prevailing... an upper level height
ridge will edge eastward from the Southern Plains into the midsouth
through Friday. This will further reduce or eliminate rain chances...
allowing daytime temperatures to warm to seasonal middle July values.
The weekend and early week periods will see significant upper
level height falls over southern Ontario and the Great Lakes. By
Monday evening... a 545dm 500mb low will become centered over the
Great Lakes. Currently...height falls and a surface cold frontal
passage will occur over the midsouth. The outer extended periods
will see northwest upper level flow prevail Tuesday and Wednesday...
with below normal temperatures and increased thunderstorm chances.
06z taf cycle
Not much change from 00z thinking. VFR weather through most of
the taf period...with light fog producing MVFR visibility near sunrise.
Calm or light and variable winds will become northeast at 4-6 kts.