Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
655 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015
Updated for 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015/
Currently...as of 3pm... cold front is now located along a line
from Corinth Mississippi...back through Oxford...and south through
Greenwood Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along
the front...with more showers and a few thunderstorms located on
the backside of the front. Temperatures are pretty hot south of
the boundary with readings near 90 degrees...with low to middle 60s
located across the northern tier of the County Warning Area behind the front.
Short term...tonight through this weekend...
a shortwave located near the Oklahoma and Arkansas border will
quickly traverse the lower Mississippi Valley over the next 12
hours or so. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
across the area through about midnight. After that...clouds and
rain chances will begin to clear from west to east. Temperatures
will cool off quick and bottom out in the lower 50s areawide.
Cool Canadian air will continue to filter into the middle-south for
Saturday...with temperatures barely flirting with the lower 70s
under abundantly sunny skies. Sunday will be a bit warmer as
the surface high pushes east and winds shift back around to the
Long term...Monday through late next week..
flow aloft will shift northwesterly on Monday and allow another
cold front and shortwave to pass through the mid-south. Limited
moisture will be in place so not much rain is expected with frontal passage.
The airmass will be of Pacific origin...so no major cooldown is
expected either. Expect temperatures to be in the 70s on Tuesday
and warm a few degrees each successive day through the end of the
week. The storm track will remain removed to our north through at
least next weekend...keeping temperatures mild and rain chances
00z taf cycle
Cold front is about to exit the midsouth with a few thunderstorms and rain
southeast of ktup and Post frontal rain showers along the I-40 corridor.
Post frontal rain showers will continue for a few hours this evening. VFR
at this time though latest models indicate a decent possibility of a
lower deck...around 2500 feet..developing at kmem...kjbr and kmkl
overnight so added some tempos for that scenario. Ktup stands the
best chance of dropping to MVFR overnight. IFR conds are possible
there later tonight though confidence is not quite there to add
at this time. VFR conds will return areawide Saturday am. North winds
around 10 kts will diminish slightly overnight.