Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1142 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
updated for 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 652 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
What few showers and thunderstorms there were earlier today across
the extreme northern portions of the midsouth have dissipated.
Updated the zone forecasts to remove remainder of afternoon
wording. Made a few tweaks to the grids...otherwise forecast is
fine at this time.
Discussion... /issued 305 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
Currently...upper level high pressure covers the region with
partly to mostly sunny skies. Lower dewpoints have worked into
the southern 2/3rds of the area while dewpoints remain in the
lower 70s along the MO/Kentucky border. As a result sbcapes are around
2000 j/kg across the northern tier and isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed. Temperatures are generally in the
lower 90s with a light east wind.
Tonight...isolated showers and thunderstorms will dissipate quickly
this evening with loss of heating. Expect mostly clear skies and
with the lower dewpoints temperatures will drop in the upper 60s across a
good part of the area. Patchy fog is possible late tonight across
west Tennessee and extreme northeast Mississippi.
Thursday and Thursday night...Thursday looks fairly similar to
today with lower dewpoints across much of the area except the very
north where a little more moisture will hang around. Most places
will remain dry though an isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible near the MO/Kentucky borders. Temperatures will be in the low to middle
90s though the lower dewpoints will help keep heat index values
down. Thursday night will be pleasant with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70.
Friday through Sunday...upper level high pressure will break down
as an upper trough pushes through the region. Friday will still be
warm and most of the precipitation should hold off until Friday night
into the weekend. Clouds and scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms will keep temperatures down over the weekend with
highs in the upper 80s.
Monday through Wednesday...12z models are not quite in line with
each other early next week. The GFS pushes a broad ridge across
the southern states while the European model (ecmwf) is more aggressive with
pushing a front into the region. For now went with small probability of precipitation and
temperatures around normal.
06z taf cycle
Not much change from 00z tafs. MVFR/IFR visibility with overnight fog
at mkl...jbr and tup...otherwise VFR. A weak disturbance may kick
off a few evening showers near jbr. Winds will be calm/light.