Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1025 am CDT Friday may 29 2015
temperatures west of the Mississippi River have climbed quickly
this morning due to a lack of cloud cover...to the east...less
warming has taken place...but clouds seem to be eroding toward the
east...so still confident in afternoon highs in the middle 80s.
Convective temperatures are in the 82 to 84 range so we should
begin to southeast some convection develop over the next 2 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 603 am CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Discussion... /issued 406 am CDT Friday may 29 2015/
The transition to a wetter pattern will begin for the midsouth
today...as a plume of subtropical moisture moves into the lower
MS River Valley ahead of a slow moving upper trough over the plains.
Precipitable water values will average around 1.8 inches today
The upper level trough should be positioned to provide best rain
chance for the midsouth on Saturday and Sunday. Extensive
clouds...weak environmental shear and rain cooled air should limit
severe storm potential. Should a few breaks develop in the
afternoon cloud cover... a potential for pulse strong thunderstorms
may develop...with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible.
The upper trough is prognosticated by the GFS to sink south and cut off
over the Sabine River valley / SW la coast by Tuesday. The European model (ecmwf)
conversely weakens the upper trough and maintains its eastward
progression to al/GA. In any case... it appears rain chances will
gradually lessen over the midsouth in the early to middle part of
Aviation...12z taf set
LIFR to IFR ceilings spreading across the County Warning Area from the southeast at
this time. Ktup and kmkl are already seeing the low ceilings. Expect
kmem to be affected by 13z. Kjbr should stay VFR. The ceilings will
lift between 15-17z. Have pushed back the timing of diurnal
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain showers to between 17-20z. The convection should die off by
1z. However...expect a line of convection associated with a
shortwave to push into east Arkansas and areas along MS river around 3-4z.
Expect the convection to gradually weaken and dissipate by 7-8z.
Thus have introduced thunderstorms and rain wording at kjbr and kmem during this
time frame. Meanwhile...IFR ceilings will likely return to at least
ktup and kmkl after 8-9z. Expect S-south-southeast winds generally between
5-10 kts through the period.