Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1111 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016
Discussion... /issued 448 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016/
Water vapor satellite trends place an upper level low over
Wisconsin early this morning with several shortwaves rotating
around the upper level low. 09z surface analysis places a cold
front from Clarksville Tennessee back through north central
Mississippi. Meanwhile...an Arctic cold front stretches from
Wisconsin back through northeast and west central Missouri. As of
4 am CST...temperatures across the middle South Range from the upper
30s near Paris Tennessee....and lower to middle 40s elsewhere.
The first of two cold fronts over north Mississippi will depart
the area this morning while a strong Arctic cold front will drop
from northern/central Missouri into the lower Mississippi Valley
later today into this evening. Strong northwest winds are expected
to develop across portions of the middle south...mainly along and
west of the Mississippi River where winds are anticipated to reach
Wind Advisory criteria.
Increasing isentropic ascent and short term model soundings indicate
a potential for snow showers to develop across portions of the middle
south...especially across portions of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River later this afternoon into this evening.
However...precipitation amounts are expected to be light at best
resulting in little if any snow accumulations and minimal if any
impact. Thus...will hold off on any winter weather
headlines/special weather statements for the time being.
A cold Arctic airmass will settle in across the middle south through
Wednesday with highs struggling to reach freezing near the
Tennessee River and 40s across portions of east Arkansas and north
Mississippi. Moderating temperatures are expected towards
Thursday/Friday. Long range models are having difficulty
resolving another approaching upper level shortwave towards the
end of the upcoming weekend and left remainder of the forecast
precipitation free for now.
18z taf set
VFR conditions generally expected over the next 24 hours. Although
ceilings between 3500-5000 feet will occur over much of the 24 hours.
Can/T rule out kmkl going MVFR briefly after 12z. Have introduced
a tempo group as a result. Also...scattered flurries or snow
showers will occur across the area but timing any bands too
difficult at this point. Thus have left mention out. Do not expect
visibilities to be reduced by any snow showers. Strong northwest winds of 15-20
kts sustained will occur through 00z with gusts up to 30 kts.
Speeds will diminish some after 00z but will remain between 10-15
kts sustained with gusts up to 20 kts.
Arkansas...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
Tennessee...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Dyer-Lake-