Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
344 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
Today through Sunday...
very strong model agreement through Saturday provides a high
confidence forecast...some disagreement for Sunday with the
Euro/NAM/can showing the possibility of isolated or scattered
showers and thunderstorms as compared to the GFS and its ensemble
mean which is much drier providing a slightly lesser level of
confidence for Sunday.
Friday and Saturday will be dominated with dry conditions and
cooler than normal temperatures with northerly flow from a large surface high
centered over the Great Lakes. On Sunday a warm front may be near
the region as warmer and more moist air starts to return to the
midsouth...this may allow for some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms...especially for areas north of I-40. Showers
and thunderstorms aided by a very weak shortwave pushing across
the region in conjunction with a warm nearby. Temperatures willstart to
push back towards normal for Sunday with highs in the lower 80s.
--Abs
Monday through Friday...
above average agreement in the medium range models for the
period...and therefore above average confidence in the forecast.
All models showing ridging building into the region as the Holiday
weekend ends and next work week begins. The ridge will be centered
over the southeast Continental U.S. Allowing for warmer and more moist air to work
north from the Gulf...with the ridge mainly over the top of the
area it should cap the environment and have left out any precipitation
chances...though if the ridge drifts slightly off the southeast coast then a
few showers and thunderstorms later in the week will be possible
during the heat of the day. Temperatures will push above normal with many
upper 80s and maybe even 90 possible from middle week into the end of
the work week.
--Abs
&&
aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR. Northeast winds of 7-12 kts will diminish to 4-6 kts late.
Jab
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 75 55 80 61 / 0 0 0 10
mkl 72 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 10
jbr 72 51 78 58 / 0 0 0 10
tup 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
