Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
752 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
cloud cover hung in here today across most of the midsouth...and
it looks like that trend will continue overnight.North Mississippi
may see the most substantial breaks in cloud cover...but toward
morning some redevelopment is possible. A weak cold front has
pushed south of the midsouth. A slightly dryer airmass is slowly
filtering across the region some middle 50 dew points are already in
northern portions of the midsouth...with middle to upper 60s still in
the far south. Highs tomorrow should be close to what we saw today
across northern areas...and slightly cooler in the south. A weak
disturbance may bring a few showers into the Missouri bootheel and
northeast Arkansas...but most of the area will remain dry.
Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014/
Currently...weak cold front is still pushing through north
Mississippi where a few showers have popped this afternoon. Otherwise
skies are partly sunny south of the front with temperatures in the 80s
and mostly cloudy north of the front with temperatures in the 70s.
Tonight and Wednesday...front will stall just south of the area
and stretch from central Mississippi into southwest Missouri by
morning. Weak high pressure will prevail overnight. Clouds may
hang on...especially across western sections where models show
light overrunning across the stalled front producing low clouds
into Wednesday. Generally went above mav numbers tonight due to
potential cloud cover. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
over northern sections on Wednesday as weak disturbance interacts
with the front across northern Arkansas into southwest
Missouri...which will start inching back to the northeast in
response to low pressure developing over the High Plains. Expect a
good deal of cloud over especially over northeast
Arkansas/Missouri bootheel/northwest Tennessee. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal in the upper 70s north to middle 80s south.
Wednesday night into Thursday...12z models continue to show activity
developing across Missouri as an upper level disturbance in the
northwest flow aloft interacts with the nearly stalled surface
front Wednesday night. The activity should move southeast into
the area and the higher probability of precipitation across western sections look good.
Continued probability of precipitation into Thursday though activity will probably be
falling apart through the day as the disturbance exits. Mav
numbers seem too warm considering the potential clouds and precipitation
so went toward the cooler met/Euro guidance for Thursday highs.
Friday and Saturday...upper ridge builds in with warmer temperatures and
dry weather. Expect highs in the middle and upper 80s and lows in the
Extended...12z models have backed off on the precipitation
potential of the next cold front. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) keep the
remnants of Odile well too the west and the main energy of the
Great Lakes trough well to the north. The result is a frontal
passage that is delayed until later Sunday into Monday with less
rainfall. Trend still looks cooler for early next week.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected to prevail through most of the period
except late tonight towards Wednesday morning as MVFR
clouds and/or visibilities develop at all sites. Winds expected to
remain light through the period.