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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
715 PM CDT sun may 3 2015

Discussion...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

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Previous discussion... /issued 703 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Update...
updated for lowering overnight temperatures across the Tennessee
Valley and increased clouds west and north after midnight.

Discussion...

Weak shortwave masked in the ridge will cross the northern
counties tonight...with middle and high level moisture generating
mostly cloudy skies after midnight. Secondly...temperatures
already falling off faster than forecasted along the Tennessee
River. Dewpoints currently in the low 50s...will produce
overnight lows in the low/middle 50s.

Made adjustments to the forecast accordingly.

Jab

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CDT sun may 3 2015/

Minor changes from day to day through the forecast with slowly
warming temperatures through Saturday...

Similar to yesterday...the upper level pattern largely remains
unchanged. At the surface...a high pressure system continues to
progress east off the eastern Seaboard with Lee side troughing
across the Central Plains. The middle-south will experience
persistent south-southwesterly flow over the next few days
supporting very warm temperatures and dry conditions.

With 850 mb temperatures consistently in the 11-13 c range through
the forecast period...highs in the low to middle 80s are forecast
through the period with a slow warming into the weekend. Guidance
supports this warming as well so was a little bit more aggressive
with middle and a few upper 80s late this week. No precipitation
is forecast through late week as the trend in delaying precipitation
continues.

In the long term...the large scale pattern does undergo some
amplification with longwave troughing west and ridging east. This
structure will maintain itself but slowly progress east with time.
It appears mild conditions will continue with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more likely with the approach of the
longwave trough by next weekend. The trend has been to slow this
progression so until this pattern shows more consistency from
model run to model run...opted to not be very aggressive with
precipitation chances.

Tvt

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Aviation...

00z taf cycle

VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through the taf period. Southerly
winds at 6 kts or less tonight will increase in intensity on
Monday...but still at 12 kts or less.

Jlh

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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

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