Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1244 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014
updated to add 18z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 953 am CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014/
Strong and gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish by late
to middle afternoon as high pressure builds in behind a cold front.
Will continue the Wind Advisory until 4 PM. The cold front has
moved through our entire forecast area. Temperatures have dropped
into the 40s over most of the region and will remain nearly steady
this afternoon. Clouds will clear from the west as drier air
pushes in. Updated zones and grids with some tweaks for this
afternoon have already been sent.
Discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Wednesday Mar 12 2014/
Clouds are gradually increasing across the forecast area this
morning ahead of a cold front which is just about to move into the
forecast area. Temperatures remain mild ahead of the front with
readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As the front moves through
the region a few isolated showers will be possible over eastern
sections of the forecast area. As colder air moves in behind the
front temperatures will drop with most areas seeing their highest
temperatures of the day in the morning.
High pressure will build into the Southern Plains by this evening
bringing clear skies and somewhat chilly temperatures with lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. The surface high will move east along
the Gulf Coast on Thursday keeping dry weather for the region.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the
middle 50s to around 60 degrees. By Thursday night the high will be
east of the region so south winds will start to bring milder air
to the forecast area, low Friday morning will be about 10 warmer
than Thursday morning with readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Friday should be a fairly nice day with temperatures in the middle
60s. Another cold front will move into the forecast area Friday
night with a few isolated showers possible over extreme western
sections Friday afternoon. By Friday night scattered showers will
be found across much of the forecast area. The cold front will
move very slowly through the region Saturday and will not clear
the forecast area until Sunday morning. Scattered showers will be
possible both Saturday and Saturday night with rain diminishing
Temperatures will cool some by Sunday afternoon with below normal
temperatures expected to continue into Sunday night and Monday.
Winds should shift back to south by Tuesday morning bringing a
return of milder air with temperatures returning to normal levels
with highs in the low to middle 60s.
18z taf cycle
MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to VFR conditions after
12/21z. Otherwise...VFR conditions and gradually clearing skies
are expected through tonight. Gusty northwest/north winds will
become light and variable late tonight and gradually become
south/southwest winds between 5-8 kts after 13/15z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 52 33 60 44 / 10 0 0 0
mkl 53 27 56 38 / 10 0 0 0
jbr 49 30 59 42 / 10 0 0 0
tup 61 29 58 37 / 20 0 0 0
Arkansas...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Tennessee...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton Tennessee-