Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
301 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
another day of persistence with respect to temperatures and rain
chances across the midsouth...courtesy of an upper level height
ridge over the southeast states. This ridge axis will move off to
Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes by Thursday... as a subtropical
upper low approaches the Carolina Shores from the east.
Rain chances will begin to edge up Thursday afternoon over eastern
Arkansas and the MO bootheel...in closer proximity to weak impulses
embedded in southwest flow aloft. Similar scenario for Friday...with
low rain chances west of the MS river...while upper level ridging
near the western periphery of the Carolinas upper low limits rain
chances to the east.
Rain chances will progressively increase Saturday through Monday...
as diffluent southwesterly flow aloft moves into the lower MS
River Valley. Concurrently...a surface cold front should serve as
a focus for thunderstorms as it drops through the midsouth on
Low humidity and slightly below normal temperatures appear in store from
late Monday through the middle portion of next week.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. South winds
will average mainly between 8-12 kts with a few higher gusts at
mem/jbr...diminish to 3-7 kts after 06/01z...and increase to 7-12
kts after 06/15z.