Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
521 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016
updated for 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 346 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016/
Temperatures are not quite as cold as expected. At 3 am the
coldest readings are in the middle 20s in west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River...with Memphis and Tupelo in the low 30s. Middle
level clouds are shifting east from central Arkansas. This may
help keep temperatures from falling much more west of the
Mississippi River. We should see morning lows in the middle 20s
across most of the area...although a few upper teens are possible
near Paris and Union City Tennessee. Winds are generally 10-15 miles per hour
this morning making temperatures feel quite a bit colder. Wind
chills range from the middle teens to middle 20s. By sunrise the
coldest portions of the midsouth may see wind chills in the single
We will remain under the influence of strong high pressure today
keeping US dry and cold. The center of the high will shift from
near Iowa...into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Overnight
tonight...it will release its grip on the midsouth resulting in
increasing cloud cover and eventually a chance of precipitation.
Guidance temperatures continue to trend warmer Sunday morning.
Warm advection will strengthen overnight tonight as a surface low
develops in the Central Plains strengthening the pressure
gradient between the low and the high over the Ohio Valley.
Southeasterly winds may approach 10 miles per hour by sunrise Sunday
We have backed off on our winter precipitation potential...only
bringing trace amounts of sleet and freezing rain across northern
portions of west Tennessee...the Missouri bootheel and northeast
Arkansas Sunday morning. Given model trends and the strengthening
warm air advection...will hold off on any Winter Weather Advisory. By midday
Sunday we should see above freezing temperatures area wide with
afternoon highs in the middle 30s to near 50 degrees. Any freezing
or frozen precipitation should melt quickly.
A broad trough will setup across the eastern US early next week
as a ridge builds across the western US. Surface high pressure
will set up across the midsouth under northwest flow aloft.
Warmer temperatures will return to the region. Highs Monday should
be near to slightly below normal...in the upper 40s to low
50s...with middle 50s to middle 60s during the middle and later part
of the work week. We may see another chance of rain by next
Saturday...but noting significant looks to be in store over the
next week or so.
VFR weather will persist this period with passing midlevel cloud
cover. Winds will start off northeast around 10 kts with
occasional gusts...but should subside this afternoon and evening
before veering easterly and increasing again overnight. Vcsh late
in the period at jbr with potential MVFR layer developing.