Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1118 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015
Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 837 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015/
Isolated showers that were occurring have dissipated. Lingering
clouds will continue to thin out or move southeast overnight as
high pressure remains over the area. Current forecast looks good.
No update is expected.
Forecast looks to be in good shape. Yesterday between 10 am and the
afternoon high we warmed about 13 degrees...that should put most
of the midsouth in the 94 to 97 degree range. Luckily our dew
points remain about 10 degrees lower than they were last week...so
heat indices will stay below 100. No significant changes needed to
the going forecast.
Previous discussion... /issued 611 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015/
The upper level ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains
will build eastward over the middle south through Tuesday. Surface
high pressure will also move to the east with a return flow
bringing increased humidity back to the region by Monday. Dry
conditions will also continue through Tuesday with high
temperatures reaching the middle to upper 90s each day with lows
in the 60s and 70s. Heat index values should rise to between 100
and 105 degrees both Monday and Tuesday afternoons...but not
expecting heat advisory criteria to be reached at this time.
The upper ridge will break down by Tuesday night into Wednesday as
a middle level shortwave drops out of the Central Plains and moves across
the Tennessee Valley. This should result in increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms by middle week along with slightly cooler
temperatures. A series of shortwaves moving through northwest flow
aloft will keep chances for showers and storms through the end of
next week. The final shortwave moves through Friday and Friday
night which should push a cold front south across the area.
Increased shear and instability may support a few stronger storms
during the middle to end of next week.
High pressure should build into the middle south by next weekend with
a return to mostly dry conditions along with cooler temperatures
and lower humidity levels.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions and light winds will occur through the next 24
hours. Surface moisture is a little higher at kmkl than last night so
added a little more fog with the possibility of IFR visibilities toward