Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
600 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015
Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.
Previous discussion... /issued 303 am CST Sat Nov 28 2015/
Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to middle 60s.
A large area of light to moderate rain covers much of the northern
half of the forecast area.
A cold front currently is across east Arkansas. The front will
continue to move slowly east today. Rain will continue to fall
both along and ahead of the front as well as behind the front.
The heaviest rainfall should fall over portions of northeast
Arkansas where the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.
Temperatures will vary depending on which side of the front you
are located with highs ahead of the front in the 60s to lower 70s
and in the 50s behind the front. The front will move very slowly
east tonight with more rain expected to fall.
By Sunday...the cold front will make more progress east but will
remain over the forecast area so more rain is expected. Rainfall
should not be quite as heavy on Sunday so there is no reason at
this point to extend the watch. Temperatures should be cooler over
more of the forecast area with most areas seeing highs in the
upper 40s to middle 50s. By Sunday night...the cold front will start
to exit the forecast area but more rain is expected to fall.
By Monday...the front will remain over eastern sections of the
forecast area so rain will be expected for both Monday and Monday
night. By Tuesday the cold front will finally exit the forecast
area so the threat of rain will gradually end from west to east
for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
High pressure will finally build into the region by Wednesday
bringing a period of dry weather with below normal temperatures.
This dry and cool pattern will continue into Thursday and Friday.
06z taf cycle
A large precipitation shield associated with a slow moving cold
front encompasses mem...mkl..and jbr sites this morning. Conds
will rapidly deteriorate to IFR/LIFR at these three sites and
remain there throughout the entire taf period. Vlifr conds can be
expected late in the period as ceilings lower even further. The
only exception will be tup...where VFR will remain through late
afternoon. Rain is not expected to move into tup until 29/00z as
the cold front sags south. Thereafter...conds at tup will become
Winds will shift to the north in response to the frontal passage
this afternoon. Jbr will continue to see northerly winds...with
mem and mkl shifting to the north within the next few hours...and
eventually tup later this afternoon.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Clay-Craighead-cross-
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
Tennessee...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for lake.