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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1006 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Discussion...

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures in the 60s. A warm day is in store as temperatures
will reach the 80s over much of the forecast area. Will update the
forecast to remove mention of patchy fog but no big changes are needed.

Ars

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 619 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Discussion...

A weak backdoor cold front will slip into portions of northwest
Tennessee today but will have little effect on the sensible
weather. The front will help to lower dewpoints a few degrees but
otherwise expect dry conditions to continue as the front remains
moisture starved. This front should wash out by later tonight as
upper level high pressure builds east over the middle south.

Dry and unseasonably warm weather will persist through the weekend
and into early next week as upper level high pressure remains
anchored over the region. This should support well above normal
temperatures with highs expected into the lower and middle 80s with
lows in the 50s and 60s through Monday.

The upper ridge will begin to break down by Monday night as an
upper level trough of low pressure moves east from the plains
states into the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Showers and
thunderstorms should develop early Tuesday morning and move
southeastward across the middle south through the day. Considering
the strength of the upper trough and anticipated instability ahead
of a southeastward advancing cold front...a few thunderstorms may
become strong/severe. This system is still several days out...so plenty
of time to refine the details over the next few days. The front
should drop south to a position across the northern Gulf Coast
states by later Wednesday with surface high pressure building in
from the north. This should bring an end to the showers from north
to south through Wednesday.

Dry and cooler weather can be expected Wednesday night and
Thursday. A reinforcing cold front should sweep across the region
Thursday night with strong Canadian high pressure building into
the region on Friday and persisting into the weekend. Medium range
models diverge significantly by next weekend with the European model (ecmwf)
suggesting a closed off upper low moving over the area with the
GFS more progressive and further east with the upper trough. At
this time...have leaned heavily towards the GFS model and
progressive upper pattern. Therefore...kept conditions dry through
next weekend with colder temperatures anticipated through the end
of the extended forecast period.

Jlh

&&

Aviation...
12z taf cycle

MVFR visibilities possible at mkl/tup between 25/12-14z...and
additional potential for fog development and subsequent MVFR to
LIFR conditions at most sites between 26/08-12z. Otherwise...VFR
conditions expected through much of the period. Light winds will
increase to west/northwest winds around 7 kts by 25/14z and become light
after 26/00z.

Cjc

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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