Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1146 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014
updated to add 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 759 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014/
light sprinkles are falling along the Mississippi Tennessee state
line...but much of the rain showing up on radar isn't reaching the
ground. Measurable rainfall is not expected. Temperatures should
not fall off as quickly tonight as they have the past few nights.
Lows will range from the middle 60s to low 50s...with most locations
in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Previous discussion... /issued 640 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014/
Currently...middle and high level moisture is streaming across the
area associated with a exiting weak upper level disturbance. A few
leftover sprinkles and light showers prevail around the region
though most places remain dry. Temperatures range from the middle and lower
70s north to middle and upper 80s across parts of north Mississippi.
Winds are light.
Tonight and Tuesday...a weak cold front will push through tonight
and early Tuesday. The front is weak with little convergence so
not much quantitative precipitation forecast is being produced by the short term models. At this
point hard to justify increasing probability of precipitation beyond 20 percent. Middle and
high level moisture will be replaced by low level moisture as low
clouds move in behind the front later tonight into Tuesday
morning. Low clouds will push south through the day clearing out
of northern areas during the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the
middle 70s north to upper 80s across NE MS.
Tuesday night...high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley
with skies clearing out across a good part of the area. Temperatures
will drop into the 50s across much of west Tennessee to lower 60s in the
Wednesday and Wednesday night...the cold front will lift back
toward eastern Arkansas during this period bringing a chance
of showers and thunderstorms back to the area. The 12z NAM is
really aggressive developing activity along the front across southern
MO/northern Arkansas and moving it southeast into the area. Followed the
more conservative GFS/European model (ecmwf) which are in good agreement with
slight/chance probability of precipitation across mainly the Delta Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night.
Thursday through Saturday...a few leftover showers are possible
early Thursday then upper level high pressure will build in through
Saturday. Expect dry weather and temperatures climbing back to
normal...and maybe a little above...by Saturday.
Sunday and Monday...a cold front will move through with a decent
chance of rain then cooler weather for early next week.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions are anticipated to gradually deteriorate to MVFR
conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning as cold front moves
through the lower Mississippi Valley. Vcsh possible tonight into
Tuesday morning with a potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity at mem and tup mainly
Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions anticipated to return by Tuesday
afternoon. Light SW/west winds will veer north with frontal passage
and increase to 6-8 kts.