Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
302 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
Skies are cloudy across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the middle 20s to middle 30s. An upper level
disturbance will drop south from the upper Mississippi Valley.
This disturbance may produce some light snow mainly across much of
west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. Most locations will not
see any accumulation but some locations near the Tennessee River
may pick up .1 inch of snow. Temperatures will be on the chilly
side with highs in the middle 30s to around 40 degrees.
High pressure will start to build into the region tonight with
dry weather and well below normal temperatures expected. Lows
Wednesday morning will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Wednesday will remain dry as high pressure remains in place.
Temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than today but that
will remain below normal.
By Wednesday night winds will start to shift to a more southerly
direction which will bring milder air in the region. Temperatures
will be a little milder with lows Thursday morning from the middle
20s to lower 30s. Thursday will be warmer as south winds continue
to bring milder air into the region with highs from the lower 40s
to lower 50s. Friday will be a little warmer with temperatures
finally nearing normal levels.
A cold front will drop south into the region on Friday night. With
little if any moisture to deal with ahead of the front no
precipitation is expected. High pressure will build into the
region by Saturday bringing colder air back into the forecast area
for Saturday and Saturday night.
Low pressure is expected to move from northeast New Mexico
southeast into northern Louisiana by Monday morning. As this
system moves toward the region some light precipitation is
possible. Depending on the timing of this precipitation we could
see rain or snow. By Sunday night...any precipitation that falls
should be in the form of light snow. As the low pulls out of the
region on Monday...somewhat milder air is expected to return to
the region. As a result any lingering precipitation should change
over to rain before ending as temperatures warm into the 40s.
06z taf set
VFR weather to continue through the period...with greater
confidence that ceilings will remain VFR at mkl during morning period
of light snow showers. The biggest concern will remain gusty
northwest winds...with the highest gusts at jbr and mem. Winds
will diminish late in the period...with clearing skies.