Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
635 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 423 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
Skies have temporarily cleared across the midsouth other than some
high thin level clouds. Updated the sky cover grids and zone
forecasts to indicate increasing clouds from the west tonight.
Discussion... /issued 332 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
An upper level low pressure will move east from the Texas
Panhandle tonight and across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
valleys through Wednesday. Clouds will increase later tonight with
rain chances for southwestern zones by sunrise. Rain chances will
continue to increase on Tuesday with the greatest rain potential
across areas along and south of Interstate 40. As the low makes
its closest approach Tuesday night...rain chances will increase
areawide. As the upper low pulls east on Wednesday...rain chances
will end from west to east with slow clearing by late in the day.
Temperatures should remain below normal through middle week with
lowered heights...cloud cover...and rain chances.
The lowered middle level heights will be reinforced by another upper
level low pressure system dropping south into the Tennessee Valley
from the Great Lakes region by Thursday. This will keep cool
temperatures in place and bring slight chances for rain showers
across eastern sections near the Tennessee River. This upper level
low should move east by Friday with upper ridging building back
over the middle south from the west.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region
for next weekend. This will result in dry weather conditions along
with temperatures rebounding back to near or slightly above
average for early may.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions should continue for the entire forecast period.
Light rain will start to move into southern sections of the
forecast area by late Tuesday morning and spread north during the
afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 10 to 15
knots for much of the forecast period.