Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
656 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014
updated to lower overnight lows across the north
Evening temperatures across the north falling fast...likely due to
the lingering ice and snow. As of 7pm readings were in the upper
30s...to low 40s. Have lowered overnight lows accordingly. The
remainder of the forecast is currently on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 534 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
abundantly sunny skies today have led to near normal temperatures
across the southern part of the middle-south for the first time in
quite a few days. Latest GOES-r visible satellite imagery shows
the snow and ice pack slowly retreating northward in response to the
warming temperatures. High temperatures are mainly in the upper
50s to lower 60s along and south of I-40 corridor...with low to
upper 40s over the ice pack in northeast Arkansas and northwest
Short term...tonight through Monday...
increased moisture aided by southerly flow from this afternoon will
keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight. Weak ridging will occur
tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
As a result...temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 50s
over the ice pack...with 60s to lower 70s south.
Clouds will begin to increase late tomorrow afternoon as a weak
cold front approaches from the west. Light showers will move into
Jonesboro around Sundown and spread across the rest of the middle-
south by tomorrow evening. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain is
expected. Showers will taper off by early Sunday afternoon from
west to east as high pressure builds in from the north.
Long term...Monday through late next week...
Monday and Tuesday look to be very Spring-like...with slightly
above normal temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another
weak cold front is expected to move into the lower Mississippi
Valley by Tuesday night through Wednesday. Precipitation amounts with
this system look unimpressive at this time. High pressure is expected to
build in by Thursday and remain in place through the weekend
keeping things dry and temperatures seasonal.
00z taf cycle
Middle and high level clouds will move across the region overnight.
Ceilings should continue VFR but as clouds thin some late tonight
there may be some MVFR/IFR visibility reductions in fog. Winds will
remain light southerly to calm overnight.
Lower level cumulus or stratocu should develop ahead of an approaching
front by Saturday afternoon. Still expecting VFR ceilings and visibilities at
all sites except kjbr...where some MVFR ceilings will be possible late
in the taf period. Also isolated showers may occur Saturday
afternoon at kjbr ahead of the front. Southwest winds will
increase areawide by Saturday afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 45 66 44 59 / 0 10 40 20
mkl 39 65 39 57 / 0 10 30 20
jbr 35 58 39 54 / 10 30 60 10
tup 42 69 45 66 / 0 10 20 20