Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
300 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Discussion...
Skies are mostly sunny across much of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Tonight should
remain dry and warm as cold front remains well to the west of the
region. The cold front will only move slowly east during the day
Monday which keep things dry and very warm with highs in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees.
The cold front will inch closer to the region Monday night. Some
of the thunderstorms that develop ahead of the front may reach
northwest sections of the forecast area late Monday night or early
Tuesday morning. By Tuesday the cold front will approach western
Arkansas with a better chance of thunderstorms for mainly western
sections of the forecast area. The front will enter northwest
Arkansas Tuesday night so there will be a better chance of
thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center has much of Arkansas in a slight risk for
severe weather.
By Wednesday...the cold front will be moving into the forecast area
with more thunderstorms possible. The 12z European model (ecmwf) models shows the
cold front will move through the forecast area on Wednesday night
so the chance of rain should decrease some. By Thursday...the cold
front stalls out over central Mississippi leaving a small chance
of thunderstorms over the forecast area for Thursday and Thursday
night.
High pressure will start to build into the region on Friday which
should keep things mainly dry to the upcoming Holiday weekend.
There will still be a chance of an isolated thunderstorm on Friday
and again next Sunday but it appears that most areas will not see
much rain. Temperatures for much of the week from Wednesday
through next Sunday should remain near normal.
Ars
&&
Aviation...
18z taf cycle (19/18z-20/18z)
MVFR ceilings will occur at ktup until 19z...otherwise VFR
conditions will occur at the taf sites this afternoon and
tonight. MVFR ceilings spreading into the area from the south and
southwest after 20/12z. Winds this afternoon at kmem...kjbr...and
kmkl south 10-15 kts with gusts 18-22 kts...winds at ktup S 10 kts.
Winds tonight south 6-12 kts tonight with the the strongest winds
at kmem and kjbr. After 20/12z S-SW winds 10-15 kts...with gusts
to 22 kts at kjbr.
Jcl
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 40
mkl 69 89 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
jbr 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
tup 69 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
