Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
935 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
Upper ridge is building across the region tonight. A couple of
showers have occurred near the Tennessee River otherwise skies are clear.
Conditions are warm and muggy as well with temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Remainder of the
night will be quiet and warm with lows in the 70s. No update
Previous discussion... /issued 243 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
The main story over the next 7 days will be the heat. An isolated
shower/thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out but a strong ridge
and surface high pressure will keep conditions mostly dry.
After a fairly cool first 2/3 of the Summer the heat is now on.
Current temperatures are two to four degrees above where we were
24 hours ago with another 2 degrees or so of warming expected.
Forecast highs may be a degree too warm...but at this point we are
just splitting hairs. Dew points have mixed out...from morning
highs in the middle to upper 70s...down to the low 70s. Resulting
heat indices have been a bit below heat advisory criteria of 105
degrees...but unless dew points continue to decrease...much of the
area will at least approach the 105 degree mark.
Expect more of the same tomorrow...and really each day through the
weekend. Models tend to break down and or move these strong ridges
east faster than what usually occurs...so will rely heavily on
persistence in the forecast. Lows will be in the middle to upper 70s
each day with highs in the middle to upper 90s. For now it looks
like Saturday and or Sunday will be the warmest days with the
warmest areas possibly hitting 99 degrees. Resulting heat indices
will be largely determined by dew points and the amount of
atmospheric mixing we see each day. Heat advisories will likely be
needed...but will be issued on a day by day basis.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period.
Winds will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots early
this evening then diminishing overnight. Winds will remain from
the southwest on Thursday increasing back to 5 to 10 knots in the
late morning hours.