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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
328 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Discussion...

Much milder night across the midsouth with mostly cloudy skies and
breezy south winds. Temperatures were in the middle 40s to upper 50s.
Warm air advection was taking place over the area producing a broken line of
showers just east of the Mississippi River. The best chance for
anything measurable will be across west Tennessee before sunrise.

For today...tonight and Friday...milder weather will be able to
sustain itself for one more day before a cold front seen in
Missouri passes through. Skies will generally be partly sunny as
gusty southwest winds...flirting close to advisory criteria this
morning diminish and veer northwest behind the boundary. Lighter
winds and variable cloudiness are expected tonight with much
cooler lows in the 20s and 30s. High pressure across the Midwest
will keep the region cool and dry tomorrow.

Saturday through Monday...models trending a bit further south with
the push of Arctic air this weekend. A deeper upper trough will
drop out of the Canadian prairie provinces...while the upper low
west of the Baja California moves east into Mexico. The upper flow over our
area will back from northwest to westerly allowing deeper moisture
to surge north out of Texas...and then a right turn east. Thus
clouds will quickly move into the region early Saturday...and with
winds remaining more easterly have trended cooler than forecast
guidance. Models show eastern extent of rain crossing Missouri
Saturday afternoon. This activity may clip portions of northeast
Arkansas and the bootheel region otherwise rain will likely move
into the midsouth Saturday night.

As the approaching wave moves closer on Sunday a surface low will
eject out of Texas and into the southeast states...while a 1040mb
surface high drops into the Dakotas. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have
this solution with the leading edge of the Arctic air reaching the
northwest midsouth counties by afternoon...so have introduced a
rain/snow mix a bit earlier than previously thought. Believe
better chances for any minor snow accumulations will occur in the
evening hours. BUFKIT soundings indicate subfreezing 925mb
temperatures making their way down into north Mississippi before
precipitation shuts off...so with this...plan on wording a snow
threat in the morning severe weather potential statement. Late Sunday night the brunt of the
Arctic air will encompass the region...and with gusty north
winds...windchills will drop into the teens. Clouds will linger
Monday with a few snow flurries possible. It will be cold as highs
for several midsoutherners will only climb into the low 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...southerly winds will push highs back into
the 40s and low 50s. Clouds will increase Tuesday night as models
depict the aforementioned upper low reaching the western Gulf. Any
precipitation for now appears to stay just to our south.

Jab

&&

Aviation...

06z taf cycle

VFR conditions are expected to prevail until late Thursday
morning as a cold front moves through the area. MVFR conditions
expected to develop towards Thursday afternoon after cold frontal
passage. South winds are expected to increase to between 11-15 kts
with gusts up to 22 kts tonight and veer north mainly after
29/17z. Low level wind shear expected to develop at sites overnight as 1500-2000
winds increase to 55kts as a low level jet moves into the lower
Mississippi Valley. North winds will gradually weaken Thursday
evening.

Cjc

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

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