Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
325 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Discussion...

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the middle
south through Saturday. This will keep mainly dry weather along
with hot and humid conditions in place. High temperatures will
reach into the lower to middle 90s each day with seasonably high
humidity that will push afternoon heat index values to between 100
and 104 degrees. Low temperatures should also remain warm with
lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

An upper level low pressure system will cut off along the
southeastern Seaboard over the weekend and move southwest along
the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. As this
occurs...lowering middle level heights across southeastern portions
of the forecast area will lead to isolated mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.
Elsewhere...the upper ridge should remain strong enough to keep
dry conditions ongoing through early next week. Temperatures will
remain above normal along with continued humid conditions.

The upper ridge will break down by the middle of next week as a
shortwave trough digs southeast from the Central Plains into the
lower Mississippi Valley. This should push a cold front slowly
south across the region and help to increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The front should eventually move south of the
area by the end of next week with much cooler and less humid
conditions anticipated by the end of the extended forecast period.

Jlh

&&

Aviation...

06z taf set

VFR conditions generally expected over the next 24 hours.
Although...there could be some patchy fog that reduces visibilities to MVFR
or lower between 8-12z at kmkl...kjbr...and ktup. Winds will be
light and variable through the period.

Krm

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations