Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
946 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Another beautiful morning across the middle-south with temperatures
sitting in the lower 70s as of 9am. Clear sunny skies will
prevail for most of the day and high temperatures will top out in
the upper 80s across the region. Current forecast is on track and
no changes are needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 635 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 244 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
A quiet and peaceful night over the midsouth. Skies were generally
clear...winds have been mostly calm and temperatures were running
about ten degrees below normal. The coolest conditions were across
northwest Tennessee...with upper 50s in Paris.
Upper level heights will begin to build into the area today...
however cool surface high pressure will provide one last fall-
like day. Winds will be light...skies mostly sunny...and highs
will be in the middle and upper 80s. Tonight the high will shift
east...and winds will become southerly.
Saturday and Sunday...models are in good agreement that upper
heights of 592-594 dm will reside over the midsouth this period.
This should quickly send temperatures into the middle 90s for
highs...which for some may turn out to be the hottest day so far
this Summer. These readings coupled with a return of Gulf
moisture...may prompt the need for a heat advisory by Sunday over
portions of the area. In regards to precipitation...Saturday will
be dry...though an approaching upper trough and cold front will
begin to dive south Saturday night. Latest day 2 Storm Prediction Center convective
outlook speculates a possible mesoscale convective system developing in the lower
Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley Saturday evening...trekking east
southeast to the Ohio River through the night. It is feasible
that an outflow from this activity may work its way into northwest
Tennessee towards sunrise Sunday morning generating a slight
threat for a storm. Better chances for rain will arrive with the
front late Sunday afternoon and evening. Quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts by the 00z
models differ though...with the Euro showing zero as the trough
energy shifts more east...weakening the sagging front and holding
the upper ridge cap in place. The GFS and NAM are a bit more
aggressive...showing at least some spark. So for now have kept
rain chances in the forecast...to include a risk for severe
weather. Believe this threat will be best seen over the northern
half of the County Warning Area where lifted indice's in the -8 to -10c range...cape values
above 4000 j/kg...lapse rates of 7c...and precipitable waters approaching 2
inches are all prognosticated. From this damaging winds...large
hail...and localized flash flooding will all be possible. Later in
the night as the front pushes into north Mississippi...the threat
for severe weather should diminish as the upper energy shifts into
the upper Ohio Valley and 850mb winds veer.
Monday through Thursday...drier and cooler air will filter in
from the north on Monday...with just a morning stray shower still
possible across the south. Temperatures will fall back into the
middle and upper 80s for the area with breezy north winds also
returning. Temperatures will run roughly ten degrees below normal
on Tuesday and Wednesday...with continued dry weather. The GFS and
Euro show a disturbance crossing the arklatex Wednesday night and
Thursday. If this holds true our area will see increased cloud
cover and maybe elevated showers in the southwest Delta counties.
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions will persist for most of the forecast period. Some
fog has developed in the kmkl area and will clear up later this
morning. Fog will return to the kmkl area overnight. Winds will be
light and variable for much of the forecast period.