Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
313 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015
Its hot and dry across the midsouth...with another similar day
expected tomorrow. Luckily dew points are not as high as they were
last week when heat indices maxed out in the low 110's. Despite
ambient temperatures as warm as the upper 90s this afternoon and
tomorrow...we do not anticipate the need for any heat advisories
or excessive heat warnings as heat indices are expected to remain
If we can make it through tomorrow without melting or
evaporating...relief is on the way during the middle to later part
of the work week. As the upper ridge responsible for the current
warm temperatures retrogrades...a seasonably strong shortwave
will track through the mean flow approaching the Mississippi River
by midday Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning....with
enhanced probability of precipitation across all of the midsouth during the day
Wednesday. Dynamic energy is minimal...upper jet stream winds are
less than 20 kts...with less than that at the midlevels. All
dynamic support from strong to severe storms will come from positive vorticity advection.
Thermodynamic energy is marginally better. Dew points are expected
to be in the low 70s...supporting convective available potential energy in the 1000-2000 range and
lifted indice's generally -2 to -4c. Widespread severe weather is not
expected. The storm prediction does include most of the midsouth
in a marginal risk for severe weather in their day 3 outlook.
After midweek...the energy from the shortwave will be out of the
equation thus strong or severe storms look even less likely.
Temperatures will be cooler...highs Wednesday may creep into the
middle 90s but high readings should be in the upper 80s to low
90s Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend...temperatures will
creep back up as the ridge builds back across the midsouth...but
remain within a degree or so of normal.
Aviation...18z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
southwesterly winds prevailing.