Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
742 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
Update...a few showers and thunderstorms are skirting extreme
southeastern portions of th midsouth as the remnants of a mesoscale convective vortex
track into central Mississippi. A few showers of thunderstorms
will remain possible for another hour or two but most of the
overnight hours should be dry. Temperatures will cool overnight
into the middle 60s to near 70. Dewpoints should only be a couple of
degrees lower so patchy fog is possible.
Previous discussion... /issued 620 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
Midafternoon klzk radar showed a convective cluster moving
east/southeast across central Arkansas. This convection was aided by a
remnant mesoscale convective vortex which formed from a larger mesoscale convective system over northeast OK early
this morning. These storms should continue east/southeast...
possibly affecting the Delta southwest of Memphis late this
afternoon/early evening. Convective inhibition and waning
instability should limit thunderstorm potential over the Delta to
a few hours. Will need to monitor for
For the broader picture...a low amplitude upper trough over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will lift out through Friday
afternoon....allowing a Southern Plains upper ridge to edge
eastward into the lower MS River Valley and midsouth. Dry and warm
conditions will prevail...with the weekend likely holding the
warmest temperatures over the next week. GFS MOS guidance appears to have
a warm bias and have undercut for maximum temperatures.
The upper level ridge will begin to retrograde to the southwest
U.S. By Sunday...in response to significant height falls over
over the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
models depict a double lobe upper low...with a 554dm 500mb low
centered over Michigan midday Tuesday. In the interim... expect
northwest flow to bring increasing rain changes late Sunday into
Monday. A cold frontal passage will bring better rain chances
Monday night...with cooler and dry conditions spreading through
the midsouth by late Tuesday...persisting through the latter half
of next week.
Aviation...00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail...the exception will be MVFR
visibility in fog at kmkl and ktup before sunrise. Light winds overnight
will trend to a more southwest component late in the period.