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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND SUNRISE...HRRR SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA MAY BE
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
STORM CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA LINE. THUS WILL KEEP 20 POPS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN'T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE. 

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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