Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
400 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015
Seasonably cool temperatures will continue today and
tonight. Freeze and frost watches and warnings have been issued
for this morning and Sunday morning. Current temperatures are in
the 30s across most of the midsouth...but as cold as the middle
20s in the Tennessee River valley. Some very light rain and snow
is falling across the region...mainly from the Missouri bootheel
into west central Tennessee. Coverage and intensity should
increase a bit through the morning hours as a vorticity maximum tracks from
southwest Missouri to near the Memphis area. No snow accumulation
is expected and rainfall totals should be minimal...no more than a
few hundredths of an inch. The best rain chances will likely shift
to the south and east...into north Mississippi this afternoon as a
region of negative vorticity advection shifts across east Arkansas. Highs today will be in
the 40s area wide...around 20-25 degrees below normal.
Precipitation will end area wide tonight. Temperatures will
remain seasonably cool...15-20 degrees below normal...ranging from
the middle 20s to middle 30s. Highs Sunday will approach seasonal
normals...in the 60s area wide.
During the upcoming work week...near to above normal temperatures
are expected. A gradual warming trend is expected each day through
Thursday...with a cold front expected to cool things down a bit
Friday into next weekend. Northeast flow early in the work week
will gradually transition to zonal flow by the later half of the
week. No overly organized weather systems are expected...the cold
front late in the work week looks unimpressive...the coldest
readings behind the front might fall into the upper 30s...but most
of the midsouth will be in the 40s. No freezing temperatures are
expected. Prior to the cold front...scattered rain showers and a
few thunderstorms are expected each day Monday through Thursday.
The highest rain chances are expected Wednesday. No strong or
severe storms are expected.
06z taf cycle
Broken middle level clouds will continue to overspread the taf sites
from northwest to southeast through the early morning hours of
Saturday. VFR ceilings and visibilities will be the rule though through
sunrise Saturday morning with light northeast winds.
As the shortwave moves across the region...there will be a period
of rain and potentially even a few snow showers at the taf sites.
The greatest potential for measurable precipitation Saturday
morning will be at kjbr and kmem. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be
possible during moderate showers. Further east...lesser chances
for precipitation is expected with mainly VFR ceilings at kmkl...but
there may still be a period of afternoon MVFR ceilings at ktup along
with isolated showers. Winds should become increasingly
northeasterly and easterly through the day but remain fairly light
at 7 kts or less.
Skies will scatter out areawide Saturday evening with VFR ceilings and
visibilities returning to all locations. Winds will become southeasterly
and remain light.
Arkansas...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Clay-
Freeze warning until 7 am CDT this morning for Mississippi.
MO...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
Freeze warning until 7 am CDT this morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Alcorn-
Freeze warning until 7 am CDT this morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Frost advisory until 7 am CDT this morning for Itawamba-
Tennessee...freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Benton
Freeze warning until 7 am CDT this morning for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-