Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
653 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Discussion...

Updated for 12z aviation discussion

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014/

Discussion...

Skies are partly cloudy mainly over western and southern sections
of the forecast area with mostly clear skies elsewhere.
Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 50s to the
middle 70s. High pressure remains over the northern plains which will
keep things dry and unseasonably cool for today through Wednesday
morning.

An upper level disturbance is expected to track central Kansas and
into northwest Arkansas on Wednesday. This disturbance will
produce some thunderstorm activity with some of these thunderstorms
possibly moving into western sections of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon. As this disturbance moves through western
Arkansas Wednesday evening...more thunderstorms will be possible
across most of the forecast area. This disturbance will finally
turn east and move across northern Mississippi on Thursday so
there will still be a chance of thunderstorms with north
Mississippi having the best chance of seeing rain.

A weak surface trough will move through the region Friday and
Saturday which will be bring at least a small chance of
thunderstorms mainly over southern and eastern sections of the
forecast area. This trough is expected to stall out across middle
Tennessee Sunday and Monday so there will still be a small chance
of thunderstorms over eastern and southern sections of the
forecast area.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal for much of the
forecast period.

&&

Aviation...

12z taf cycle

VFR conds will prevail. North/NE winds 7-9kts by middle morning will
diminish this evening.

Sjm

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations