Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
359 am CDT Sat Jul 26 2014
early morning temperatures range from the low 60s to low 70s
across the midsouth...coolest in west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River and warmest in east Arkansas and along the Mississippi River
valley near and south of Memphis. Some patchy fog has developed in
north Mississippi with visibility as low as one quarter of a mile.
Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise this morning and
temperatures will warm quickly. Model guidance suggests today
could be one of the warmest days so far this Summer with highs in
the middle to upper 90s. Based on recent model biases and a fairly
cool start to the day...will shave a few degrees off of guidance
forecasting highs in the low to middle 90s. No rain is expected.
Sunday should be even warmer with middle 90s area wide. Heat
indices should be in the 100-103 range...just below heat advisory
criteria. A cold front will sweep across the midsouth late Sunday.
A few thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon along and
ahead of the cold front...continuing into tomorrow night. Any
storms that develop will be strong...possible severe capable of
producing damaging wind...possibly large hail and localized heavy
rainfall. The greatest chance of severe thunderstorms will be in
west Tennessee near the Tennessee River.
Early next week deep longwave trough will dig across the eastern
half of the nation. Temperatures will turn cooler...2-5 degrees
below normal across most of the midsouth. Mostly dry conditions
are expected during the upcoming work week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will become more likely later in the work week as
temperatures trend warmer...but no organized weather systems are
expected. High temperatures should remain in the 80s across most
of the midsouth during the upcoming work week.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions for forecast period with the exception of overnight
when some fog/mist will develops for a short period of time before
sunrise. Winds will increase on Saturday a little and should stay
up even into Saturday night. However...Tupelo the winds Saturday
evening will decrease...however...will not be calm. Tlsjr